Can a change in cropping patterns produce water savings and social gains: A case study from the Fergana Valley, Central Asia

Abstract The study examines possible water savings by replacing alfalfa with winter wheat in the Fergana Valley, located upstream of the Syrdarya River in Central Asia. Agricultural reforms since the 1990s have promoted this change in cropping patterns in the Central Asian states to enhance food security and social benefits. The water use of alfalfa, winter wheat/fallow, and winter wheat/green gram (double cropping) systems is compared for high-deficit, low-deficit, and full irrigation scenarios using hydrological modeling with the HYDRUS-1D software package. Modeling results indicate that replacing alfalfa with winter wheat in the Fergana Valley released significant water resources, mainly by reducing productive crop transpiration when abandoning alfalfa in favor of alternative cropping systems. However, the winter wheat/fallow cropping system caused high evaporation losses from fallow land after harvesting of winter wheat. Double cropping (i.e., the cultivation of green gram as a short duration summer crop after winter wheat harvesting) reduced evaporation losses, enhanced crop output and hence food security, while generating water savings that make more water available for other productive uses. Beyond water savings, this paper also discusses the economic and social gains that double cropping produces for the public within a broader developmental context

Evaluation of the DNDC Model to Estimate Soil Parameters, Crop Yield and Nitrous Oxide Emissions for Alternative Long-Term Multi-Cropping Systems in the North China Plain

Funding Information: Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China (41830751), Hainan University Startup Fund (KYQD(ZR)-20098), the N Circle–a BBSRC-Newton Funded project (BB/N013484/1) and EU Horizon 2020 Programme (Super-G). We thank Bing Gao for providing measurement datasets and Xinping Chen for managing the field trial.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Calibration and validation of the DNDC model to estimate nitrous oxide emissions and crop productivity for a summer maize-winter wheat double cropping system in Hebei, China

We thank Dr. Min Liu for providing the field measurement data and Prof. Xinping Chen for providing the data of crop yields. We acknowledge the financial supported from the N Circle - a BBSRC-Newton Funded project (BB/N013484/1), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41830751) and EU Horizon 2020 programme (SuperG).Peer reviewedPostprin

Policies drain the North China Plain: Agricultural policy and groundwater depletion in Luancheng County, 1949-2000

Agricultural production / Groundwater / Aquifers / Water shortage / Irigation efficiency / Agricultural policy / Crop production / Wastewaters / Water management / Hydrology / Economic development / Crop yield / Cotton / Wheat / Sprinkler irrigation / Water conservation / Water use efficiency / Pumping / Water balance / Vegetables / Rural economy / Irrigated framing

The implications of policy settings on land use and agricultural technology adoption in North-West India

The irrigated rice-wheat cropping system is the predominant and most profitable farming system in north-west India, especially in Punjab. However, there are growing concerns about the environmental effects of the system, particularly with the practice of burning rice stubbles, due to its adverse effects on human health and air pollution. In this paper we consider the wide array of policy settings that tend to favour current land uses and management practices and their impact on the farming system over time. As part of an ACIAR-funded project, we assess the significance of these policies with a view to considering what additional or alternative policies could be put in place to encourage the adoption of approaches or technologies directly concerned with reducing the practice of stubble burning. We conclude that many of these policy settings limit the gains from technology adoption and might be better addressed prior to considering policies aimed at specific technological solutions.agricultural policy, air pollution, stubble burning, technology adoption, India, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use, Political Economy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Development of a spatial planning support system for agricultural policy formulation related to land and water resources in Borkhar & Meymeh district, Iran

