233,958 research outputs found

    A quantitative mirror on the Euribor market using implied probability density functions

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    This paper presents a set of probability density functions for Euribor outturns in three months’ time, estimated from the prices of options on Euribor futures. It is the first official and freely available dataset to span the complete history of Euribor futures options, thus comprising over ten years of daily data, from 13 January 1999 onwards. Time series of the statistical moments of these option-implied probability density functions are documented until April 2010. Particular attention is given to how these probability density functions, and their associated summary statistics, reacted to the unfolding financial crisis between 2007 and 2009. In doing so, it shows how option-implied probability density functions could be used to contribute to monetary policy and financial stability analysis. JEL Classification: C13, C14, G12, G13financial, financial market, options, probability density functions

    Ten years onwards: Comparison of the South Eastern European regional public health strategy 2004 and the South Eastern European 2020 strategy

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    Aim: Regional collaboration has continuously contributed to the development of public health in the South Eastern Europe (SEE) region since 2000 when the Public Health Collaboration in SEE (PH-SEE) was initiated. This article looks into two frameworks for regional collaboration in the area of public health: a framework developed in 2004 by a network of public health professionals and academics, and another one developed by the SEE Health Network as integral part of the SEE 2020 strategy on Jobs and Prosperity in a European Perspective, adopted in 2013. It compares the commonalities and differences of the two frameworks; considers what is still valid and relevant after ten years and which new features have emerged in the new strategy. Methods: A literature review was carried out and a qualitative analysis was applied for the comparison of the two frameworks. Results: Notwithstanding the time gap of nearly ten years, the commonalities between the two regional health strategies are significant. Major consistent goals include: improving equity in health; strengthening human resources for health; improving intersectoral cooperation and governance. The differences between the two regional strategies, including issues around social participation and regional health information systems, are partially due to their different development context. Cross-border policies and quality management have emerged as new or more pronounced topics in the SEE 2020 strategy’s health dimension. Conclusions: Many aspects addressed in the 2004 framework are pertinent with regard to the SEE 2020 health dimension and remain relevant in the current context. The integration of health as part of the economic SEE 2020 strategy reflects a significant paradigm shift and important step forward for public healt

    Harbingers of dissolution? Grain prices, borders and nationalism in the Habsburg economy before the First World War

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    This paper explores the pre-First World War Austro-Hungarian economy as a prominent case where growing conflict between various ethnic and national groups within an empire might have contributed to the emergence of internal borders and even its eventual dissolution. To this end we adopt an Engel-and-Rogerstype approach to examine on an annual basis the extent of co-movements in grain prices across a sample of ten regional capital cities in the empire and over the period 1877-1910. There are two key findings. First, the political borders that emerged from 1918 onwards became visible in the price dynamics of grain markets already 20 years before the Great War. Second, this effect of a border before a border can be explained by the extent of language heterogeneity across the various parts of the Habsburg Empire. These results raise several important questions about both the forces that shaped pre-war market integration as well as the economic costs of breaking up the Habsburg customs union after 1918. --Border Effects,Grain Prices,Habsburg Empire,Market Integration,Nationalism,Pre-1914 Europe

    The spatial and temporal heterogeneity of macrophyte communities in thirty small, temporary ponds over a period of ten years

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    Ponds are important habitats within many landscapes because of the diversity of wildlife they support. This arises in part because of the heterogeneity of ecological communities found in neighbouring ponds but this variation has proved difficult to explain. Chance and unrecorded historic events have often been emphasised as explanations. This study describes the development of spatial heterogeneity and the role of historic events in the development of pond plant macrophyte communities from the ponds' creation until ten later using thirty small, adjacent temporary ponds in Northumberland. Plant communities showed significant spatial variation from the first year onwards. Metacommunity spatial patterns changed over time but even after ten years several distinct macrophyte communities persisted in different ponds. The outcome was that a greater variety of pond communities persisted than was likely if a single, larger pond had been created on the site. The spatial patterns of the plants communities were compared to spatial variation of summer dry-phase and winter inundation. Macrophyte heterogeneity appeared to result from deterministic change which would have been difficult to detect in a snap-shot survey not knowing the history of the ponds. Winter inundation showed significant spatial trends every year which mirrored the changing distribution of macrophyte communities between ponds. The proximate influence of the inundation is ultimately determined by the position of each pond in the landscape so that the marked spatial and temporal heterogeneity of plant communities was strongly influenced by small scale variation in hydrology. The results suggest that the heterogeneity of pondlife across a landscape may be deterministic when recorded over a longer time period and not due to chance, but that the determining environmental factors are highly contingent on the locality of the pond

