Irrationality or efficiency of macroeconomic survey forecasts? Implications from the anchoring bias test

We analyze the quality of macroeconomic survey forecasts. Recent findings indicate that they are anchoring biased. This irrationality would challenge the results of a wide range of empirical studies, e.g., in asset pricing, volatility clustering or market liquidity, which rely on survey data to capture market participants' expectations. We contribute to the existing literature in two ways. First, we show that the cognitive bias is a statistical artifact. Despite highly significant anchoring coefficients a bias adjustment does not improve forecasts' quality. To explain this counterintuitive result we take a closer look at macroeconomic analysts' information processing abilities. We find that analysts benefit from the use of an extensive information set, neglected in the anchoring bias test. Exactly this information advantage drives the misleading anchoring bias test results. Second, we find that the superior information aggregation capabilities enable analysts to easily outperform sophisticated timeseries forecasts and therefore survey forecasts should clearly be favored. --macroeconomic announcements,efficiency of forecasts,anchoring bias,rationality of analysts

COSMOGRAIL: the COSmological MOnitoring of GRAvItational Lenses XV. Assessing the achievability and precision of time-delay measurements

COSMOGRAIL is a long-term photometric monitoring of gravitationally lensed QSOs aimed at implementing Refsdal's time-delay method to measure cosmological parameters, in particular H0. Given long and well sampled light curves of strongly lensed QSOs, time-delay measurements require numerical techniques whose quality must be assessed. To this end, and also in view of future monitoring programs or surveys such as the LSST, a blind signal processing competition named Time Delay Challenge 1 (TDC1) was held in 2014. The aim of the present paper, which is based on the simulated light curves from the TDC1, is double. First, we test the performance of the time-delay measurement techniques currently used in COSMOGRAIL. Second, we analyse the quantity and quality of the harvest of time delays obtained from the TDC1 simulations. To achieve these goals, we first discover time delays through a careful inspection of the light curves via a dedicated visual interface. Our measurement algorithms can then be applied to the data in an automated way. We show that our techniques have no significant biases, and yield adequate uncertainty estimates resulting in reduced chi2 values between 0.5 and 1.0. We provide estimates for the number and precision of time-delay measurements that can be expected from future time-delay monitoring campaigns as a function of the photometric signal-to-noise ratio and of the true time delay. We make our blind measurements on the TDC1 data publicly availableComment: 11 pages, 8 figures, published in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Cricket Flour-Laden Millet Flour Blends' Physical and Chemical Composition and Adaptation in Dried Pasta Products

Increasing the protein and antioxidant content of food products is a constant challenge amongst researchers. Dried pasta products are popular amongst all groups of society. The most important factor in pasta processing is the quality of the flour. Millet (Panicum miliaceum) flour has high nutritional value, enriching it with cricket (Gryllus bimaculatus) flour is good choice to increase the quality of protein composition and antioxidant properties of products. Flour mixtures of millet and insect flours (5% and 10%) were analysed after mixing and pasta processing. Addition of wheat gluten improved both texture and nutrition value of pasta products. Total polyphenol content, antioxidant capacity, total protein content, free and total amino acid composition were studied. Quality analysis of dried pasta products were carried out according to Hungarian standards. Data was analysed with Kruskal-Wallis test, Dunn's pair-wise post hoc test was used with Bonferroni correction. The correlation was determined by Spearman's rank. Addition of cricket flour modified the pH, acid value, moisture content, and colour of the samples, these changes lasted during storage. Enrichment could increase the total phenol content significantly even at the low level of 10%. Heat treatment during pasta processing had negative effect on the antioxidant capacity except at higher cricket flour contents. Cricket flour's high protein content proportionately increased millet flour's, thus pasta products'. Dried pasta products passed all quality norms. Enrichment of millet flour with cricket flour is favourable from both nutritional and quality aspects