In this study, a system was developed to support agricultural planners and policy makers in land resource analysis, policy formulation, identification of possible policy measures and policy impact analysis. The research is part of a larger programme, aiming at development of a model system to support agricultural policy formulation at national level. The current study focused on methodology development and its implementation in Borkhar & Meymeh district in Esfahan province, Iran. The system comprises three main components, i.e. resource analysis, policy impact assessment and policy evaluation. The biophysical resource analysis was carried out using CGMS, the Crop Growth Monitoring System which includes WOFOST, a generic crop growth simulation model. This model simulates growth of annual crops in the potential and water-limited production situations, based on daily weather data, crop characteristics and soil physical characteristics. For this purpose, crop characteristics of winter wheat and winter barley were calibrated based on research data from the agro-meteorological research center of Kaboutar Abad, Esfahan, Iran. Crop characteristics of silage maize, sugar beet, sunflower and potato were calibrated based on yields of the best agricultural producers in the region. For the weather stations in which solar radiation was not measured, it was estimated from sunshine-hours or temperature, using empirical relations. A sensitivity analysis on method of solar radiation estimation was carried out to test model performance in terms of simulated crop yield and water requirements for winter barley and sugar beet as representatives of winter and summer crops, respectively. Results of this analysis showed that the maximum difference in simulated crop yield based on estimated and measured solar radiation is less than 10%. CGMS was used for land resource analysis at the regional (district) scale. The potentially suitable area for agriculture in the district was identified and classified into 128 homogenous units (referred to in this study as Elementary Mapping Units, EMU) in terms of soil, weather and administrative unit. For each EMU, soil physical characteristics were derived from available soil maps and soil analyses reports. Daily weather characteristics (maximum and minimum temperature, vapor pressure, wind speed, rainfall, and solar radiation) were generated for the centre of each EMU by interpolation of daily weather data of 33 weather stations, located in and around the district. CGMS was then modified to allow calculation of irrigated crop yields. Yields of major crops and water requirements per decade were simulated using CGMS for three irrigation regimes (full irrigation, 20% and 40% deficit irrigation). Fertilizer requirements for the three macro-nutrients, nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, for each level of crop production were estimated based on soil chemical characteristics, crop yields and nutrient content in economic crop products and crop residues. An alternative methodology was developed for spatial estimation of crop yields, water and fertilizer requirements of crops (alfalfa, melon, watermelon, and colza) that could not be simulated by CGMS, either because of model limitations or lack of data for model calibration. The ratio of current and potential crop yields, referred to as production efficiency, was used as an indicator of management ability of farmers and was used in farm classification. The policy formulation process consists of three steps: i) selection of policy objectives, ii) identification of policy instruments and iii) assessment and analysis of their impacts. In this study, policy objectives and relevant policy instruments were derived from the latest agricultural development documents. A model was developed to assess the impacts of policy instruments and another model for analysis of these impacts from different perspectives. As reactions of farmers to policy instruments may be different, depending on their socioeconomic situation and the biophysical characteristics of their land, a planning (modelling) unit was defined, homogenous in terms of biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics. For this purpose, farms belonging to each of the agricultural production systems (e.g., traditional, cooperative and agroindustrial) were classified into farm types, based on land and water availability, overall production efficiency and average net income per ha. These farm types were combined with land units to form the basic units of analysis, i.e. farm type-land units (FTLU), homogenous in terms of biophysical potential, as well as in resource endowments and management ability of farmers. A distributed linear programming model was developed to assess policy impacts by simulating the response of the various farm types to specific policy instruments. This model is optimizing a utility function, composed of a combination of net income and production cost, subject to various constraints at different spatial scales (e.g., farm type-land unit, farm type, village, and subdistrict). The model was validated based on the conditions of the year 2002-03 by comparing simulated crop yields and total crop production in Borkhar subdistrict with detailed agricultural census data. Indicators, representing the effect/impact of policy instruments on economic, social, and environmental objectives of various stakeholders were selected and quantified in a post-model analysis. In a model experiment, the reactions of the different farm types to three policy instruments, aiming at increasing agricultural water productivity in Borkhar sub-district were simulated. A multi-criteria evaluation technique was used for policy analysis through overall assessment of the various economic, social and environmental indicators to evaluate the effectiveness of various policy instruments. The developed system represents a further step in the development of computeraided decision support systems for land use analysis that have received ample attention in the research community, in response to the perceived needs of policy makers. The consultations with planners in the course of the study, leads to the conclusion, however, that still a long way has to be gone to bridge the gap between the policy makers that are asking questions that land use modelers can not answer and the land use modelers that are generating answers to questions that policy makers are not (willing to) ask(ing). <br/

