SIMULATION-BASED OPTIMIZATION OF TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS: THEORY, SURROGATE MODELS, AND APPLICATIONS

The construction of new highway infrastructure has not kept pace with the growth of travel, mainly due to the limitation of land and funding availability. To improve the mobility, safety, reliability and sustainability of the transportation system, various transportation planning and traffic operations policies have been developed in the past few decades. On the other hand, simulation is widely used to evaluate the impacts of those policies, due to its advantages in capturing network and behavior details and capability of analyzing various combinations of policies. A simulation-based optimization (SBO) method, which combines the strength of simulation evaluation and mathematical optimization, is imperative for supporting decision making in practice. The objective of this dissertation is to develop SBO methods that can be efficiently applied to transportation planning and operations problems. Surrogate-based methods are selected as the research focus after reviewing various existing SBO methods. A systematic framework for applying the surrogate-based optimization methods in transportation research is then developed. The performance of different forms of surrogate models is compared through a numerical example, and regressing Kriging is identified as the best model in approximating the unknown response surface when no information regarding the simulation noise is available. Accompanied with an expected improvement global infill strategy, regressing Kriging is successfully applied in a real world application of optimizing the dynamic pricing for a toll road in the Inter-County Connector (ICC) regional network in the State of Maryland. To further explore its capability in dealing with problems that are of more interest to planners and operators of the transportation system, this method is then extended to solve constrained and multi-objective optimization problems. Due to the observation of heteroscedasticity in transportation simulation outputs, two surrogate models that can be adapted for heteroscedastic data are developed: a heteroscedastic support vector regression (SVR) model and a Bayesian stochastic Kriging model. These two models deal with the heteroscedasticity in simulation noise in different ways, and their superiority in approximating the response surface of simulations with heteroscedastic noise over regressing Kriging is verified through both numerical studies and real world applications. Furthermore, a distribution-based SVR model which takes into account the statistical distribution of simulation noise is developed. By utilizing the bootstrapping method, a global search scheme can be incorporated into this model. The value of taking into account the statistical distribution of simulation noise in improving the convergence rate for optimization is then verified through numerical examples and a real world application of integrated corridor traffic management. This research is one of the first to introduce simulation-based optimization methods into large-scale transportation network research. Various types of practical problems (with single-objective, with multi-objective or with complex constraints) can be resolved. Meanwhile, the developed optimization methods are general and can be applied to analyze all types of policies using any simulator. Methodological improvements to the surrogate models are made to take into account the statistical characteristics of simulation noise. These improvements are shown to enhance the prediction accuracy of the surrogate models, and further enhance the efficiency of optimization. Generally, compared to traditional surrogate models, fewer simulation evaluations would be needed to find the optimal solution when these improved models are applied

Surrogate-based Real-time Curbside Management for Ride-hailing and Delivery Operations

The present work investigates surrogate model-based optimization for real-time curbside traffic management operations. An optimization problem is formulated to minimize the congestion on roadway segments caused by vehicles stopping on the segment (e.g., ride-hailing or delivery operations) and implemented in a model predictive control framework. A hybrid simulation approach where main traffic flows interact with individually modeled stopping vehicles is adopted. Due to its non-linearity, the optimization problem is coupled with a meta-heuristic. However, because simulations are time expensive and hence unsuitable for real-time control, a trained surrogate model that takes the decision variables as inputs and approximates the objective function is employed to replace the simulation within the meta-heuristic algorithm. Several modeling techniques (i.e., linear regression, polynomial regression, neural network, radial basis network, regression tree ensemble, and Gaussian process regression) are compared based on their accuracy in reproducing solutions to the problem and computational tractability for real-time control under different configurations of simulation parameters. It is found that Gaussian process regression is the most suited for use as a surrogate model for the given problem. Finally, a realistic application with multiple ride-hailing vehicle operations is presented. The proposed approach for controlling the stop positions of vehicles is able to achieve an improvement of 20.65% over the uncontrolled case. The example shows the potential of the proposed approach in reducing the negative impacts of stopping vehicles and favorable computational properties

A Comparative Evaluation Of Fdsa,ga, And Sa Non-linear Programming Algorithms And Development Of System-optimal Methodology For Dynamic Pricing On I-95 Express

As urban population across the globe increases, the demand for adequate transportation grows. Several strategies have been suggested as a solution to the congestion which results from this high demand outpacing the existing supply of transportation facilities. High –Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes have become increasingly more popular as a feature on today’s highway system. The I-95 Express HOT lane in Miami Florida, which is currently being expanded from a single Phase (Phase I) into two Phases, is one such HOT facility. With the growing abundance of such facilities comes the need for indepth study of demand patterns and development of an appropriate pricing scheme which reduces congestion. This research develops a method for dynamic pricing on the I-95 HOT facility such as to minimize total travel time and reduce congestion. We apply non-linear programming (NLP) techniques and the finite difference stochastic approximation (FDSA), genetic algorithm (GA) and simulated annealing (SA) stochastic algorithms to formulate and solve the problem within a cell transmission framework. The solution produced is the optimal flow and optimal toll required to minimize total travel time and thus is the system-optimal solution. We perform a comparative evaluation of FDSA, GA and SA non-linear programming algorithms used to solve the NLP and the ANOVA results show that there are differences in the performance of the NLP algorithms in solving this problem and reducing travel time. We then conclude by demonstrating that econometric iv forecasting methods utilizing vector autoregressive (VAR) techniques can be applied to successfully forecast demand for Phase 2 of the 95 Express which is planned for 201