A Briefing on Metrics and Risks for Autonomous Decision-Making in Aerospace Applications

Significant technology advances will enable future aerospace systems to safely and reliably make decisions autonomously, or without human interaction. The decision-making may result in actions that enable an aircraft or spacecraft in an off-nominal state or with slightly degraded components to achieve mission performance and safety goals while reducing or avoiding damage to the aircraft or spacecraft. Some key technology enablers for autonomous decision-making include: a continuous state awareness through the maturation of the prognostics health management field, novel sensor development, and the considerable gains made in computation power and data processing bandwidth versus system size. Sophisticated algorithms and physics based models coupled with these technological advances allow reliable assessment of a system, subsystem, or components. Decisions that balance mission objectives and constraints with remaining useful life predictions can be made autonomously to maintain safety requirements, optimal performance, and ensure mission objectives. This autonomous approach to decision-making will come with new risks and benefits, some of which will be examined in this paper. To start, an account of previous work to categorize or quantify autonomy in aerospace systems will be presented. In addition, a survey of perceived risks in autonomous decision-making in the context of piloted aircraft and remotely piloted or completely autonomous unmanned autonomous systems (UAS) will be presented based on interviews that were conducted with individuals from industry, academia, and government

Applications of graphics to support a testbed for autonomous space vehicle operations

Researchers describe their experience using graphics tools and utilities while building an application, AUTOPS, that uses a graphical Machintosh (TM)-like interface for the input and display of data, and animation graphics to enhance the presentation of results of autonomous space vehicle operations simulations. AUTOPS is a test bed for evaluating decisions for intelligent control systems for autonomous vehicles. Decisions made by an intelligent control system, e.g., a revised mission plan, might be displayed to the user in textual format or he can witness the effects of those decisions via out of window graphics animations. Although a textual description conveys essentials, a graphics animation conveys the replanning results in a more convincing way. Similarily, iconic and menu-driven screen interfaces provide the user with more meaningful options and displays. Presented here are experiences with the SunView and TAE Plus graphics tools used for interface design, and the Johnson Space Center Interactive Graphics Laboratory animation graphics tools used for generating out out of the window graphics

Multiplatform phased mission reliability modelling for mission planning

Autonomous systems are being increasingly used in many areas. A significant example is unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), regularly being called upon to perform tasks in the military theatre. Autonomous systems can work alone or be called upon to work collaboratively towards common mission objectives. In this case it will be necessary to ensure that the decisions enable the progression of the platform objectives and also the overall mission objectives. The motivation behind the work presented in this paper is the need to be able to predict the failure probability of missions performed by a number of autonomous systems working together. Such mission prognoses can assist the mission planning process in autonomous systems when conditions change, with reconfiguration taking place if the probability of mission failure becomes unacceptably high. In a multiplatform phased mission a number of platforms perform their own phased mission that contributes to an overall mission objective. Presented in this paper is a methodology for calculating the phase failure probabilities of a multiplatform phased mission. These probabilities are then used to find the total mission failure probability. Prior to the mission the failure probabilities are used to decide if the original mission structure is acceptable. Once underway, failure probabilities, updated as circumstances change, are used to decide whether a mission should continue. Circumstances can change owing to failures on a platform, changing environmental conditions (weather), or the occurrence of unforeseen external events (emerging threats). This diagnostics information should be used to ensure that the updated failure probabilities calculated take into account the most up-to-date system information possible. Since the speed of decision making and the accuracy of the information used are essential, binary decision diagrams (BDDs) are utilized to form the basis of a fast, accurate quantification process