Environmental and economic assessment of the intensive wheat - maize production system in the North China Plain

To ensure food security for its vast population input intensification in crop production has been one of Chinas major strategies in the last decades. However, the negative environmental impact of the highly intensive crop production becomes apparent. Especially the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) constitutes a major sustainability issue of crop production in China. The winter wheat - summer maize (WW-SM) double cropping system plays a crucial role for Chinas national food security. Strong research efforts mainly focusing on field experiments insufficiently consider the economic viability of the proposed improvement strategies and farmersactual crop management. Therefore this study aims to fill this void by assessing farmersactual crop management in the WW-SM production system, with regard to its environmental and economic performance to derive suitable improvement strategies for more sustainable crop production in the North China Plain (NCP). This cumulative PhD thesis consists of three papers published or accepted with revisions in international peer-reviewed journals. A field survey conducted in 2011 interviewing 65 WW-SM producing farm households constitutes the core data base for the thesisanalysis. The data was supplemented by expert interviews and specific secondary data. Partial life cycle analysis and economic assessment were conducted, comprising GHG emission, product carbon footprint (PCF), gross margin (GM), variable cost per unit product and life cycle costing (LCC) as key environmental and economic indicators, respectively. The first article describes the status quo of single farm environmental and economic performance of 65 WW-SM producers. The results revealed a huge heterogeneity among farms. Astonishingly no trade-off between productivity and sustainability could be identified in the region. Building on cluster analysis, with farms grouped according to their economic and environmental performance into poor, fair and good producers, the regional GHG mitigation potential was estimated. Under the scenario assumption that all grain in the NCP is produced under good production conditions, 21% and 7% of GHG could be mitigated in wheat and maize production, respectively. To be able to address the existing heterogeneity and develop strategies towards attaining GHG mitigation in practice, the second article aimed at assessing the factors determining farmers current environmental and economic performance. Using stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) it was revealed that nitrogen (N) input and electricity for irrigation were responsible for 0.787 and 0.802 of variability (adjusted R2) in the GHG emission results of the WW and SM production, respectively. Electricity for irrigation and labor were the most significant factors explaining the differences in LCC of WW and SM production, with an adjusted coefficient of determination (adjusted R2) of 0.397 and 0.29. This finding indicates that N input, electricity for irrigation and labor are key target areas for lowering GHG emissions and production costs of the WW-SM production system in the NCP. As revealed in the second article overuse of N fertilizer, which actually constitutes a major current issue in China, offers great potential for reducing GHG emissions and production costs in the WW-SM production system. Therefore in the third article three simple and easily to apply N fertilizer recommendation strategies are tested, which could be implemented on large scale through the existing agricultural advisory system of China, at comparatively low cost. Building on the household dataset, the effects of the three N strategies under constant and changing yield levels on PCF and GM were determined for every individual farm household. The N fixed rate strategy realized the highest improvement potential in PCF and GM in WW; while the N coefficient strategy performed best in SM. The analysis furthermore revealed that improved N management has a significant positive effect on PCF, but only a marginal and insignificant effect on GM. On the other side, a potential 10 % yield loss would have only a marginal effect on PCF, but a detrimental effect on farmersincome. It will be of vital importance to avoid any yield reductions and respective severe financial losses, when promoting and implementing advanced fertilization strategies. Therefore, it is furthermore recommended to increase the price of fertilizer, improve the agricultural extensions system, and recognize farmers fertilizer related decision-making processes as key research areas. The presented thesis gives valuable contributions to the development of environmentally and economically more sustainable crop production systems in the NCP. The thesis concludes that an adjustment in the agricultural advisory system is required, supported by more