A Categorical Data Analysis on Financial Failures in Vietnam, 2007-2013

In this paper, we examined 256 cases of financial failure and fraud occuring during the recent Vietnam’s chaotic years from 2007 to 2013, employing methods of categorical data analysis. Reported results suggest that the rent-seeking approach, or resource-based orientation, alone does not help explain the outcome of a business intention while the association between Orientation and Approach is the best-fit predictor. Rampant financial collapse not only increases the cost of funds but also erodes trust in the economy. Entrepreneurship development and creativity capacity building are necessary to improve socio-economic conditions and the environment. This work also introduces intuitive and cognitive factors to predict ex-ante outcome of a financing scheme

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK RETURN AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN VIETNAMESE STOCK MARKET - AN APPLICATION OF VAR AND VECM

This study examines the long-run equilibrium relationships and the short-run dynamic adjustment between four of domestic macroeconomic variables and stock returns of Vietnamese stock market. The macroeconomic variables analyzed are interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, and the industrial productivity using monthly observations from September 2000 through December 2006. In addition, the relationship of Vietnam index with Chinese index is examined. The approaches applied in this paper are co-integration test, variance decomposition and impulse response function. Econometric results support the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships between the macroeconomic variables and the Vietnamese stock market. The short-run dynamic adjustment between macroeconomic variables and Vietnamese Stock market is weak and statistically insignificant based on empirical results. Empirical results support that Chinese Stock market index is the main driven of Vietnamese Stock Market.fi=Opinnäytetyö kokotekstinä PDF-muodossa.|en=Thesis fulltext in PDF format.|sv=Lärdomsprov tillgängligt som fulltext i PDF-format

Abstracts : policy research working paper series - numbers 2197 - 2261

This paper contains abstracts of Policy Research Working Paper series Numbers 2197-2261.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Health Economics&Finance,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

The effect of financial and economic growth on tourism development in emerging economies: a study of Vietnam for the interval 1990-2020.

Purpose: The primary study objective is to determine the interaction between economic, financial, and tourism development in Vietnam for the 1990-2020 intervals. Design:This study is conducted through a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods using secondary data from WorldBank, Ourworldindata, and the Vietnam Bureau of Statistics. Methodology: The ARDL model is a statistically more robust approach for cointegration testing; then the ECM model was used to test for short-term effects and finally the Granger test for causality between the observed variables. Findings: Investigating the vital internal force that promotes tourism development reveals that finance and economic growth are crucially crucial during the 31-year study period. To illustrate, the economic and financial contribution to the positive change of tourism is up to 30.4% and 18.1%, respectively. Excitedly, the Granger test demonstrates a one-way causal relationship between economic growth and tourism development, tourism development, and finance development, and finance development and economic growth. In other words, it is a circle that demonstrates a consistently positive impact from tourism development to finance development, from finance development to economic growth, and finally, from economic growth to tourism development. The originality of the research: This paper highlights the role and impact level of the economic and financial sector on the tourism industry of a new Asian tiger and can be considered as the first study on Vietnam. The findings investigate how the economy functioned in the past and support policymakers in establishing future development policies, particularly in post-pandemic recovery

The Efficiency and the Performance of the Logistics Global Supply Chain Activities to Vietnam Exportation: an Empirical Case Study

Purpose: This research paper aims to determine the factors affecting the efficiency and logistics performance index (LPI) of Vietnam's exports to foreign partners during 2018-2022 are due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.   Theoretical Framework: Based on the primary factors affecting the efficiency and performance of global supply chain activities in logistics for Vietnam's exports, including practical impact and logistics results of enterprises in Vietnam. Based on the primary factors affecting the efficiency and performance of global supply chain activities in logistics for Vietnam's exports, including (1). Customs efficiency (speed, simplicity and predictability of customs clearance procedures) (2). Quality of infrastructure related to trade and transport, including Roads, railways, ports, airports, warehouses and information technology ...(3). The level of ease when arranging to transport import and export goods with competitive prices (costs such as warehousing fees, port fees, tolls ... ) (4). Capacity and quality of logistics service providers ... (5). Ability to track and trace shipments. (6). Timeliness of the shipment to the destination within the specified time limit. The practical impact and logistics results of enterprises in Vietnam.   Method: The panel approach allows the authors to explore the heterogeneity in data across countries. Fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) models were used to estimate the model. Then, the Hausman test is carried out to decide which model is appropriate. The data were collected from 240 observations from Vietnam and 80 major export partner countries of Vietnam.   Findings: The research results show that the cost, time and capacity of providing logistics services have the most significant impact on Vietnam's exports.   Practical & social implications: Overall, to increase the efficiency and logistics efficiency of enterprises. The Vietnamese Government needs to cooperate and propose ideas to partner countries to improve logistics activities for exports from Vietnam. Logistics is beginning to play an increasingly important role in the competitiveness of economies.   Originality values: This study also confirms the sustainability of the extended gravity model using OLS and RE methods by substituting different variables for the country's logistics efficiency and solving the endogenous problem in the model while applying the regression method to industrial variables. We find that an 1% improvement in Vietnam's logistics would increase Vietnam's exports by 1.443%, and an 1% improvement in a partner country’s performance would help promote Vietnam's exports to this country by 0.546%

