Decisional Processes with Boolean Neural Network: the Emergence of Mental Schemes

Human decisional processes result from the employment of selected quantities of relevant information, generally synthesized from environmental incoming data and stored memories. Their main goal is the production of an appropriate and adaptive response to a cognitive or behavioral task. Different strategies of response production can be adopted, among which haphazard trials, formation of mental schemes and heuristics. In this paper, we propose a model of Boolean neural network that incorporates these strategies by recurring to global optimization strategies during the learning session. The model characterizes as well the passage from an unstructured/chaotic attractor neural network typical of data-driven processes to a faster one, forward-only and representative of schema-driven processes. Moreover, a simplified version of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is introduced in order to test the model. Our results match with experimental data and point out some relevant knowledge coming from psychological domain.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figure

Enhanced air traffic flow and capacity management under trajectory based operations considering traffic complexity

Tesi amb menció internacional.(English) The Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management (ATFCM) aims at maintaining the forecast traffic demand below the estimated capacity in airports and airspace sectors. The purpose is to maintain the workload of the air traffic controllers under safe limits and avoid overloaded situations. At present, the demand and the capacity management initiatives are deployed separately. Given a forecast traffic demand, the different air navigation service providers allocate their air traffic control resources providing the airspace sectorisations. Then, the network manager addresses the remaining overloads by allocating delay using the CASA algorithm based on a ration-by-schedule principle. It should be noted that some ad-hoc flights might be re-rerouted or limited in cruise altitude in order to avoid congested airspace by submitting a new flight plan. Hence, the previously chosen sectorisations may be not optimum once the demand management initiatives are deployed. Moreover, the flexibility of the airspace users is limited since they cannot express their preferences. Furthermore, the demand and the capacity are currently measured using entry counts as proxy of the air traffic control workload, which is rather easy to measure or estimate. Yet, this metric cannot evaluate the difficulty to handle different traffic patterns inside the sectors leading to the use of capacity buffers. This PhD focuses on overcoming the limitations of the current ATFCM system outlined before by the introduction of complexity metrics (instead of entry counts) in order to measure the traffic load, the better consideration of the airspace users preferences allowing the possibility of submitting alternative trajectories to avoid congested airspace, and the holistic integration of the demand and capacity management into the same optimisation problem. First, the integration of two capacity management initiatives, i.e. Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) and Flight Centric ATC (FCA), is studied proving some benefits when such integration is dynamic. Next, a new concept of operation is proposed where the airspace users have the option of submitting alternative trajectories and the network manager is the responsible for the demand management (delay allocation and choice of the used trajectory) and the capacity management (selection of the airspace sectorisation), considering a network-wide optimisation. This concept of operations is mathematically modelled with two Demand and Capacity Balancing (DCB) models addressing only demand management and three holistic DCB models where the demand and the capacity management measures are considered together in the same optimisation problem. A first model aims at choosing the best trajectory and delay allocation per flight while analysing the traffic load with entry counts at traffic volume level. It is solved in a realistic case study using the historical regulations providing a 76.84% of reduction in the arrival delay if compared to the current system.