interdisciplinary research, which is able to address the inherent complexity of realizing more sustainable crop production in China.In seinen Anstrengungen Ernährungssicherheit für seine riesige Bevölkerung zu gewährleisten, stellt die Intensivierung der Pflanzenproduktion Chinas wichtigste Strategie dar. Jedoch treten in den letzten Jahren vermehrt die negativen Umweltwirkungen der hochintensiven Pflanzenproduktion zu Tage. Emission von Treibhausgasen (THG) und der entsprechende Beitrag zur globalen Erwärmung sind besonders ein großes Nachhaltigkeitsproblem der Pflanzenproduktion in China. Als wichtigstes Anbausystem in Nordchina spielt das Winterweizen - Sommermais - Doppelanbausystem eine wichtige Rolle für Chinas Ernährungssicherheit. Die Agrarforschung konzentriert sich auf Feldversuchsbasierte Ansätze. Daher zielt die vorliegende Studie darauf ab, diese Lücke durch die Evaluierung des tatsächlichen ackerbaulichen Managements der Landwirte im WW-SM Produktionssystem zu schließen. Durch die ökologische und ökonomische Bewertung des Systems können passende Verbesserungsstrategien für eine nachhaltigere Pflanzenproduktion in China entwickelt werden, mit besonderem Fokus auf THG Vermeidung in der nordchinesischen Tiefebene (NCT). Diese kumulative Dissertation besteht aus drei Artikeln, die in internationalen peer-reviewed Zeitschriften veröffentlicht oder mit Revision zur Veröffentlichung akzeptiert sind. Eine 2011 durchgeführte Feldstudie bei der 65 WW-SM produzierende landwirtschaftliche Betriebe befragt wurden stellt die Datengrundlage dieser Thesis. Die Daten wurden durch Experteninterviews und spezifische Sekundärdaten ergänzt. Partielle Lebenszyklusanalyse und ökonomische Bewertung wurden durchgeführt, die THG-Emissionen, Produkt-CO2-Fußabdruck (PCF), Deckungsbeitrag (DB), variable Kosten pro Produktionseinheit (VK) und Lebenszykluskosten (LZK) als ökologische und ökonomische Schlüsselindikatoren umfassten. Der erste Artikel beschreibt eine sehr hohe Heterogenität unter den Betrieben. Erstaunlicherweise zeigte sich in der Region nicht der erwartete Zielkonflikt zwischen Produktivität und Nachhaltigkeit; Hochertragsbetreibe emittierten keine erhöhten Mengen an THG pro Hektar im Vergleich zu den Niedrigertragsbetrieben. Aufbauend auf Clusteranalyse, bei der die Betriebe entsprechend ihres ökologischen und ökonomischen Abschneidens nach schwachen, mittleren und guten Betreiben gruppiert wurden, wurde das regionale THG-Vermeidungspotential bewertet. Um die existierende Heterogenität zu adressieren und Treibhausgasvermeidungsstrategien für die Praxis zu entwickeln, zielte der zweite Artikel darauf ab, die Einflussfaktoren des ökonomischen und ökologischen Abschneidens der Landwirte zu eruieren. Während im Durchschnitt 4107 und 3185 kg CO2-äquivalente THG-Emissionen pro Hektar, und LZK von 1176 und 1190 US$ pro Hektar im WW und SM ermittelt wurden, existiert eine gewaltige Streuung unter den Produzenten. Die Ergebnisse zeigt, dass Stickstoffdüngung, Elektrizität für Bewässerung und Arbeitseinsatz die Schlüsselgebiete zur Verringerung der THG-Emissionen und Produktionskosten in der WW und SM Erzeugung in der NCP darstellen. Wie die Analyse des zweiten Artikels gezeigt hat, liegt in der Reduzierung der Stickstoffüberdüngung, die derzeit eines der akutesten Probleme der Pflanzenproduktion in China darstellt, ein sehr großes Potential die THG-Emissionen und Produktionskosten im WW-SM Anbausystem zu reduzieren. Daher werden im dritten Artikel drei klare und einfach anzuwendende N-Düngungsempfehlungsstrategien getestet, die in großem Maßstab durch das existierende landwirtschaftliche Beratungssystem Chinas zu geringen Kosten implementiert werden könnten. Aufbauend auf dem detaillierten Pflanzenproduktions-datensatz der 65 WW-SM produzierenden Betriebe wurde Szenarien-Analyse angewandt. Die Effekte der drei N-Strategien auf PCF und DB wurden unter konstantem und sich verändernden Ertragsniveau unter den Produktionsbedingungen jedes individuellen Haushalts bestimmt. Die N fixierte Rate Strategie erzielte das höchste Verbesserungspotential im PCF und DB im WW; hingegen erzielte die N Koeffizienten Strategie die besten Ergebnisse im SM. Die Analyse hat desweiteren gezeigt, dass ein verbessertes N Management ein signifikant positiven Effekt auf PCF hat, jedoch nur einen marginalen und insignifikanten Effekt auf DB. Auf der anderen Seite hätte ein potentieller Ertragsverlust um 10% nur einen marginalen Effekt auf den PCF, jedoch einen sehr nachteiligen Effekt auf das Einkommen der Landwirte. Die vorliegende Thesis bietet wichtige Beiträge zur Entwicklung ökologisch und ökonomisch nachhaltigerer Pflanzenproduktionssysteme in der NCT. Die aufeinander aufbauenden Analysen der drei Artikel zeigt klar, dass eine potentielle Optimierung des ackerbaulichen Managements der Landwirte, dass auf eine Verringerung der Umweltbelastung abzielt, gleichzeitig zu einer ökonomisch vorteilhaften Entwicklung führt

