The quality of social simulation : an example from research policy

This contribution deals with the assessment of the quality of a simulation. After discussing this issue on a general level, we apply and test the assessment mechanisms using an example from policy modelling

Safe food and feed through an integrated toolbox for mycotoxin management: the MyToolBox approach

There is a pressing need to mobilise the wealth of knowledge from the international mycotoxin research conductedover the past 25-30 years, and to perform cutting-edge research where knowledge gaps still exist. This knowledgeneeds to be integrated into affordable and practical tools for farmers and food processors along the chain inorder to reduce the risk of mycotoxin contamination of crops, feed and food. This is the mission of MyToolBox – a four-year project which has received funding from the European Commission. It mobilises a multi-actorpartnership (academia, farmers, technology small and medium sized enterprises, food industry and policystakeholders) to develop novel interventions aimed at achieving a significant reduction in crop losses due tomycotoxin contamination. Besides a field-to-fork approach, MyToolBox also considers safe use options ofcontaminated batches, such as the efficient production of biofuels. Compared to previous efforts of mycotoxin reduction strategies, the distinguishing feature of MyToolBox is to provide the recommended measures to theend users along the food and feed chain in a web-based MyToolBox platform (e-toolbox). The project focuseson small grain cereals, maize, peanuts and dried figs, applicable to agricultural conditions in the EU and China. Crop losses using existing practices are being compared with crop losses after novel pre-harvest interventionsincluding investigation of genetic resistance to fungal infection, cultural control (e.g. minimum tillage or cropdebris treatment), the use of novel biopesticides suitable for organic farming, competitive biocontrol treatment and development of novel modelling approaches to predict mycotoxin contamination. Research into post-harvestmeasures includes real-time monitoring during storage, innovative sorting of crops using vision-technology, novelmilling technology and studying the effects of baking on mycotoxins at an industrial scale

M3.5 ‐ Organic plant breeding in a systems‐based approach and integration of organic plant breeding in value chain partnerships

Developing organic breeding is a key challenge for the organic sector. It is necessary to better adapt varieties to the specific needs of the organic sector (disease resistance, taste, weed suppressing ability, etc). It is also important to enable the organic sector to face the requirements of the New Organic Regulation (EU 2018/848). From 2036, exemptions to the use non‐organic seeds will not be granted any more (Article 53, Regulation 2018/848). The active participation of breeders, farmers, processors, retailers and traders is crucial to develop organic breeding. They all play a critical role and share the responsibility in upscaling organic plant breeding and ensuring future food security, food quality and climate robust agriculture as well as integrity of the value chain. Even consumers could take part in supporting organic plant breeding with informed purchases. On the 12 of February 2019, IFOAM EU, the Louis Bolk Institute (Netherlands) and FiBL Switzerland co‐organized a workshop ‘Organic plant breeding in a system‐based approach and integration of organic plant breeding in value chain partnership’ as part of the Horizon 2020 project LIVESEED. The workshop took place at the largest organic trade fair at Nürnberg Messe biofach to reach out to different actors of the organic sector. The main objective of this workshop was to gather interested stakeholders across the value chain to discuss the responsibilities and their potential concrete engagements in facilitating organic plant breeding. Organized as a world café workshop 1, the participants had the opportunity to discuss three main issues: - Why should different value chain actors support organic plant breeding? - The advantage of organic plant breeding for the value chain (farmer, processors, traders). - The advantage of organic plant breeding for consumers and society (local and global). This report describes in detail the main conclusion of the discussions held during this workshop

Towards an\u2028 EU research and innovation policy agenda for nature-based solutions & re-naturing cities. Final report of the Horizon 2020 expert group on nature-based solutions and re-naturing cities.