Combining Blockchain and Swarm Robotics to Deploy Surveillance Missions

Current swarm robotics systems are not utilized as frequently in surveillance missions due to the limitations of the existing distributed systems\u27 designs. The main limitation of swarm robotics is the absence of a framework for robots to be self-governing, secure, and scalable. As of today, a swarm of robots is not able to communicate and perform tasks in transparent and autonomous ways. Many believe blockchain is the imminent future of distributed autonomous systems. A blockchain is a system of computers that stores and distributes data among all participants. Every single participant is a validator and protector of the data in the blockchain system. The data cannot be modified since all participants are storing and watching the same records. In this thesis, we will focus on blockchain applications in swarm robotics using Ethereum smart contracts because blockchain can make a swarm globally connected and secure. A decentralized application (DApp) is used to deploy surveillance missions. After mission deployment, the swarm uses blockchain to communicate and make decisions on appropriate tasks within Ethereum private networks. We set a test swarm robotics system and evaluate the blockchain for its performance, scalability, recoverability, and responsiveness. We conclude that, although blockchain enables a swarm to be globally connected and secure, there are performance limitations that can become a critical issue

A reliability analysis method using binary decision diagrams in phased mission planning

The use of autonomous systems is becoming increasingly common in many fields. A significant example of this is the ambition to deploy UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) for both civil and military applications. In order for autonomous systems such as these to operate effectively they must be capable of making decisions regarding the appropriate future course of their mission responding to changes in circumstance in as short a time as possible. The systems will typically perform phased missions and, due to the uncertain nature of the environments in which the systems operate, the mission objectives may be subject to change at short notice. The ability to evaluate the different possible mission configurations is crucial in making the right decision about the mission tasks that should be performed in order to give the highest possible probability of mission success. Since Binary Decision Diagrams (BDD) may be quickly and accurately quantified to give measures of the system reliability it is anticipated that they are the most appropriate analysis tools to form the basis of a reliability-based prognostics methodology. This paper presents a new Binary Decision Diagram based approach for phased mission analysis, which seeks to take advantage of the proven fast analysis characteristics of the BDD and enhance it in ways which are suited to the demands of a decision making capability for autonomous systems. The BDD approach presented allows BDDs representing the failure causes in the different phases of a mission to be constructed quickly by treating component failures in different phases of the mission as separate variables. This allows flexibility when building mission phase failure BDDs since a global variable ordering scheme is not required. An alternative representation of component states in time intervals allows the dependencies to be efficiently dealt with during the quantification process. Nodes in the BDD can represent components with any number of failure modes or factors external to the system that could affect its behaviour, such as the weather. Path simplification rules and quantification rules are developed that allow the calculation of phase failure probabilities for this new BDD approach. The proposed method provides a phased mission analysis technique that allows the rapid construction of reliability models for phased missions and, with the use of BDDs, rapid quantification

Flexible Supervised Autonomy for Exploration in Subterranean Environments

While the capabilities of autonomous systems have been steadily improving in recent years, these systems still struggle to rapidly explore previously unknown environments without the aid of GPS-assisted navigation. The DARPA Subterranean (SubT) Challenge aimed to fast track the development of autonomous exploration systems by evaluating their performance in real-world underground search-and-rescue scenarios. Subterranean environments present a plethora of challenges for robotic systems, such as limited communications, complex topology, visually-degraded sensing, and harsh terrain. The presented solution enables long-term autonomy with minimal human supervision by combining a powerful and independent single-agent autonomy stack, with higher level mission management operating over a flexible mesh network. The autonomy suite deployed on quadruped and wheeled robots was fully independent, freeing the human supervision to loosely supervise the mission and make high-impact strategic decisions. We also discuss lessons learned from fielding our system at the SubT Final Event, relating to vehicle versatility, system adaptability, and re-configurable communications.Comment: Field Robotics special issue: DARPA Subterranean Challenge, Advancement and Lessons Learned from the Final

A reliability analysis method using binary decision diagrams in phased mission planning