TOPICS IN MODELLING ADAPTATION DYNAMICS OF CHINESE AGRICULTURE TO OBSERVED CLIMATE CHANGE

Chinese farmers have adopted multiple adaptation measures to mitigate the negative impact of, and to capture the opportunities brought by, the observed climate change in the last several decades. Such adaptations will continue in the coming decades given the foreseeing climate change. Scientifically assessing such dynamism of suitable agricultural adaptation requires unprecedented efforts of the research community to simulate and predict the interactions among crop growth dynamics, the environment and crop management, and cropping systems at and across various scales. This calls for efforts aiming to quantify the interactions of agro-ecological processes across different scales. This dissertation intends to make scientific contributions in this direction. The leading goal of this dissertation is to develop a cross-scale modeling framework that is capable of incorporating the field agricultural advances into the design and evaluation of regional cropping system adaptation strategies. It then applies this framework to identify feasible cropping system adaptation strategies under observed warmer climate and quantify their potential benefits to the grain production and water sustainability in the major cropping regions in north China. Three objectives of this study are: (1) Develop a cross-scale model-coupling framework between the site level DSSAT model and the regional level AEZ model to improve the AEZ performance in capturing the northern expansion of japonica rice under a warmer climate in the Northeast China Plain. (2) Construct a new wheat-maize cropping systems adaptation strategy to meet the double challenge of maintaining the regional grain production level and recovering local groundwater table in the semi-arid North China Plain, where the persistent overexploitation of groundwater has caused severe environmental damages. (3) Establish a dynamic adaptation strategy to identify the desired water sustainable cropping systems across different localities and to meet the challenge of recovery local groundwater table and minimize the output losses of wheat and then total grain production in the Hebei Plain, where the irrigation water shortage has threatened wheat production and thus potentially compromising China’s food security. This dissertation will improve our understanding of the interactions and interlinkage across multi-scale agro-ecosystems in mitigating the environmental risks associated with the irrigation-intensive farming and in adapting to climate change. The cropping systems adaptation strategies proposed by this dissertation provide scientific basis for future agricultural adaptation policy design compatible with local agro-climatic, land and soil conditions across China