Command Economy after the Shocks of Opening up: The Factors of Adjustment and Specialisation in the Czech Trade

This analysis focuses on factors determining the transition of international trade in the Czech economy. Even though the Czech economy was exposed to several structural shocks during 1993–2002 and grew at a very low rate, its external trade flows sustained an annual growth at around 10%. The restructuring in the pattern of specialisation with the EU-15 was exceptionally intensive and our results confirm that its progress can be explained by the variables used in the theories of open economies. The undergoing changes were profound and painful, but their positive final outcome is undisputable. In the econometric part of this study we quantify the determining factors of Czech exports and imports during 1993–2002 when the trade flows have undergone intensive structural and qualitative changes facilitating the trade creation. Our findings lend significance to the variables of aggregate demand and the real exchange rate, in addition to liberalisation of tariffs, evolution of unit prices of exports and imports, changes in quality, diversion in factor usage and economies of scale. Unimpeded opening-up can be a crucial driver of an in-depth restructuring, which brings positive results from the very start, even though its spillovers into an overall fast growth can be delayed.industrial specialisation; export and import dynamics; dynamic estimation; trade determinants

Openness and isolation: the trade performance of the former Soviet Central Asian countries

Previous studies characterize some of the Former Soviet Central Asian countries (CACs) as “more open” (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan) and others as “more isolated” (Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) depending on their trade-over-GDP ratio. Being an open or isolationist economy has resulted respectively in more or less suitable environment for business and investment. We investigate the drivers of CACs trade performance by measuring contributions of country-specific properties and networking factors in 185 bilateral CACs trade flows over the period 1995-2011. We find that, even though all CACs’ trade has increased greatly since 1995, for the more open economies (Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan) trade changes are mainly explained by networking (bilateral) factors while for isolationist economies (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) changes in trade are mostly explained by country-specific properties

Openness and isolation: the trade performance of the former Soviet Central Asian countries

Previous studies characterize some of the Former Soviet Central Asian countries (CACs) as “more open” (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan) and others as “more isolated” (Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) depending on their trade-over-GDP ratio. Being an open or isolationist economy has resulted respectively in more or less suitable environment for business and investment. We investigate the drivers of CACs trade performance by measuring contributions of country-specific properties and networking factors in 185 bilateral CACs trade flows over the period 1995-2011. We find that, even though all CACs’ trade has increased greatly since 1995, for the more open economies (Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan) trade changes are mainly explained by networking (bilateral) factors while for isolationist economies (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) changes in trade are mostly explained by country-specific properties

"This isthmus of a middle state" : the suburban fiction of John Cheever, John Updike and Richard Ford

Niniejsza praca stanowi studium rozwoju literatury suburbiów w USA, od zaistnienia tego gatunku w latach czterdziestych dwudziestego wieku do początku wieku dwudziestego pierwszego. Twórczość omawianych pisarzy: Johna Cheevera, Johna Updike’a i Richarda Forda usytuowana jest na tle zmian społecznych tego okresu, szczególnie rozwoju amerykańskich miast. Ze względu na związki tej literatury z tradycją realistyczną badane są przejawy realizmu w dziełach wymienionych autorów, od mityzujących tendencji prozy Cheevera, przez „rokokowy” realizm Updike’a, do Forda postmodernistycznej wizji miejsca jako produktu kapitalistycznej gospodarki. W tym kontekście mieszczą się również refleksje na temat związków pomiędzy klasą średnią jako formacją świadomości a kulturą masową i konsumeryzmem. Krytycznym i teoretycznoliterackim punktem odniesienia dla tych rozważań są koncepcje Lionela Trillinga i Johna Gardnera. W przypadku pierwszego z nich omawiane są: jego teoria powieści jako gatunku traktującego o stratyfikacji społecznej, jego rozumienie realizmu oscylujące pomiędzy prawdą wizji intelektualnej i prawdą wizji społecznej, a także wykładnia liberalizmu jako postawy badawczej, akcentującej synkretyzm i sceptycyzm. Jeśli chodzi o Johna Gardnera, to uwaga poświęcona jest jego koncepcji „literatury moralnej”, a szczególnie konserwatywnej interpretacji kondycji literatury współczesnej. Postulując renesans potrójnego ideału Dobra, Piękna i Prawdy, próbuje on doprowadzić do integracji tego ideału z wrażliwością chrześcijańską. Kwestią badaną w odniesieniu do trzech pisarzy wymienionych w tytule jest stosunek establishmentu intelektualnego, a szczególnie krytyki literackiej, do suburbiów. Tu ujawnia się pewne napięcie pomiędzy krytyką tej formy urbanistycznej jako wyjaławiającej duchowo i prowadzącej do filistynizmu połączonego z tendencją do nadmiernego konserwatyzmu z jednej strony, z drugiej zaś — faktem, iż większość Amerykanów, również elity artystyczne i naukowe, wychowała się i żyje na terenach podmiejskich. W odniesieniu do tej ambiwalencji omawiany jest stosunek Cheevera, Updike’a i Forda do suburbiów jako takich, a także estetyka ich utworów, wizja społeczeństwa oraz psychologia postaci

Debating the Quad

In this Centre of Gravity paper, six of Australia’s leading scholars and policy experts debate Australian participation in the ‘Australia-India-Japan-United States consultations on the Indo-Pacific’ - known universally as the ‘Quad’. A decade since its first iteration, the revival of the Quad presents significant questions for Australia and the regional order. Is the Quad a constructive partnership of the region’s major powers to safeguard regional stability, uphold the rules-based order and promote security cooperation? Is it a concert of democracies seeking to contain China? Or is it an emerging strategic alignment that risks precipitating the very confrontation with China it seeks to avoid? Or is it something else entirely

Strategic deterrence redux Nuclear weapons and European security

One of the most notable consequences of the end of the Cold War was the diminished role of nuclear weapons in international relations. The world’s primary nuclear weapon powers, the United States and the Russian Federation, made considerable reductions in their nuclear forces. The climax of the process was the New START Treaty signed in 2010. Now, the optimism that characterized the first decades of the post-Cold War era is rapidly evaporating. Geopolitical competition again dominates global and regional security dynamics. Nuclear powers are modernizing their forces and introducing novel systems that may affect strategic stability. At the same time, existing arms control regimes are crumbling. This report takes stock of recent developments in deterrence in general, and nuclear deterrence in particular. Its main ambition is to understand how deterrence has changed in light of certain post-Cold War trends, particularly in Europe. To this end, the report introduces the basic principles of deterrence. It also explores the nuclear-related policies and capabilities of the four nuclear weapon states most directly involved in European security affairs – Russia, the United States, France, and the United Kingdom. Importantly, the report also analyses the implications of the recent trends in strategic deterrence for Northern Europe