Spatial and Prediction Models for Addressing Challenges in Pediatric Tuberculosis Control and Care

Tuberculosis (TB) is among the leading causes of global mortality among children \u3c5 years. Each year, over 1 million TB cases occur among children \u3c15 years worldwide, and nearly one quarter of those children die; approximately 80% of those deaths occur among children \u3c5 years. Alleviating the burden of pediatric TB and mortality requires 1) enhanced efforts to prevent transmission to children and 2) treating more children for TB. Targeting resources to children with a known TB exposure has been a cornerstone of the public health response to prevent transmission and detect cases early. Infectious adults must be diagnosed and treated earlier to prevent transmission to their child contacts. Modeling studies suggest that targeting community-level active case-finding to areas with high local transmission intensity may demonstrate population-level reductions in TB incidence. However, obtaining conclusive evidence of concentrated transmission requires access to spatial and genomic data, which is often only available under research conditions in high TB-incidence settings. In chapter 1, I use Bayesian spatial modeling methods to probe routinely collected, age-disaggregated TB notification data to demonstrate that overrepresentation of young child cases co-locate with areas of high local transmission intensity, identified by molecular evidence of transmission from a prospective cohort study in the same setting. This finding suggests that the use of models that leverage widely available notification data should be explored as tools to target case-finding and treatment efforts in high-transmission locations to maximize the direct and indirect benefits of active screening approaches. In chapter 2, I leverage data from a large prevalence survey to investigate a poorly understood form of TB that may frustrate symptom-based active case-finding efforts. Given that modeling estimates suggest that 96% of global childhood mortality due to TB occurs among children not receiving antituberculosis treatment, identifying and treating more cases of pediatric TB provide an opportunity to reduce child mortality. Diagnostic tools for pediatric pulmonary TB are limited by paucibacillary disease in children as well by resource constraints in many high TB-incidence settings. This contributes to poorer treatment outcomes through missed diagnoses and treatment delays. In chapter 3, I describe the analysis of a cohort of children being evaluated for TB from Cape Town, South Africa to demonstrate that a majority of antituberculosis treatment-decisions could be made using clinical evidence alone, without the need for additional diagnostic testing. In chapter 4, I describe the assembly of a large cohort of pediatric TB diagnostic evaluation data sourced from multiple geographically diverse, high TB-incidence settings to develop a prediction model for TB and investigate its validity and generalizability. As part of this work, I describe efforts in partnership with the World Health Organization to operationalize the prediction model as a treatment-decision algorithm to guide the evaluation of children with presumptive pulmonary TB

Trajectories of tuberculosis-specific interferon-gamma release assay responses among medical and nursing students in rural India

AbstractBackgroundInterferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) have been shown to be highly dynamic tests when used in serial testing for TB infection. However, there is little information demonstrating a clear association between TB exposure and IGRA responses over time, particularly in high TB incidence settings.ObjectivesTo assess whether QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) responses are associated with occupational TB exposures in a cohort of young health care trainees in India.MethodsAll medical and nursing students at Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Medical Sciences were approached. Participants were followed up for 18months; QFT was performed 4 times, once every 6months. Various modeling approaches were used to define IFN-gamma trajectories and correlations with TB exposure.ResultsAmong 270 medical and nursing trainees, high rates of conversions (6.3–20.9%) and reversions (20.0–26.2%) were found depending on the definitions used. Stable converters were more likely to have had TB exposure in hospital pre-study. Recent occupational exposures were not consistently associated with QFT responses over time.ConclusionIFN-gamma responses and rates of change could not be explained by occupational exposure investigated. High conversion and subsequent reversion rates suggest many health care workers (HCWs) would revert in the absence of treatment, either by clearing the infection naturally or due to fluctuations in the underlying immunological response and/or poor assay reproducibility. QFT may not be an ideal diagnostic test for repeated screening of HCWs in a high TB incidence setting

Overweight, Obesity, and Older Age Favor Latent Tuberculosis Infection among Household Contacts in Low Tuberculosis-Incidence Settings within Panama

Latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) remains the main source of new active tuberculosis (TB) cases worldwide. Household close contacts (HCCs) are at high risk of acquiring LTBI and subsequent development of TB. In this study, we aim to identify risk factors associated with LTBI in HCCs of TB patients living in a low TB-incidence setting. Our results revealed that HCCs who are aged more than 50 years (OR = 4.05) and overweight (OR = 15.3) are at higher risk of acquiring LTBI. None of these LTBI household contacts progressed to active TB. These findings suggest that HCCs who are young adults and children with normal and low body mass index are less likely to acquire LTBI after exposure to TB patients, even in low TB-incidence settings.Latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) remains the main source of new active tuberculosis (TB) cases worldwide. Household close contacts (HCCs) are at high risk of acquiring LTBI and subsequent development of TB. In this study, we aim to identify risk factors associated with LTBI in HCCs of TB patients living in a low TB-incidence setting. Our results revealed that HCCs who are aged more than 50 years (OR = 4.05) and overweight (OR = 15.3) are at higher risk of acquiring LTBI. None of these LTBI household contacts progressed to active TB. These findings suggest that HCCs who are young adults and children with normal and low body mass index are less likely to acquire LTBI after exposure to TB patients, even in low TB-incidence settings

Outlook for tuberculosis elimination in California: An individual-based stochastic model.

RationaleAs part of the End TB Strategy, the World Health Organization calls for low-tuberculosis (TB) incidence settings to achieve pre-elimination (<10 cases per million) and elimination (<1 case per million) by 2035 and 2050, respectively. These targets require testing and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI).ObjectivesTo estimate the ability and costs of testing and treatment for LTBI to reach pre-elimination and elimination targets in California.MethodsWe created an individual-based epidemic model of TB, calibrated to historical cases. We evaluated the effects of increased testing (QuantiFERON-TB Gold) and treatment (three months of isoniazid and rifapentine). We analyzed four test and treat targeting strategies: (1) individuals with medical risk factors (MRF), (2) non-USB, (3) both non-USB and MRF, and (4) all Californians. For each strategy, we estimated the effects of increasing test and treat by a factor of 2, 4, or 10 from the base case. We estimated the number of TB cases occurring and prevented, and net and incremental costs from 2017 to 2065 in 2015 U.S. dollars. Efficacy, costs, adverse events, and treatment dropout were estimated from published data. We estimated the cost per case averted and per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.Measurements and main resultsIn the base case, 106,000 TB cases are predicted to 2065. Pre-elimination was achieved by 2065 in three scenarios: a 10-fold increase in the non-USB and persons with MRF (by 2052), and 4- or 10-fold increase in all Californians (by 2058 and 2035, respectively). TB elimination was not achieved by any intervention scenario. The most aggressive strategy, 10-fold in all Californians, achieved a case rate of 8 (95% UI 4-16) per million by 2050. Of scenarios that reached pre-elimination, the incremental net cost was $20 billion (non-USB and MRF) to$48 billion. These had an incremental cost per QALY of $657,000 to$3.1 million. A more efficient but somewhat less effective single-lifetime test strategy reached as low as $80,000 per QALY.ConclusionsSubstantial gains can be made in TB control in coming years by scaling-up current testing and treatment in non-USB and those with medical risks

Comparison of LED and Conventional Fluorescence Microscopy for Detection of Acid Fast Bacilli in a Low-Incidence Setting

INTRODUCTION: Light emitting diode fluorescence microscopes have many practical advantages over conventional mercury vapour fluorescence microscopes, which would make them the preferred choice for laboratories in both low- and high-resource settings, provided performance is equivalent. METHODS: In a nested case-control study, we compared diagnostic accuracy and time required to read slides with the Zeiss PrimoStar iLED, LW Scientific Lumin, and a conventional fluorescence microscope (Leica DMLS). Mycobacterial culture was used as the reference standard, and subgroup analysis by specimen source and organism isolated were performed. RESULTS: There was no difference in sensitivity or specificity between the three microscopes, and agreement was high for all comparisons and subgroups. The Lumin and the conventional fluorescence microscope were equivalent with respect to time required to read smears, but the Zeiss iLED was significantly time saving compared to both. CONCLUSIONS: Light emitting diode microscopy should be considered by all tuberculosis diagnostic laboratories, including those in high income countries, as a replacement for conventional fluorescence microscopes. Our findings provide support to the recent World Health Organization policy recommending that conventional fluorescence microscopy be replaced by light emitting diode microscopy using auramine staining in all settings where fluorescence microscopy is currently used