1. Nature-based solutions harness the power and sophistication of nature to turn environmental, social and economic challenges into innovation opportunities. They can address a variety of societal challenges in sustainable ways, with the potential to contribute to green growth, 'future-proofing' society, fostering citizen well-being, providing business opportunities and positioning Europe as a leader in world markets. \u2028 2. Nature-based solutions are actions which are inspired by, supported by or copied from nature. They have tremendous potential to be energy and resource-efficient and resilient to change, but to be successful they must be adapted to local conditions. \u2028 3. Many nature-based solutions result in multiple co-benefits for health, the economy, society and the environment, and thus they can represent more efficient and cost-effective solutions than more traditional approaches. \u2028 4. An EU Research & Innovation (R&I) agenda on nature-based solutions will enable Europe to become a world leader both in R&I and in the growing market for nature-based solutions. For this, the evidence base for the effectiveness of nature-based solutions needs to be developed and then used to implement solutions. Both need to be done in conjunction with stakeholders. The potential for transferability and upscaling of solutions also requires further investigation. There is also a need to develop a systemic approach that combines technical, business, finance, governance, regulatory and social innovation. \u2028 5. Four principal goals have been identified that can be addressed by nature-based solutions: �� Enhancing sustainable urbanisation through nature-based solutions can stimulate economic growth as well as improving the environment, making cities more attractive, and enhancing human well-being. \u2028 �� Restoring degraded ecosystems using nature-based solutions can improve the resilience of ecosystems, enabling them to deliver vital ecosystem services and also to meet other societal challenges. \u2028 �� Developing climate change adaptation and mitigation using nature-based solutions can provide more resilient responses and enhance the storage of carbon. \u2028 �� Improving risk management and resilience using nature-based solutions can lead to greater benefits than conventional methods and offer synergies in reducing multiple risks. \u2028 6. Based on the four goals, seven nature-based solutions for R&I actions are recommended to be taken forward by the European Commission and Member States: �� Urban regeneration through nature-based solutions \u2028 �� Nature-based solutions for improving well-being in urban areas \u2028 �� Establishing nature-based solutions for coastal resilience \u2028 �� Multi-functional nature-based watershed management and ecosystem restoration \u2028 �� Nature-based solutions for increasing the sustainability of the use of matter and energy \u2028 �� Nature-based solutions for enhancing the insurance value of ecosystems \u2028 �� Increasing carbon sequestration through nature-based solutions \u2028This report was produced by the Horizon 2020 Expert Group on 'Nature-Based Solutions and Re- Naturing Cities', informed by the findings of an e-consultation and a stakeholder workshop. \u202

Budget projections and clinical impact of an immuno-oncology class of treatments: Experience in four EU markets

Background Immunotherapies have revolutionized oncology, but their rapid expansion may potentially put healthcare budgets under strain. We developed an approach to reduce demand uncertainty and inform decision makers and payers of the potential health outcomes and budget impact of the anti-PD-1/PD-L1 class of immuno-oncology (IO) treatments. Methods We used partitioned survival modelling and budget impact analysis to estimate overall survival, progression-free survival, life years gained (LYG), and number of adverse events (AEs), comparing “worlds with and without” anti-PD-1/PD-L1s over five years. The cancer types initially included melanoma, first and second line non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), bladder, head and neck, renal cell carcinoma, and triple negative breast cancer [1]. Inputs were based on publicly available data, literature, and expert advice. Results The model [2] estimated budget and health impact of the anti-PD-1/PD-L1s and projected that between 2018−2022 the class [3] would have a manageable economic impact per year, compared to the current standard of care (SOC). The first country adaptations showed that for that period Belgium would save around 11,100 additional life years and avoid 6,100 AEs. Slovenia - 1,470 LYGs and 870 AEs avoided; Austria - respectively 4,200, 3,000; Italy – 19,800, 6,800. For Austria, the class had a projected share of about 4.5 % of the cancer care budget and 0.4 % of the total 2020 healthcare budget. For Belgium, Slovenia, and Italy - respectively 15.1 % and 1.1 %, 12.6 %, 0.6 %, and 6.5 %, 0.5 %. Conclusion The Health Impact Projection (HIP) is a horizon scanning model designed to estimate the potential budget and health impact of the PD-(L)1 inhibitor class at a country level for the next five years. It provides valuable data to payers which they can use to support their reimbursement plans