(Català) La gestió dels fluxos de trànsit i de la capacitat (ATFCM) té com a objectiu mantenir la demanda de trànsit prevista per sota de la capacitat estimada dels aeroports i els sectors de l’espai aeri. Actualment, les iniciatives de gestió de la demanda i de gestió de la capacitat es duen a terme separadament. Donada una previsió de trànsit, els diferents proveïdors de serveis de navegació aèria assignen els seus recursos proporcionant les sectoritzacions de l’espai aeri. Després l’administrador de la xarxa tracta les sobrecàrregues restants mitjançant l’assignació de retards utilitzant l'algoritme CASA, basat en l'ordenació per ordre d’arribada. A alguns vols també se’ls pot canviar la ruta o se’ls pot restringit l’altitud del creuer per tal d’evitar zones congestionades requerint la presentació d’un nou pla de vol. Així doncs, les sectoritzacions prèviament escollides poden ser no òptimes una vegada s’implementin les iniciatives de gestió de la demanda. A més, la flexibilitat dels usuaris de l’espai aeri és limitada ja que no poden expressar les seves preferències. Altrament, la demanda i la capacitat es mesuren actualment comptant el nombre d’arribades com a proxy de la càrrega de treball del control del trànsit aeri. No obstant això, aquesta mètrica no pot evaluar la dificultat de gestionar diferents patrons de trànsit dins els sectors, la qual cosa condueix a la utilització de marges de capacitat. Aquest PhD es centra en superar les limitacions de l’actual sistema d’ATFCM indicades anteriorment mitjançant la introducció de mètrics de complexitat (en lloc del número d’arribades) per a mesurar el trànsit, la millor consideració de les preferències dels usuaris de l’espai aeri permetent la possibilitat d’utilitzar trajectories alternatives per a evitar la congestió de l’espai aeri, i la integració holística de la gestió de la demanda i de la capacitat en el mateix problema d’optimització. Primer, s’estudia la integració de dues iniciatives de gestió de la capacitat: DAC i FCA. S’obtenen beneficis quan la integració és dinàmica. Després, es proposa un nou concepte operacional on els usuaris de l’espai aeri tenen l'opció de proposar trajectories alternatives i l’administrador de la xarxa és el responsable de la gestió de la demanda (assignació de retards i elecció de la trajectòria utilitzada) i de la capacitat (selecció de la sectorització de l’espai aeri) considerant l’optimització de tota la xarxa. Aquest concepte operacional es formula amb dos models de DCB que aborden només la gestió de la demanda i tres models holístics on la gestió de la demanda i de la capacitat es consideren conjuntament en el mateix problema d’optimització. Un primer model es centra en escollir la millor trajectòria i assignació de retard per vol, mentre que el trànsit s'avalua mitjançant el número d’arribades als volums de trànsit. Es resol un cas d’estudi realista on s’utilitzen les regulacions històriques aconseguint un 76.84% menys de retard a l'arribada si es compara amb els sistema actual. Un dels tres models holístics de s’estudia en detall, en concret el que utilitza mètriques de complexitat i optimitza les sectoritzacions de l’espai aeri escollint entre un seguit de configuracions disponibles. Aquest model es tracta amb un nou mètode híbrid presentat en aquest PhD i que combina la simulació del recuit i la programació dinàmica. En un primer cas d'estudi, aquest nou mètode es compara amb el mètode exacte resolt amb Gurobi proporcionant un millor rendiment principalment quan la dificultat del problema augmenta. En un segon cas d’estudi es realitza un estudi de sensibilitat del paràmetre que modela una penalització per a diferents configuracions consecutives. Finalment, es resol un escenari a gran escala amb el mètode híbrid proporcionant un 74.01% menys de retard a l'arribada i un 28.47% menys en el cost de la sectorització resultant en comparació amb un escenari de referència que representa les millors condicions del sistema actual.