Establishment of China Information Technology Outsourcing Early Warning Index Based on SVR

AbstractInformation technology outsourcing in China has developed fast, it plays a more and more important role in economic development of China. Economic analysis and early warning system of information technology outsourcing, which reflect the status of ITO, can promote the healthy development of the industry. This paper constructed the indicator system by the method of time difference relevance and peak-valley. The weight vector of each indicator is attained by using support vector regression. It also calculated the comprehensive early warning index and established the early warning index system. At last, we used a group of signal lamps to reflect the status at every time. Based on the reality of ITO in China, this paper found that the development speed of ITO is slowing in recent months, the government should take out some positive measures

Peramalan Tren Penjualan pada Sistem Informasi Inventory Barang Diecast Menggunakan Support Vector Regression

Inventory management of diecast products is crucial for Sada Hobby store. The challenge in managing inventory lies in the importation of goods from overseas, which often lacks a definite delivery time, resulting in stock delays. An effective forecasting model is needed to address this challenge, such as Support Vector Regression (SVR), which can handle non-linear data using ε-sensitive approach. The SVR model predicts sales for each month in the next year, with accuracy measured using Mean Squared Error (MSE). The research results show that the SVR model estimates sales to be 8,423 units with an MSE accuracy of 0.0018. Sales predictions are also made for the Tomica brand (2,423 units, MSE 0.0019), Hotwheels brand (1,299 units, MSE 0.091), and Majorette brand (360 units, MSE 1.244). Although the MSE for these brands is higher than the overall sales prediction, the results are still good. The brand-based prediction process requires comparisons with all other brands, while the overall sales prediction sums up the sales results from all brands

Salespeople performance evaluation with predictive analytics in B2B

Performance Evaluation is a process that occurs multiple times per year on a company. During this process, the manager and the salesperson evaluate how the salesperson performed on numerous Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). To prepare the evaluation meeting, managers have to gather data from Customer Relationship Management System, Financial Systems, Excel files, among others, leading to a very time-consuming process. The result of the Performance Evaluation is a classification followed by actions to improve the performance where it is needed. Nowadays, through predictive analytics technologies, it is possible to make classifications based on data. In this work, the authors applied a Naive Bayes model over a dataset that is composed by sales from 594 salespeople along 3 years from a global freight forwarding company, to classify salespeople into pre-defined categories provided by the business. The classification is done in 3 classes, being: Not Performing, Good, and Outstanding. The classification was achieved based on KPI’s like growth volume and percentage, sales variability along the year, opportunities created, customer base line, target achievement among others. The authors assessed the performance of the model with a confusion matrix and other techniques like True Positives, True Negatives, and F1 score. The results showed an accuracy of 92.50% for the whole modelinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Demand Forecasting for Multichannel Fashion Retailers by Integrating Clustering and Machine Learning Algorithms

[[abstract]]In today’s rapidly changing and highly competitive industrial environment, a new and emerging business model—fast fashion—has started a revolution in the apparel industry. Due to the lack of historical data, constantly changing fashion trends, and product demand uncertainty, accurate demand forecasting is an important and challenging task in the fashion industry. This study integrates k-means clustering (KM), extreme learning machines (ELMs), and support vector regression (SVR) to construct cluster-based KM-ELM and KM-SVR models for demand forecasting in the fashion industry using empirical demand data of physical and virtual channels of a case company to examine the applicability of proposed forecasting models. The research results showed that both the KM-ELM and KM-SVR models are superior to the simple ELM and SVR models. They have higher prediction accuracy, indicating that the integration of clustering analysis can help improve predictions. In addition, the KM-ELM model produces satisfactory results when performing demand forecasting on retailers both with and without physical stores. Compared with other prediction models, it can be the most suitable demand forecasting method for the fashion industry.[[notice]]補正完

