The Attrition Dynamics of Multilateral War

We extend classical force-on-force combat models to study the attrition dynamics of three-way and multilateral war. We introduce a new multilateral combat model (the multiduel) which generalizes the Lanchester models, and solve it under an objective function which values one's own surviving force minus that of one's enemies. The outcome is stark: either one side is strong enough to destroy all the others combined, or all sides are locked in a stalemate which results in collective mutual annihilation. The situation in Syria fits this paradigm

Climate change in game theory

The study provides an overview of the application possibilities of game theory to climate change. The characteristics of games are adapted to the topics of climate and carbon. The importance of uncertainty, probability, marginal value of adaptation, common pool resources, etc. are tailored to the context of international relations and the challenge of global warming

Climate change in game theory context

The aim of this paper is to survey the game theory modelling of the behaviour of global players in mitigation and adaptation related to climate change. Three main fields are applied for the specific aspects of temperature rise: behaviour games, CPR problem and negotiation games. The game theory instruments are useful in analyzing strategies in uncertain circumstances, such as the occurrence and impacts of climate change. To analyze the international players’ relations, actions, attitude toward carbon emission, negotiation power and motives, several games are applied for the climate change in this paper. The solution is surveyed, too, for externality problem

When Are Stabilizations Delayed? Alesina-Drazen Revisited

In an influential article, Alesina and Drazen (1991) model delay of stabilization as the result of a struggle between political groups supporting reform plans with different distributional implications. In this paper we show that ex ante asymmetries in the costs of delay for the groups will reduce the probability of conflict and will lead to a shorter expected delay. Accurate common information about the cost of delay may lead to no delay at all. In an asymmetric conflict, a wider divergence in the distributional implications of reform will reduce the probability of conflict but will lead to a longer expected delay.Stabilization delay, economic reforms, war of attrition

The economic dimensions of prolonged occupation: continuity and change in Israeli policy towards the Palestinian economy

- There is no Israeli economic policy towards the Palestinian people or the occupied territory; rather there is a policy to maintain occupation and administration of the Palestinian territory by whatever means available, including economic strategies; - Israeli strategies deployed since 1967 have included economic inducements to improve the quality of life, devolution, and other schemes focused on promoting individual welfare but not preventing communal poverty; - The Oslo Accords and the Paris Protocol on Economic Relations (PER) of 1994 formalized the de facto customs union in operation under occupation and locked in the adverse path of dependence of the Palestinian economy upon Israel; - Palestinian Authority institutions have been unable to establish sovereign or even autonomous institutions capable of expanding the space for economic policymaking and for economic polices promoting long-term development; - The effects of Israel’s dual strategy of skewed economic integration coupled with physical separation has led, over forty years, to divergence in per capita incomes between Israel and the territory, rather than the convergence promised by economic theory and the premises of the customs union; - Instead of continuing to repeatedly reform the facades of interim self-government, all efforts should aim to form the sovereign institutions for statehood; - New Israeli overtures under the heading of “economic peace” risk not only diverting attention from political processes, but also hark back to an era of Israeli domination of the Palestinian economy, which demonstrably failed; - Though the PER may have outlived its design and usefulness, it can only be superseded if a fundamentally different framework is envisaged, rooted in ensuring Palestinian sovereignty, statehood and economic viability; - A Palestinian economic strategy for sovereignty and peace would entail seeking recognition of the Palestinian economy as a separate customs territory, and would become the reference point for formulation of economic policy, institution-building, decision-making, and international economic relations; - Such a status would offer a platform for building a viable, vibrant and secure national economy for the envisioned State of Palestine, governed by a framework which adheres, among other principles, to the multilateral rules and disciplines embodied in the World Trade Organization; - Only through a Palestinian economic policy framework that is predicated on the separate, internationally recognized status of the economy of the occupied territory, which in turn helps to create the conditions to end occupation, can a viable Palestinian economy and a sovereign State emerge to deliver the promise of peace.Palestinian economy, occupied Palestinian territories

'Imperial doxa from the Berlin republic' [Review] Herfried Münkler (2005) Imperien: Die Logik der Weltherrschaft—vom Alten Rom bis zu den Vereinigten Staaten

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Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences

This is an open access book. Lewis F Richardson (1981-1953), a physicist by training, was a pioneer in meteorology and peace research and remains a towering presence in both fields. This edited volume reviews his work and assesses its influence in the social sciences, notably his work on arms races and their consequences, mathematical models, the size distribution of wars, and geographical features of conflict. It contains brief bibliographies of his main publications and of articles and books written about Richardson and his work and discusses his continuing influence in peace research and international relations as well as his attitude to the ethical responsibilities of a scientist. It will be of interest to a wide range of scholars. This book includes 11 chapters written by Nils Petter Gleditsch, Dina A Zinnes, Ron Smith, Paul F Diehl, Kelly Kadera, Mark Crescenzi, Michael D Ward, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Nils B Weidmann, Jürgen Scheffran, Niall MacKay, Aaron Clauset, Michael Spagat and Stijn van Weezel. Lewis F Richardson occupied an important position in two academic fields as different as meteorology and peace research, with academic prizes awarded in both disciplines. In peace research, he pioneered the use of mathematical models and the meticulous compilation of databases for empirical research. As a quaker and pacifist, he refused to work in preparations for war, paid a heavy prize in terms of his career, and (at least in the social sciences) was fully recognized as a pioneering scholar only posthumously with the publication of two major books. Lewis Fry Richardson is one of the 20th century’s greatest but least appreciated thinkers—a creative physicist, psychologist, meteorologist, applied mathematician, historian, pacifist, statistician, and witty stylist. If you’ve heard of weather prediction, chaos, fractals, cliometrics, peace science, big data, thick tails, or black swans, then you have benefited from Richardson’s prescience in bringing unruly phenomena into the ambit of scientific understanding. Richardson’s ideas continue to be relevant today, and this collection is a superb retrospective on this brilliant and lovable man. Steven Pinker, Johnstone Professor, Harvard University, and the author of The Better Angels of Our Nature and Enlightenment No