(Español) La gestión de los flujos de tráfico y de la capacidad (ATFCM) pretende mantener la demanda de tráfico prevista por debajo de la capacidad estimada de los aeropuertos y los sectores del espacio aéreo. Actualmente, las iniciativas de gestión de la demanda y de la capacidad se implementan por separado. Ante una previsión de tráfico, los diferentes proveedores de servicios de navegación aérea asignan sus recursos proporcionando las sectorizaciones del espacio aéreo. Después, el administrador de la red trata las sobrecargas restantes mediante la asignación de retrasos utilizando el algoritmo CASA basado en un principio de ordenación por orden de llegada. A algunos vuelos también se les puede cambiar de ruta o limitar la altitud de crucero para evitar la congestión del espacio aéreo requiriendo de un nuevo plan de vuelo. Así pues, las sectorizaciones elegidas anteriormente pueden no ser óptimas una vez que se implementen las iniciativas de gestión de la demanda. Adicionalmente, la flexibilidad de los usuarios del espacio aéreo es limitada ya que no pueden expresar sus preferencias. Además, la demanda y la capacidad se miden actualmente contando el número de llegadas como proxy de la carga de trabajo del control del tráfico aéreo. Sin embargo, esta métrica no puede evaluar la dificultad de controlar diferentes patrones de tráfico dentro de los sectores lo que conduce al uso de márgenes de capacidad. Este PhD se centra en superar las limitaciones del sistema de ATFCM actual descritas anteriormente mediante la introducción de métricas de complejidad (en lugar del número de llegadas) para medir la carga de tráfico, la mejor consideración de las preferencias de los usuarios del espacio aéreo permitiendo la posibilidad de la presentación de trayectorias alternativas para evitar la congestión, y la integración holística de la gestión de la demanda y de la capacidad en un mismo problema de optimización. Primero, se estudia la integración de dos iniciativas de gestión de la capacidad, DAC y FCA, demostrando beneficios cuando dicha integración es dinámica. A continuación, se propone un nuevo concepto operacional donde los usuarios del espacio aéreo tienen la opción de presentar trayectorias alternativas y el administrador de la red es el responsable de la gestión de la demanda (asignación de retrasos y elección de la trayectoria utilizada) y la gestión de la capacidad (selección de la sectorización), considerando una optimización de toda la red. Este concepto operacional se modela con dos modelos de DCB que abordan sólo la gestión de la demanda y tres modelos holísticos donde las medidas de gestión de la demanda y de la capacidad se consideran conjuntamente en el mismo problema de optimización. Un primer modelo pretende elegir la mejor asignación de trayectoria y retraso por vuelo mientras se analiza la carga de tráfico con el número de llegadas a nivel de volumen de tráfico. Se resuelve un caso de estudio utilizando las regulaciones históricas proporcionando un 76.84% de reducción en el retraso en la llegada si se compara con el sistema actual. El model holístico que utiliza métricas de complejidad y optimiza las sectorizaciones del espacio aéreo escogiendo entre un conjunto de configuraciones disponibles se estudia en detalle. Este modelo se trata con un nuevo método híbrido basado en el recocido simulado y la programación dinámica. En un primer caso de estudio, se compara este nuevo método con el método exacto resuelto con Gurobi proporcionando un mejor rendimiento cuando aumenta la dificultad del problema. En un segundo caso de estudio se realiza un estudio de sensibilidad del parámetro que modela una penalización para diferentes configuraciones consecutivas. Finalmente, se resuelve un escenario a gran escala con el método Híbrido proporcionando menores valores de retraso en llegada y menores costes en la sectorización resultante en comparación con un escenario de referencia que representa las mejores condiciones del sistema actual.Postprint (published version