The use of autonomous systems is becoming increasingly common in many fields. A significant example of this is the ambition to deploy unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for both civil and military applications. In order for autonomous systems such as these to operate effectively, they must be capable of making decisions regarding the appropriate future course of their mission responding to changes in circumstance in as short a time as possible. The systems will typically perform phased missions and, owing to the uncertain nature of the environments in which the systems operate, the mission objectives may be subject to change at short notice. The ability to evaluate the different possible mission configurations is crucial in making the right decision about the mission tasks that should be performed in order to give the highest possible probability of mission success. Because binary decision diagrams (BDDs) may be quickly and accurately quantified to give measures of the system reliability it is anticipated that they are the most appropriate analysis tools to form the basis of a reliability-based prognostics methodology. The current paper presents a new BDD-based approach for phased mission analysis, which seeks to take advantage of the proven fast analysis characteristics of the BDD and enhance it in ways that are suited to the demands of a decision-making capability for autonomous systems. The BDD approach presented allows BDDs representing the failure causes in the different phases of a mission to be constructed quickly by treating component failures in different phases of the mission as separate variables. This allows flexibility when building mission phase failure BDDs because a global variable ordering scheme is not required. An alternative representation of component states in time intervals allows the dependencies to be efficiently dealt with during the quantification process. Nodes in the BDD can represent components with any number of failure modes or factors external to the system that could affect its behaviour, such as the weather. Path simplification rules and quantification rules are developed that allow the calculation of phase failure probabilities for this new BDD approach. The proposed method provides a phased mission analysis technique that allows the rapid construction of reliability models for phased missions and, with the use of BDDs, rapid quantification

Automated Target Planning for FUSE Using the SOVA Algorithm

The SOVA algorithm was originally developed under the Resilient Systems and Operations Project of the Engineering for Complex Systems Program from NASA s Aerospace Technology Enterprise as a conceptual framework to support real-time autonomous system mission and contingency management. The algorithm and its software implementation were formulated for generic application to autonomous flight vehicle systems, and its efficacy was demonstrated by simulation within the problem domain of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle autonomous flight management. The approach itself is based upon the precept that autonomous decision making for a very complex system can be made tractable by distillation of the system state to a manageable set of strategic objectives (e.g. maintain power margin, maintain mission timeline, and et cetera), which if attended to, will result in a favorable outcome. From any given starting point, the attainability of the end-states resulting from a set of candidate decisions is assessed by propagating a system model forward in time while qualitatively mapping simulated states into margins on strategic objectives using fuzzy inference systems. The expected return value of each candidate decision is evaluated as the product of the assigned value of the end-state with the assessed attainability of the end-state. The candidate decision yielding the highest expected return value is selected for implementation; thus, the approach provides a software framework for intelligent autonomous risk management. The name adopted for the technique incorporates its essential elements: Strategic Objective Valuation and Attainability (SOVA). Maximum value of the approach is realized for systems where human intervention is unavailable in the timeframe within which critical control decisions must be made. The Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) satellite, launched in 1999, has been collecting science data for eight years.[1] At its beginning of life, FUSE had six gyros in two IRUs and four reaction wheels. Over time through various failures, the satellite has been left with one reaction wheel on the vehicle skew axis and two gyros. To remain operational, a control scheme has been implemented using the magnetic torque rods and the remaining momentum wheel.[2] As a consequence, there are attitude regions where there is insufficient torque authority to overcome environmental disturbances (e.g. gravity gradient torques). The situation is further complicated by the fact that these attitude regions shift inertially with time as the spacecraft moves through earth s magnetic field during the course of its orbit. Under these conditions, the burden of planning targets and target-to-target slew maneuvers has increased significantly since the beginning of the mission.[3] Individual targets must be selected so that the magnetic field remains roughly aligned with the skew wheel axis to provide enough control authority to the other two orthogonal axes. If the field moves too far away from the skew axis, the lack of control authority allows environmental torques to pull the satellite away from the target and can potentially cause it to tumble. Slew maneuver planning must factor the stability of targets at the beginning and end, and the torque authority at all points along the slew. Due to the time varying magnetic field geometry relative to any two inertial targets, small modifications in slew maneuver timing can make large differences in the achievability of a maneuver