Health economic analyses of latent tuberculosis infection screening and preventive treatment among people living with HIV in lower tuberculosis incidence settings: a systematic review [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]

INTRODUCTION: In lower tuberculosis (TB) incidence countries (<100 cases/100,000/year), screening and preventive treatment (PT) for latent TB infection (LTBI) among people living with HIV (PLWH) is often recommended, yet guidelines advising which groups to prioritise for screening can be contradictory and implementation patchy. Evidence of LTBI screening cost-effectiveness may improve uptake and health outcomes at reasonable cost. METHODS: Our systematic review assessed cost-effectiveness estimates of LTBI screening/PT strategies among PLWH in lower TB incidence countries to identify model-driving inputs and methodological differences. Databases were searched 1980-2020. Studies including health economic evaluation of LTBI screening of PLWH in lower TB incidence countries (<100 cases/100,000/year) were included. Study quality was assessed using the CHEERS checklist. RESULTS: Of 2,644 articles screened, nine studies were included. Cost-effectiveness estimates of LTBI screening/PT for PLWH varied widely, with universal screening/PT found highly cost-effective by some studies, while only targeting to high-risk groups (such as those from mid/high TB incidence countries) deemed cost-effective by others. Cost-effectiveness of strategies screening all PLWH from studies published in the past five years varied from US$2828 to US$144,929/quality-adjusted life-year gained (2018 prices). Study quality varied, with inconsistent reporting of methods and results limiting comparability of studies. Cost-effectiveness varied markedly by screening guideline, with British HIV Association guidelines more cost-effective than NICE guidelines in the UK. DISCUSSION: Cost-effectiveness studies of LTBI screening/PT for PLWH in lower TB incidence settings are scarce, with large variations in methods and assumptions used, target populations and screening/PT strategies evaluated. The limited evidence suggests LTBI screening/PT may be cost-effective for some PLWH groups but further research is required, particularly on strategies targeting screening/PT to PLWH at higher risk. Standardisation of model descriptions and results reporting could facilitate reliable comparisons between studies, particularly to identify those factors driving the wide disparity between cost-effectiveness estimates. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42020166338 (18/03/2020)

How Can the EU Beating Cancer Plan Help in Tackling Lung Cancer, Colorectal Cancer, Breast Cancer and Melanoma?

Cancer is the second leading cause of mortality in EU countries, and the needs to tackle cancer are obvious. New scientific understanding, techniques and methodologies are opening up horizons for significant improvements in diagnosis and care. However, take-up is uneven, research needs and potential outstrip currently available resources, manifestly beneficial practices—such as population-level screening for lung cancer—are still not generalised, and the quality of life of patients and survivors is only beginning to be given attention it merits. This paper, mainly based on a series of multistakeholder expert workshops organised by the European Alliance for Personalised Medicine (EAPM), looks at some of those specifics in the interest of planning a way forward. Part of this exercise also involves taking account of the specific nature of Europe and its constituent countries, where the complexities of planning a way forward are redoubled by the wide variations in national and regional approaches to cancer, local epidemiology and the wide disparities in health systems. Despite all the differences between cancers and national and regional resources and approaches to cancer care, there is a common objective in pursuing broader and more equal access to the best available care for all European citizens

How Can the EU Beating Cancer Plan Help in Tackling Lung Cancer, Colorectal Cancer, Breast Cancer and Melanoma?