A participatory design for the visualization of airspace configuration forecasts

International audienceCurrently, airspace-related activities in Air Traffic Control Centers (ATCC) are dispatched between the Flow Management Position (FMP) operators and the control room manager, and take place in two different time frames. The first activity (FMP) is the planning, 2 days ahead, of airspace usage and anticipated overloads, using coarse-grain and relatively inaccurate workload prediction metrics. The second activity (control room manager) is the day-to-day operation, where workload is re-assessed in real-time and where airspace may be re-configured according to the actual traffic of the day. In previous works, a workload model relying on relevant air traffic complexity metrics was proposed, using a neural network trained on past sector operations. This workload prediction model was combined with tree search algorithms, in order to compute optimal partitions of the airspace in Air Traffic Control (ATC) sectors. This method provides more accurate airspace configuration forecasts than today, thus improving the overall predictability of the Air Traffic Management (ATM)/ATC system. When relying on accurate 4D-trajectory predictions, as expected in the SESAR program, it could contribute towards bridging the current gap between the pre-tactical airspace/flow management and real-time operations. In this paper, we detail the participatory design approach that we used to develop a research prototype displaying the algorithm's results. As there is no such forecasting tool today, the main issue was to create a user interface in the absence of an existing user

NOSTROMO - D5.1 - ATM Performance Metamodels - Preliminary Release

This deliverable presents the results obtained with the meta-modelling process presented in D3.1 and D3.2 applied to the two micromodels (or simulators), Mercury and FLITAN, themselves implementing concepts from four SESAR solutions, PJ01.01, PJ07.02, PJ08-01, and PJ02.08. The objective of the meta-modelling process is explained briefly again in the introduction, in particular with respect to performance assessment. The rationale for the selection of the SESAR solutions implemented in the simulators are briefly explained too. The simulators are presented in two distinct chapters. First, a general presentation of each simulator is given, with past challenges and development, before explaining the development steps carried out to implement the concepts from the chosen solutions. Domain research questions that could be answered by these implementations are highlighted along the way. The meta-modelling process is then briefly explained again, followed by the results obtained with the two simulators, in distinct sections. The results highlight the performance of the meta-model with respect to approximating the output of the micromodels, but not the performance of the models themselves with respect to the research questions, which will be explored in WP7 instead. The deliverable closes with some considerations on the meta-modelling performance and next steps for this line of work

Application of advanced on-board processing concepts to future satellite communications systems: Bibliography

Abstracts are presented of a literature survey of reports concerning the application of signal processing concepts. Approximately 300 references are included

Coordinated capacity and demand management in a redesigned air traffic management value-chain

We present a re-designed European Air Traffic Management value-chain, with a new role for the Network Manager, which coordinates capacity and demand management decisions, using economic instruments for both areas. A conceptual and mathematical model supports decision-making in that process, focusing on capacity management decisions taken at the strategic level. Total costs are minimized by jointly managing sector-opening schemes and trajectory assignments. A large-scale case study demonstrates clear trade-offs between the volume of capacity ordered and the scope of necessary demand management actions. In addition, the comparison against a baseline, which resembles the current system, shows that with the proposed concept less capacity is needed to serve the same demand, resulting in lower total cost for Aircraft Operators

On Fault Detection and Exclusion in Snapshot and Recursive Positioning Algorithms for Maritime Applications

Resilient provision of Position, Navigation and Timing (PNT) data can be considered as a key element of the e-Navigation strategy developed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). An indication of reliability has been identified as a high level user need with respect to PNT data to be supplied by electronic navigation means. The paper concentrates on the Fault Detection and Exclusion (FDE) component of the Integrity Monitoring (IM) for navigation systems based both on pure GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) as well as on hybrid GNSS/inertial measurements. Here a PNT-data processing Unit will be responsible for both the integration of data provided by all available on-board sensors as well as for the IM functionality. The IM mechanism can be seen as an instantaneous decision criterion for using or not using the system and, therefore, constitutes a key component within a process of provision of reliable navigational data in future navigation systems. The performance of the FDE functionality is demonstrated for a pure GNSS-based snapshot weighted iterative least-square (WLS) solution, a GNSS-based Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) as well as for a classical error-state tightly-coupled EKF for the hybrid GNSS/inertial system. Pure GNSS approaches are evaluated by combining true measurement data collected in port operation scenario with artificially induced measurement faults, while for the hybrid navigation system the measurement data in an open sea scenario with native GNSS measurement faults have been employed. The work confirms the general superiority of the recursive Bayesian scheme with FDE over the snapshot algorithms in terms of fault detection performance even for the case of GNSS-only navigation. Finally, the work demonstrates a clear improvement of the FDE schemes over non-FDE approaches when the FDE functionality is implemented within a hybrid integrated navigation system

Configuring Airspace Sectors with Approximate Dynamic Programming

In response to changing traffic and staffing conditions, supervisors dynamically configure airspace sectors by assigning them to control positions. A finite horizon airspace sector configuration problem models this supervisor decision. The problem is to select an airspace configuration at each time step while considering a workload cost, a reconfiguration cost, and a constraint on the number of control positions at each time step. Three algorithms for this problem are proposed and evaluated: a myopic heuristic, an exact dynamic programming algorithm, and a rollouts approximate dynamic programming algorithm. On problem instances from current operations with only dozens of possible configurations, an exact dynamic programming solution gives the optimal cost value. The rollouts algorithm achieves costs within 2% of optimal for these instances, on average. For larger problem instances that are representative of future operations and have thousands of possible configurations, excessive computation time prohibits the use of exact dynamic programming. On such problem instances, the rollouts algorithm reduces the cost achieved by the heuristic by more than 15% on average with an acceptable computation time