Discriminatory ability of hypervariable variable number tandem repeat loci in population-based analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains, London, UK

To address conflicting results about the stability of variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) loci and their value in prospective molecular epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, we conducted a large prospective population-based analysis of all M. tuberculosis strains in a metropolitan setting. Optimal and reproducible conditions for reliable PCR and fragment analysis, comprising enzymes, denaturing conditions, and capillary temperature, were identified for a panel of hypervariable loci, including 3232, 2163a, 1982, and 4052. A total of 2,261 individual M. tuberculosis isolates and 265 sets of serial isolates were analyzed by using a standardized 15-loci VNTR panel, then an optimized hypervariable loci panel. The discriminative ability of loci varied substantially; locus VNTR 3232 varied the most, with 19 allelic variants and Hunter-Gaston index value of 0.909 . Hypervariable loci should be included in standardized panels because they can provide consistent comparable results at multiple settings, provided the proposed conditions are adhered to

Risk of Tuberculosis in Dialysis Patients: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Extent: 6p.BACKGROUND: The ability to identify individuals at increased risk of developing tuberculosis (TB) has important implications for public health policy and patient care. We conducted a general population historical cohort study in all Australian States and Territories to establish the risk of TB arising in people on chronic hemo- or peritoneal dialysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Cases of TB disease in patients receiving chronic dialysis were identified by record linkage using the Australia & New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry (ANZDATA) and State and Territory TB notification databases 2001 to 2006. Main outcome measure was the relative risk of TB in people on dialysis, adjusted for TB incidence in country of birth, sex, age and indigenous status. A total of 6,276 cases of active TB were reported among 19,855,283 people living in Australia between 2001 and 2006. Among 14,506 patients on dialysis, 37 had a notification for TB disease after commencing dialysis, of whom 28 were culture positive. The incidence of TB was 66.8/100,000/year (95% CI 47.7 to 93.2) among people on dialysis and 5.7/100,000/year (95% CI 5.5 to 5.8) in the general population. The adjusted relative risk (aRR) of TB in people on dialysis was 7.8 (95% CI 3.3 to 18.7), and the aRR of culture positive TB was 8.6 (95% CI 3.9 to 19.3). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Patients on dialysis are at increased risk of TB. The final decision to screen for, and to treat, LTBI in individual dialysis patients will be influenced by a cumulative assessment of the risk of reactivation of TB and by assessment of risk factors for adverse effects of treatment.Claudia C. Dobler, Stephen P. McDonald and Guy B. Mark

Screening for tuberculosis infection and effectiveness of preventive treatment among people with HIV in low-incidence settings

OBJECTIVE: To determine the yield of screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) among people with HIV (PWH) in low tuberculosis (TB) incidence countries (<10 TB cases per 100 000 persons). DESIGN: To determine the yield of screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) among people with HIV (PWH) in low tuberculosis (TB) incidence countries (<10 TB cases per 100 000 persons). METHODS: PubMed and Cochrane Library were searched for studies reporting primary data, excluding studies on active or paediatric TB. We extracted LTBI cases, odds ratios, and TB incidences; pooled estimates using a random-effects model; and used the Newcastle–Ottawa scale for bias. RESULTS: In 51 studies with 65 930 PWH, 12% [95% confidence interval (CI) 10–14] had a positive LTBI test, which was strongly associated with origin from a TB-endemic country [odds ratio (OR) 4.7] and exposure to TB (OR 2.9). Without TPT (10 629 PWH), TB incidence was 28/1000 person-years (PY; 95% CI 12–45) for LTBI-test positive versus 4/1000 PY (95% CI 0–7) for LTBI-test-negative individuals. Among 625 PWH (1644 PY) receiving TPT, 15 developed TB (6/1000 PY). An estimated 20 LTBI-positive individuals would need TPT to prevent one case of TB, and numbers NNS to detect LTBI or prevent active TB varied according to a-priori risk of LTBI. CONCLUSION: The relatively high prevalence of LTBI among PWH and the strong correlation with origin from a TB-endemic country support risk-stratified LTBI screening strategies for PWH in low-incidence countries and treating those who test positive