False alarm reduction in critical care

High false alarm rates in the ICU decrease quality of care by slowing staff response times while increasing patient delirium through noise pollution. The 2015 PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge provides a set of 1250 multi-parameter ICU data segments associated with critical arrhythmia alarms, and challenges the general research community to address the issue of false alarm suppression using all available signals. Each data segment was 5 minutes long (for real time analysis), ending at the time of the alarm. For retrospective analysis, we provided a further 30 seconds of data after the alarm was triggered. A total of 750 data segments were made available for training and 500 were held back for testing. Each alarm was reviewed by expert annotators, at least two of whom agreed that the alarm was either true or false. Challenge participants were invited to submit a complete, working algorithm to distinguish true from false alarms, and received a score based on their program's performance on the hidden test set. This score was based on the percentage of alarms correct, but with a penalty that weights the suppression of true alarms five times more heavily than acceptance of false alarms. We provided three example entries based on well-known, open source signal processing algorithms, to serve as a basis for comparison and as a starting point for participants to develop their own code. A total of 38 teams submitted a total of 215 entries in this year's Challenge. This editorial reviews the background issues for this challenge, the design of the challenge itself, the key achievements, and the follow-up research generated as a result of the Challenge, published in the concurrent special issue of Physiological Measurement. Additionally we make some recommendations for future changes in the field of patient monitoring as a result of the Challenge.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant R01-GM104987)National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U.S.) (Grant U01-EB-008577)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant R01-EB-001659

Menjaga Kualitas Pembelajaran Praktikum Pengolahan Data Secara Daring pada Mata Pelatihan Analisis dan Interpretasi Data

[MAINTAINING THE QUALITY OF LEARNING DATA PROCESSING PRACTICUM IN SUBJECT OF TRAINING DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION]. Online learning during the SARS-CoV2 virus pandemic is a necessity in order to avoid the spread of the virus. But in its implementation, it becomes a challenge, especially in practicum learning. The implementation of online training is a response to the situation and conditions in the SARS-CoV2 virus pandemic which forces classical training to migrate to online training. The purpose of this study was conducted to find out what factors support the achievement of learning objectives, in classical learning, e-learning, and whether the learning strategies that have been applied in e-learning can maintain the quality of training. The instrument in this study was an assessment of the evaluation of learning from participants for the facilitator, on 3 waves of classical PPJFP and 3 waves of PPJFP e-learning, with a total of 126 training participants as respondents. Data processing and analysis were carried out by simple regression analysis, to find out the factors that influence the achievement of learning objectives; as well as an independent sample t-test to compare classical learning methods (face to face) and e-learning. The results showed that the systematic presentation of learning materials and the ability to present the material were the spearheads in the achievement of face-to-face learning. In synchronous learning through the E-learning Platform, aspects of how the facilitator answers questions are important points in learning through e-learning; and e-learning at the syncronus stage is able to maintain the quality of learning

Explaining Quality Differences at the Procurement Stage in the Polish Milk Sector

The challenge of implementing EU quality and safety standards for food production and trading is one of the driving forces behind the restructuring of the agrofood chains in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC). The progress made in the compliance process not only varies amongst sectors and countries, but also among particular chains due to differences in their internal structure and strategies, and features of their political and economic surroundings. We construct a models to identify determinants of the diffusion rate of standards in a food chain under pre-accession conditions. We argue that adoption decisions in the food chain are determined by farmers' and processors' economic considerations. Factors such as pricing behavior, compliance costs and market structure, all of which influence the adoption of standards, are identified and discussed in the paper. The findings are used to test an econometric model utilizing data on Polish milk processing firms in the period between 2000 and 2002. The results indicate that input and output prices have a significant influence on the diffusion rate of standards. The dominance of large-scale holdings in the relevant procurement market significantly increases, whereas high compliance costs decrease the diffusion. Small cooperatives were found to face significant problems in procuring high quality raw materials compared to their competitors. The material in the paper will be converted into a single sheet, as recommended in the conference instructions for preparing a poster presentation. Please find attached the rough layout of our poster presentation.product quality, standards, EU enlargement, industrial organization, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,