Predicting User-Interactions on Reddit

In order to keep up with the demand of curating the deluge of crowd-sourced content, social media platforms leverage user interaction feedback to make decisions about which content to display, highlight, and hide. User interactions such as likes, votes, clicks, and views are assumed to be a proxy of a content's quality, popularity, or news-worthiness. In this paper we ask: how predictable are the interactions of a user on social media? To answer this question we recorded the clicking, browsing, and voting behavior of 186 Reddit users over a year. We present interesting descriptive statistics about their combined 339,270 interactions, and we find that relatively simple models are able to predict users' individual browse- or vote-interactions with reasonable accuracy.Comment: Presented at ASONAM 201

Competing contagion processes: Complex contagion triggered by simple contagion

Empirical evidence reveals that contagion processes often occur with competition of simple and complex contagion, meaning that while some agents follow simple contagion, others follow complex contagion. Simple contagion refers to spreading processes induced by a single exposure to a contagious entity while complex contagion demands multiple exposures for transmission. Inspired by this observation, we propose a model of contagion dynamics with a transmission probability that initiates a process of complex contagion. With this probability nodes subject to simple contagion get adopted and trigger a process of complex contagion. We obtain a phase diagram in the parameter space of the transmission probability and the fraction of nodes subject to complex contagion. Our contagion model exhibits a rich variety of phase transitions such as continuous, discontinuous, and hybrid phase transitions, criticality, tricriticality, and double transitions. In particular, we find a double phase transition showing a continuous transition and a following discontinuous transition in the density of adopted nodes with respect to the transmission probability. We show that the double transition occurs with an intermediate phase in which nodes following simple contagion become adopted but nodes with complex contagion remain susceptible.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure

Performance Analysis of Online Social Platforms

We introduce an original mathematical model to analyze the diffusion of posts within a generic online social platform. Each user of such a platform has his own Wall and Newsfeed, as well as his own self-posting and re-posting activity. As a main result, using our developed model, we derive in closed form the probabilities that posts originating from a given user are found on the Wall and Newsfeed of any other. These probabilities are the solution of a linear system of equations. Conditions of existence of the solution are provided, and two ways of solving the system are proposed, one using matrix inversion and another using fixed-point iteration. Comparisons with simulations show the accuracy of our model and its robustness with respect to the modeling assumptions. Hence, this article introduces a novel measure which allows to rank users by their influence on the social platform, by taking into account not only the social graph structure, but also the platform design, user activity (self- and re-posting), as well as competition among posts.Comment: Preliminary version of accepted paper at INFOCOM 2019 (Paris, France

Cascades: A view from Audience

Cascades on online networks have been a popular subject of study in the past decade, and there is a considerable literature on phenomena such as diffusion mechanisms, virality, cascade prediction, and peer network effects. However, a basic question has received comparatively little attention: how desirable are cascades on a social media platform from the point of view of users? While versions of this question have been considered from the perspective of the producers of cascades, any answer to this question must also take into account the effect of cascades on their audience. In this work, we seek to fill this gap by providing a consumer perspective of cascade. Users on online networks play the dual role of producers and consumers. First, we perform an empirical study of the interaction of Twitter users with retweet cascades. We measure how often users observe retweets in their home timeline, and observe a phenomenon that we term the "Impressions Paradox": the share of impressions for cascades of size k decays much slower than frequency of cascades of size k. Thus, the audience for cascades can be quite large even for rare large cascades. We also measure audience engagement with retweet cascades in comparison to non-retweeted content. Our results show that cascades often rival or exceed organic content in engagement received per impression. This result is perhaps surprising in that consumers didn't opt in to see tweets from these authors. Furthermore, although cascading content is widely popular, one would expect it to eventually reach parts of the audience that may not be interested in the content. Motivated by our findings, we posit a theoretical model that focuses on the effect of cascades on the audience. Our results on this model highlight the balance between retweeting as a high-quality content selection mechanism and the role of network users in filtering irrelevant content

Characterizing Attention Cascades in WhatsApp Groups

An important political and social phenomena discussed in several countries, like India and Brazil, is the use of WhatsApp to spread false or misleading content. However, little is known about the information dissemination process in WhatsApp groups. Attention affects the dissemination of information in WhatsApp groups, determining what topics or subjects are more attractive to participants of a group. In this paper, we characterize and analyze how attention propagates among the participants of a WhatsApp group. An attention cascade begins when a user asserts a topic in a message to the group, which could include written text, photos, or links to articles online. Others then propagate the information by responding to it. We analyzed attention cascades in more than 1.7 million messages posted in 120 groups over one year. Our analysis focused on the structural and temporal evolution of attention cascades as well as on the behavior of users that participate in them. We found specific characteristics in cascades associated with groups that discuss political subjects and false information. For instance, we observe that cascades with false information tend to be deeper, reach more users, and last longer in political groups than in non-political groups.Comment: Accepted as a full paper at the 11th International ACM Web Science Conference (WebSci 2019). Please cite the WebSci versio

SEISMIC: A Self-Exciting Point Process Model for Predicting Tweet Popularity

Social networking websites allow users to create and share content. Big information cascades of post resharing can form as users of these sites reshare others' posts with their friends and followers. One of the central challenges in understanding such cascading behaviors is in forecasting information outbreaks, where a single post becomes widely popular by being reshared by many users. In this paper, we focus on predicting the final number of reshares of a given post. We build on the theory of self-exciting point processes to develop a statistical model that allows us to make accurate predictions. Our model requires no training or expensive feature engineering. It results in a simple and efficiently computable formula that allows us to answer questions, in real-time, such as: Given a post's resharing history so far, what is our current estimate of its final number of reshares? Is the post resharing cascade past the initial stage of explosive growth? And, which posts will be the most reshared in the future? We validate our model using one month of complete Twitter data and demonstrate a strong improvement in predictive accuracy over existing approaches. Our model gives only 15% relative error in predicting final size of an average information cascade after observing it for just one hour.Comment: 10 pages, published in KDD 201

Phantom cascades: The effect of hidden nodes on information diffusion

Research on information diffusion generally assumes complete knowledge of the underlying network. However, in the presence of factors such as increasing privacy awareness, restrictions on application programming interfaces (APIs) and sampling strategies, this assumption rarely holds in the real world which in turn leads to an underestimation of the size of information cascades. In this work we study the effect of hidden network structure on information diffusion processes. We characterise information cascades through activation paths traversing visible and hidden parts of the network. We quantify diffusion estimation error while varying the amount of hidden structure in five empirical and synthetic network datasets and demonstrate the effect of topological properties on this error. Finally, we suggest practical recommendations for practitioners and propose a model to predict the cascade size with minimal information regarding the underlying network.Comment: Preprint submitted to Elsevier Computer Communication