5 research outputs found
Instance Selection using Genetic Algorithms for an Intelligent Ensemble Trading System
Instance selection is a way to remove unnecessary data that can adversely affect the prediction model, thereby selecting representative and relevant data from the original data set that is expected to improve predictive performance. Instance selection plays an important role in improving the scalability of data mining algorithms and has also proven to be successful over a wide range of classification problems. However, instance selection using an evolutionary approach, as proposed in this study, is different from previous methods that have focused on improving accuracy performance in the stock market (i.e., Up or Down forecast). In fact, we propose a new approach to instance selection that uses genetic algorithms (GAs) to define a set of target labels that can identify the buying and selling signals and then select instances according to three performance measures of the trading system (i.e., the winning ratio, the payoff ratio, and the profit factor). An intelligent ensemble trading system with instance selection using GAs is then developed for investors in the stock market. An empirical study of the proposed model is conducted using 35 companies from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the New York Stock Exchange, and the Nasdaq Stock Market from January, 2006 to December, 2016
Financial Trading Model with Stock Bar Chart Image Time Series with Deep Convolutional Neural Networks
Even though computational intelligence techniques have been extensively
utilized in financial trading systems, almost all developed models use the time
series data for price prediction or identifying buy-sell points. However, in
this study we decided to use 2-D stock bar chart images directly without
introducing any additional time series associated with the underlying stock. We
propose a novel algorithmic trading model CNN-BI (Convolutional Neural Network
with Bar Images) using a 2-D Convolutional Neural Network. We generated 2-D
images of sliding windows of 30-day bar charts for Dow 30 stocks and trained a
deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model for our algorithmic trading
model. We tested our model separately between 2007-2012 and 2012-2017 for
representing different market conditions. The results indicate that the model
was able to outperform Buy and Hold strategy, especially in trendless or bear
markets. Since this is a preliminary study and probably one of the first
attempts using such an unconventional approach, there is always potential for
improvement. Overall, the results are promising and the model might be
integrated as part of an ensemble trading model combined with different
strategies.Comment: accepted to be published in Intelligent Automation and Soft Computing
journa
Predicting the Daily Return Direction of the Stock Market using Hybrid Machine Learning Algorithms
Big data analytic techniques associated with machine learning algorithms are playing an increasingly important role in various application fields, including stock market investment. However, few studies have focused on forecasting daily stock market returns, especially when using powerful machine learning techniques, such as deep neural networks (DNNs), to perform the analyses. DNNs employ various deep learning algorithms based on the combination of network structure, activation function, and model parameters, with their performance depending on the format of the data representation. This paper presents a comprehensive big data analytics process to predict the daily return direction of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker symbol: SPY) based on 60 financial and economic features. DNNs and traditional artificial neural networks (ANNs) are then deployed over the entire preprocessed but untransformed dataset, along with two datasets transformed via principal component analysis (PCA), to predict the daily direction of future stock market index returns. While controlling for overfitting, a pattern for the classification accuracy of the DNNs is detected and demonstrated as the number of the hidden layers increases gradually from 12 to 1000. Moreover, a set of hypothesis testing procedures are implemented on the classification, and the simulation results show that the DNNs using two PCA-represented datasets give significantly higher classification accuracy than those using the entire untransformed dataset, as well as several other hybrid machine learning algorithms. In addition, the trading strategies guided by the DNN classification process based on PCA-represented data perform slightly better than the others tested, including in a comparison against two standard benchmarks
Training Multilayer Perceptron with Genetic Algorithms and Particle Swarm Optimization for Modeling Stock Price Index Prediction
publishedVersio
TM-vector: A Novel Forecasting Approach for Market stock movement with a Rich Representation of Twitter and Market data
Stock market forecasting has been a challenging part for many analysts and
researchers. Trend analysis, statistical techniques, and movement indicators
have traditionally been used to predict stock price movements, but text
extraction has emerged as a promising method in recent years. The use of neural
networks, especially recurrent neural networks, is abundant in the literature.
In most studies, the impact of different users was considered equal or ignored,
whereas users can have other effects. In the current study, we will introduce
TM-vector and then use this vector to train an IndRNN and ultimately model the
market users' behaviour. In the proposed model, TM-vector is simultaneously
trained with both the extracted Twitter features and market information.
Various factors have been used for the effectiveness of the proposed
forecasting approach, including the characteristics of each individual user,
their impact on each other, and their impact on the market, to predict market
direction more accurately. Dow Jones 30 index has been used in current work.
The accuracy obtained for predicting daily stock changes of Apple is based on
various models, closed to over 95\% and for the other stocks is significant.
Our results indicate the effectiveness of TM-vector in predicting stock market
direction.Comment: 24 pag