Critical Questions for Space Human Factors

Traditional human factors contributions to NASA's crewed space programs have been rooted in the classic approaches to quantifying human physical and cognitive capabilities and limitations in the environment of interest, and producing recommendations and standards for the selection or design of mission equipment. Crews then evaluate the interfaces, displays, or equipment, and with the assistance of human factors experts, improvements are made as funds, time, control documentation, and weight allow. We have come a long way from the early spaceflight days, where men with the ' right stuff were the solution to operating whatever equipment was given to them. The large and diverse Shuttle astronaut corps has impacted mission designs to accommodate a wide range of human capabilities and preferences. Yet with existing long duration experience, we have seen the need to address a different set of dynamics when designing for optimal crew performance: critical equipment and mission situations degrade, and human function changes with mission environment, situation, and duration. Strategies for quantifying the critical nature of human factors requirements are being worked by NASA. Any exploration-class mission will place new responsibilities on mission designers to provide the crew with the information and resources to accomplish the mission. The current duties of a Mission Control Center to monitor system status, detect degradation or malfunction, and provide a proven solution, will need to be incorporated into on-board systems to allow the crew autonomous decision-making. The current option to resupply and replace mission systems and resources, including both vehicle equipment and human operators, will be removed, so considerations of maintenance, onboard training, and proficiency assessment are critical to providing a self-sufficient crew. As we 'move in' to the International Space Station, there are tremendous opportunities to investigate our ability to design for autonomous crews. Yet prioritizing the research that can and should be done by NASA will be based on the critical nature of the issues, and the impact of the individual research questions on mission design. The risks to crew health and safety associated with answering critical human factors issues must be properly included and communicated in order to support the Agency's decisions regarding future space programs

Instrumentation and Control Needs for Reliable Operation of Lunar Base Surface Nuclear Power Systems

As one of the near-term goals of the President's Vision for Space Exploration, establishment of a multi-person lunar base will require high-endurance power systems which are independent of the sun, and can operate without replenishment for several years. These requirements may be obtained using nuclear power systems specifically designed for use on the lunar surface. While it is envisioned that such a system will generally be supervised by humans, some of the evolutions required maybe semi or fully autonomous. The entire base complement for near-term missions may be less than 10 individuals, most or all of which may not be qualified nuclear plant operators and may be off-base for extended periods thus, the need for power system autonomous operation. Startup, shutdown, and load following operations will require the application of advanced control and health management strategies with an emphasis on robust, supervisory, coordinated control of, for example, the nuclear heat source, energy conversion plant (e.g., Brayton Energy Conversion units), and power management system. Autonomous operation implies that, in addition to being capable of automatic response to disturbance input or load changes, the system is also capable of assessing the status of the integrated plant, determining the risk associated with the possible actions, and making a decision as to the action that optimizes system performance while minimizing risk to the mission. Adapting the control to deviations from design conditions and degradation due to component failures will be essential to ensure base inhabitant safety and mission success. Intelligent decisions will have to be made to choose the right set of sensors to provide the data needed to do condition monitoring and fault detection and isolation because of liftoff weight and space limitations, it will not be possible to have an extensive set of instruments as used for earth-based systems. Advanced instrumentation and control technologies will be needed to enable this critical functionality of autonomous operation. It will be imperative to consider instrumentation and control requirements in parallel to system configuration development so as to identify control-related, as well as integrated system-related, problem areas early to avoid potentially expensive work-arounds . This paper presents an overview of the enabling technologies necessary for the development of reliable, autonomous lunar base nuclear power systems with an emphasis on system architectures and off-the-shelf algorithms rather than hardware. Autonomy needs are presented in the context of a hypothetical lunar base nuclear power system. The scenarios and applications presented are hypothetical in nature, based on information from open-literature sources, and only intended to provoke thought and provide motivation for the use of autonomous, intelligent control and diagnostics