Health economic analyses of latent tuberculosis infection screening and preventive treatment among people living with HIV in lower tuberculosis incidence settings: a systematic review [version 2; peer review: 1 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

INTRODUCTION: In lower tuberculosis (TB) incidence countries (<100 cases/100,000/year), screening and preventive treatment (PT) for latent TB infection (LTBI) among people living with HIV (PLWH) is often recommended, yet guidelines advising which groups to prioritise for screening can be contradictory and implementation patchy. Evidence of LTBI screening cost-effectiveness may improve uptake and health outcomes at reasonable cost. METHODS: Our systematic review assessed cost-effectiveness estimates of LTBI screening/PT strategies among PLWH in lower TB incidence countries to identify model-driving inputs and methodological differences. Databases were searched 1980-2020. Studies including health economic evaluation of LTBI screening of PLWH in lower TB incidence countries (<100 cases/100,000/year) were included. RESULTS: Of 2,644 articles screened, nine studies were included. Cost-effectiveness estimates of LTBI screening/PT for PLWH varied widely, with universal screening/PT found highly cost-effective by some studies, while only targeting to high-risk groups (such as those from mid/high TB incidence countries) deemed cost-effective by others. Cost-effectiveness of strategies screening all PLWH from studies published in the past five years varied from US$2828 to US$144,929/quality-adjusted life-year gained (2018 prices). Study quality varied, with inconsistent reporting of methods and results limiting comparability of studies. Cost-effectiveness varied markedly by screening guideline, with British HIV Association guidelines more cost-effective than NICE guidelines in the UK. DISCUSSION: Cost-effectiveness studies of LTBI screening/PT for PLWH in lower TB incidence settings are scarce, with large variations in methods and assumptions used, target populations and screening/PT strategies evaluated. The limited evidence suggests LTBI screening/PT may be cost-effective for some PLWH groups but further research is required, particularly on strategies targeting screening/PT to PLWH at higher risk. Standardisation of model descriptions and results reporting could facilitate reliable comparisons between studies, particularly to identify those factors driving the wide disparity between cost-effectiveness estimates. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42020166338 (18/03/2020)

Bronchoalveolar Lavage Enzyme-Linked Immunospot for Diagnosis of Smear-Negative Tuberculosis in HIV-Infected Patients

Peripheral blood interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) have sub-optimal sensitivity and specificity for diagnosis of active pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). However, assessment of local immune responses has been reported to improve the accuracy of TB diagnosis.We enrolled HIV-infected adults with cough ≥2 weeks' duration admitted to Mulago Hospital in Kampala, Uganda and referred for bronchoscopy following two negative sputum acid-fast bacillus smears. We performed an ELISPOT-based IGRA (T-SPOT.TB®, Oxford Immunotec, Oxford, UK) using peripheral blood and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid mononuclear cells, and determined the accuracy of IGRAs using mycobacterial culture results as a reference standard.94 HIV-infected patients with paired peripheral blood and BAL IGRA results were included. The study population was young (median age 34 years [IQR 28-40 years]) and had advanced HIV/AIDS (median CD4+ T-lymphocyte count 60 cells/µl [IQR 22-200 cells/µl]). The proportion of indeterminate IGRA results was higher in BAL fluid than in peripheral blood specimens (34% vs. 14%, difference 20%, 95% CI 7-33%, p = 0.002). BAL IGRA had moderate sensitivity (73%, 95% CI 50-89%) but poor specificity (48%, 95% CI 32-64%) for TB diagnosis. Sensitivity was similar (75%, 95% CI 57-89%) and specificity was higher (78%, 95% CI 63-88%) when IGRA was performed on peripheral blood.BAL IGRA performed poorly for the diagnosis of smear-negative TB in a high HIV/TB burden setting. Further studies are needed to examine reasons for the large proportion of indeterminate results and low specificity of BAL IGRA for active TB in high HIV/TB burden settings