Cancer is the second leading cause of mortality in EU countries, and the needs to tackle cancer are obvious. New scientific understanding, techniques and methodologies are opening up horizons for significant improvements in diagnosis and care. However, take-up is uneven, research needs and potential outstrip currently available resources, manifestly beneficial practices—such as population-level screening for lung cancer—are still not generalised, and the quality of life of patients and survivors is only beginning to be given attention it merits. This paper, mainly based on a series of multistakeholder expert workshops organised by the European Alliance for Personalised Medicine (EAPM), looks at some of those specifics in the interest of planning a way forward. Part of this exercise also involves taking account of the specific nature of Europe and its constituent countries, where the complexities of planning a way forward are redoubled by the wide variations in national and regional approaches to cancer, local epidemiology and the wide disparities in health systems. Despite all the differences between cancers and national and regional resources and approaches to cancer care, there is a common objective in pursuing broader and more equal access to the best available care for all European citizens

A cryogenic liquid-mirror telescope on the moon to study the early universe

We have studied the feasibility and scientific potential of zenith observing liquid mirror telescopes having 20 to 100 m diameters located on the moon. They would carry out deep infrared surveys to study the distant universe and follow up discoveries made with the 6 m James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), with more detailed images and spectroscopic studies. They could detect objects 100 times fainter than JWST, observing the first, high-red shift stars in the early universe and their assembly into galaxies. We explored the scientific opportunities, key technologies and optimum location of such telescopes. We have demonstrated critical technologies. For example, the primary mirror would necessitate a high-reflectivity liquid that does not evaporate in the lunar vacuum and remains liquid at less than 100K: We have made a crucial demonstration by successfully coating an ionic liquid that has negligible vapor pressure. We also successfully experimented with a liquid mirror spinning on a superconducting bearing, as will be needed for the cryogenic, vacuum environment of the telescope. We have investigated issues related to lunar locations, concluding that locations within a few km of a pole are ideal for deep sky cover and long integration times. We have located ridges and crater rims within 0.5 degrees of the North Pole that are illuminated for at least some sun angles during lunar winter, providing power and temperature control. We also have identified potential problems, like lunar dust. Issues raised by our preliminary study demand additional in-depth analyses. These issues must be fully examined as part of a scientific debate we hope to start with the present article.Comment: 35 pages, 11 figures. To appear in Astrophysical Journal June 20 200

Health economic analyses of latent tuberculosis infection screening and preventive treatment among people living with HIV in lower tuberculosis incidence settings: a systematic review [version 2; peer review: 1 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

INTRODUCTION: In lower tuberculosis (TB) incidence countries (<100 cases/100,000/year), screening and preventive treatment (PT) for latent TB infection (LTBI) among people living with HIV (PLWH) is often recommended, yet guidelines advising which groups to prioritise for screening can be contradictory and implementation patchy. Evidence of LTBI screening cost-effectiveness may improve uptake and health outcomes at reasonable cost. METHODS: Our systematic review assessed cost-effectiveness estimates of LTBI screening/PT strategies among PLWH in lower TB incidence countries to identify model-driving inputs and methodological differences. Databases were searched 1980-2020. Studies including health economic evaluation of LTBI screening of PLWH in lower TB incidence countries (<100 cases/100,000/year) were included. RESULTS: Of 2,644 articles screened, nine studies were included. Cost-effectiveness estimates of LTBI screening/PT for PLWH varied widely, with universal screening/PT found highly cost-effective by some studies, while only targeting to high-risk groups (such as those from mid/high TB incidence countries) deemed cost-effective by others. Cost-effectiveness of strategies screening all PLWH from studies published in the past five years varied from US$2828 to US$144,929/quality-adjusted life-year gained (2018 prices). Study quality varied, with inconsistent reporting of methods and results limiting comparability of studies. Cost-effectiveness varied markedly by screening guideline, with British HIV Association guidelines more cost-effective than NICE guidelines in the UK. DISCUSSION: Cost-effectiveness studies of LTBI screening/PT for PLWH in lower TB incidence settings are scarce, with large variations in methods and assumptions used, target populations and screening/PT strategies evaluated. The limited evidence suggests LTBI screening/PT may be cost-effective for some PLWH groups but further research is required, particularly on strategies targeting screening/PT to PLWH at higher risk. Standardisation of model descriptions and results reporting could facilitate reliable comparisons between studies, particularly to identify those factors driving the wide disparity between cost-effectiveness estimates. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42020166338 (18/03/2020)