Applications of Machine Learning in Supply Chains

Advances in new technologies have resulted in increasing the speed of data generation and accessing larger data storage. The availability of huge datasets and massive computational power have resulted in the emergence of new algorithms in artificial intelligence and specifically machine learning, with significant research done in fields like computer vision. Although the same amount of data exists in most components of supply chains, there is not much research to utilize the power of raw data to improve efficiency in supply chains.In this dissertation our objective is to propose data-driven non-parametric machine learning algorithms to solve different supply chain problems in data-rich environments.Among wide range of supply chain problems, inventory management has been one of the main challenges in every supply chain. The ability to manage inventories to maximize the service level while minimizing holding costs is a goal of many company. An unbalanced inventory system can easily result in a stopped production line, back-ordered demands, lost sales, and huge extra costs. This dissertation studies three problems and proposes machine learning algorithms to help inventory managers reduce their inventory costs.In the first problem, we consider the newsvendor problem in which an inventory manager needs to determine the order quantity of a perishable product to minimize the sum of shortage and holding costs, while some feature information is available for each product. We propose a neural network approach with a specialized loss function to solve this problem. The neural network gets historical data and is trained to provide the order quantity. We show that our approach works better than the classical separated estimation and optimization approaches as well as other machine learning based algorithms. Especially when the historical data is noisy, and there is little data for each combination of features, our approach works much better than other approaches. Also, to show how this approach can be used in other common inventory policies, we apply it on an $(r,Q)$ policy and provide the results.This algorithm allows inventory managers to quickly determine an order quantity without obtaining the underling demand distribution.Now, assume the order quantities or safety stock levels are obtained for a single or multi-echelon system. Classical inventory optimization models work well in normal conditions, or in other words when all underlying assumptions are valid. Once one of the assumptions or the normal working conditions is violated, unplanned stock-outs or excess inventories arise.To address this issue, in the second problem, a multi-echelon supply network is considered, and the goal is to determine the nodes that might face a stock-out in the next period. Stock-outs are usually expensive and inventory managers try to avoid them, so stock-out prediction might results in averting stock-outs and the corresponding costs.In order to provide such predictions, we propose a neural network model and additionally three naive algorithms. We analyze the performance of the proposed algorithms by comparing them with classical forecasting algorithms and a linear regression model, over five network topologies. Numerical results show that the neural network model is quite accurate and obtains accuracies in $[0.92, 0.99]$ for the hardest to easiest network topologies, with average of 0.950 and standard deviation of 0.023, while the closest competitor, i.e., one of the proposed naive algorithms, obtains accuracies in $[0.91, 0.95]$ with average of 9.26 and standard deviation of .0136. Additionally, we suggest conditions under which each algorithm is the most reliable and additionally apply all algorithms to threshold and multi-period predictions.Although stock-out prediction can be very useful, any inventory manager would like to have a powerful model to optimize the inventory system and balance the holding and shortage costs. The literature on multi-echelon inventory models is quite rich, though it mostly relies on the assumption of accessing a known demand distribution. The demand distribution can be approximated, but even so, in some cases a globally optimal model is not available.In the third problem, we develop a machine learning algorithm to address this issue for multi-period inventory optimization problems in multi-echelon networks. We consider the well-known beer game problem and propose a reinforcement learning algorithm to efficiently learn ordering policies from data.The beer game is a serial supply chain with four agents, i.e. retailer, wholesaler, distributor, and manufacturer, in which each agent replenishes its stock by ordering beer from its predecessor. The retailer satisfies the demand of external customers, and the manufacturer orders from external suppliers. Each of the agents must decide its own order quantity to minimize the summation of holding and shortage cost of the system, while they are not allowed to share any information with other agents. For this setting, a base-stock policy is optimal, if the retailer is the only node with a positive shortage cost and a known demand distribution is available. Outside of this narrow condition, there is not a known optimal policy for this game. Also, from the game theory point of view, the beer game can be modeled as a decentralized multi-agent cooperative problem with partial observability, which is known as a NEXP-complete problem.We propose an extension of deep Q-network for making decisions about order quantities in a single node of the beer game. When the co-players follow a rational policy, it obtains a close-to-optimal solution, and it works much better than a base-stock policy if the other agents play irrationally. Additionally, to reduce the training time of the algorithm, we propose using transfer learning, which reduces the training time by one order of magnitude. This approach can be extended to other inventory optimization and supply chain problems

Peramalan Harga Pasar Telur Ayam Ras di Kota Malang dengan Menggunakan Metode "SVR-PSO"

Telur ayam ras menjadi salah satu sumber protein favorit masyarakat karena harganya cukup terjangkau dibandingkan sumber protein hewani lainnya yang dijual bebas di pasaran. Permasalahan utama yang dihadapi konsumen adalah fluktuasi harga pasar telur ayam ras di Kota Malang, ada kalanya harga naik dan ada kalanya harga turun. Hal ini akan menjadi masalah jika harga pasar naik tajam dari harga pada bulan-bulan sebelumnya. Pada penelitian ini dibuat sistem yang mampu meramalkan harga pasar dengan menggunakan metode Support Vector Regression (SVR) untuk melakukan peramalan dan metode Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) untuk mengoptimasi parameter SVR. Proses optimasi terdiri dari 4 tahapan utama, yaitu tahapan normalisasi, tahapan pelatihan SVR, tahapan PSO, dan tahapan pengujian SVR. Pada pengujian SVR didapatkan nilai MAPE terkecil yaitu sebesar 6,2186% dan pada pengujian SVR-PSO didapatkan nilai MAPE terkecil sebesar 1,8840%