    A study on when to conclude a long term fertilizer trial on coconut yield

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    Yield data obtained for twenty consecutive from a fertilizer trial carried out at the coconut research institute in Sri Lanka on a mature coconut plantation was subjected to an analysis with a view to ascertatining the relative influence of repeated application of fertilizer on coconut yield. The inter-annual correlation coefficients between successive pairs of years showed that the correlations first increased, then reached a plateau, then increased again and finally ended up in an asymptote. From the eighth year onwards the inter-annual correlation between succeeding pair of years remained stati0onary. The average correlation was 0.9351. On the basis of these results, an eight to ten year period is considered sufficient to under stand the full response to fertilizer in an experiment. After this period, it appears no useful purpose would be achieved

    Now we are 21: an overview of the longitudinal Life Chances Study

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    The Brotherhood of St Laurence’s longitudinal Life Chances Study started in Melbourne in 1990. The study has comprised ten stages, the most recent completed in 2012 when the children, who were born in 1990, were 21 years old.This paper presents an overview of the study by outlining the published findings of each stage. It is designed to enable readers to follow up the diverse topics covered over 21 years, to point to the findings and the policy implications that have emerged and to act as a guide for possible future analysis.The study was designed as a population study in an inner urban area. It sought to explore the life chances of a group of children who were born at the same time in the same place but into very diverse families. While the study sample is not representative of all Australian children, aspects of the experiences of these families are likely to be shared by many others. The study has continued to follow the families as they moved away from the inner suburbs.Readers can also turn to the original reports for their rich detail including the parents’ and young people’s own descriptions of their experiences as well as quantitative analysis. The reports of the early stages are available through the Brotherhood of St Laurence and some libraries. The reports of stages 6 onwards are available on the Brotherhood’s website (www.bsl.org.au)

    The influence of socioeconomic deprivation on multimorbidity at different ages: a cross-sectional study

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    <b>Background</b> Multimorbidity occurs at a younger age in individuals in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation but little is known about the 'typology' of multimorbidity in different age groups and its association with socioeconomic status.<p></p> <b>Aim</b> To characterise multimorbidity type and most common conditions in a large nationally representative primary care dataset in terms of age and deprivation.<p></p> <b>Design and setting</b> Cross-sectional analysis of 1 272 685 adults in Scotland.<p></p> <b>Method</b> Multimorbidity type of participants (physical-only, mental-only, mixed physical, and mental) and most common conditions were analysed according to age and deprivation.<p></p> <b>Results</b> Multimorbidity increased with age, ranging from 8.1% in those aged 25–34 to 76.1% for those aged ≥75 years. Physical-only (56% of all multimorbidity) was the most common type of multimorbidity in those aged ≥55 years, and did not vary substantially with deprivation. Mental-only was uncommon (4% of all multimorbidity), whereas mixed physical and mental (40% of all multimorbidity) was the most common type of multimorbidity in those aged <55 years and was two- to threefold more common in the most deprived compared with the least deprived in most age groups. Ten conditions (seven physical and three mental) accounted for the top five most common conditions in people with multimorbidity in all age groups. Depression and pain featured in the top five conditions across all age groups. Deprivation was associated with a higher prevalence of depression, drugs misuse, anxiety, dyspepsia, pain, coronary heart disease, and diabetes in multimorbid patients at different ages.<p></p> <b>Conclusion</b> Mixed physical and mental multimorbidity is common across the life-span and is exacerbated by deprivation from early adulthood onwards

    Further education: 24+ advanced learning loans

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    Grandmaternal effects in preindustrial Lapland

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    The grandmother hypothesis proposes that the prolonged post-reproductive lifespan of women has evolved because grandmothers have been able to increase their own inclusive fitness by promoting the lifetime reproductive success of their adult children. Although several studies have provided support for the grandmother hypothesis, there is a lack of studies concerning the association be-tween the female post-reproductive longevity and the number of adult grandchildren, that is, the association between a woman’s post-reproductive lifespan and the lifetime reproductive success of her adult children. Here, I used multigenerational demographic data collected from preindustrial Lapland to investigate 1. whether the lifespan of post-reproductive women was associated with the number of adult grandchildren, 2. whether having a living grandmother affected the survival of her grandchildren, and 3. whether the geographical proximity of the grandmother affected the survival of the grandchildren. I found that the lifespan of post-reproductive women was associated with the number of adult grandchildren: the women gained ten percent more adult grandchildren for every ten years of their post-reproductive lifespan. Moreover, having a living maternal grandmother de-creased the grandchildren’s mortality risk from the age of three onwards, and having a living pater-nal grandmother decreased the grandchildren’s mortality risk from the age of four onwards. The geographical proximity of the maternal grandmother was not associated with the mortality risk of the grandchildren. Altogether, these results provide support for the hypothesis that the prolonged post-reproductive lifespan of women has evolved because grandmothers have promoted the lifetime reproductive success of their adult children and simultaneously their own inclusive fitness
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