The Causality Relationship between Hnx Index and Stock Trading Volume in Hanoi Stock Exchange

This paper examines the casual relations between the market return and trading volume for the Ha Noi Stock Exchange during the period from May 3th , 2013 to March 2rd, 2016. This paper uses Granger test and the results showed that the change of the volume of transactions that affect the change of HNX-Index. On the basis of this conclusion, we shall determine the degree of influence of the change in trading volume with HNX-Index by means of regression analysis

User's guide to an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability in Latin American countries

The authors develop an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability for several Latin American countries, drawing on the work of Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and Kaminsky (1988). They build a composite leading indicator that signals macroeconomic vulnerability, showing that, historically, crises tend to happen in certain"vulnerable"situations. Interested mainly in providing an operational tool, the authors use a different approach to the problem than Kaminsky did. First, they use fewer variables to generate the signals. Then, after the variables are aggregated, a signal is issued, depending on the behavior of the composite index. (Kaminsky's procedure was to generate signals with each variable and then aggregate them.) Their results are satisfactory both statistically and operationally. Statistically, Type I and II errors are smaller than those reported in previous papers. Operationally, this system of leading indicators is less costly to maintain, given fewer variables-which are widely available and reported with timeliness. The authors tested the models'out-of-sample predictive ability on crises that occurred after the first stage of their project was finished: Colombia (September 1998), Brazil (January 1999), and Ecuador (February 1999). In all cases the models correctly anticipated the speculative attacks. Moreover, Mexico's models, estimated with information available two years before the 1994 crisis, show that these signaling devices would have been useful for signaling the macroeconomic vulnerability before December 1994.Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Educational Technology and Distance Education,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Educational Technology and Distance Education,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Geographical Information Systems

Mergers, Acquisitions and Market Concentration in the Banking Sector: The Case of Vietnam

Following the global trend, Vietnam also started opening up its economy and domestic reforms in 1986 and implemented a number domestic market reforms including in the banking and finance system. The merger and acquisitions (M&A) of banks have been a main component of the reform process. There have not been serious attempts to evaluate the M&A process and its impacts on the banking industry in a systematic way. The main purpose of this study is to fill that literature gap by providing a historical narrative of the M&A activities in Vietnam’s banking industry and analyzing its impacts on the system and market structure via quantitative and qualitative approaches, particularly using concentration indices

Tropical bubbles : asset prices in Latin America, 1980-2001

The authors test for the existence of asset price bubbles in Latin America in 1980-2001, focusing mainly on stock prices. Based on unit root and cointegration tests, they find that they cannot reject the hypothesis of bubbles. They arrive at the same conclusion using Froot and Obstfeld's intrinsic bubbles model. To examine empirical regularities of these bubble episodes in the region, the authors identify periods of significant stock price overvaluation. They quantify the relative importance of different factors that determine the probability of bubble occurrence, focusing on the contrast between the country-specific variables and the common external factors. They include as country-specific variables both the level and the volatility of domestic credit growth, the volatility of asset returns, the capital flows to each country, and the terms of trade. As common external variables, they consider the degree of asset overvaluation in the U.S. stock and real estate markets and the term spread of U.S. Treasury securities. To quantitatively assess the relative importance of each factor, they estimate a logit model for a panel of five Latin American countries from 1985 to 2001. In general, the authors find that the marginal probabilities of common and country-specific variables are of roughly the same order of magnitude. This finding contrasts with those of previous studies that real asset returns in Latin America are dominated by local factors. Finally, the authors explore the main channels through which asset prices affect real economic activity, with the most important being the balance sheet effect and its impact on bank lending. They show how the allocation of bank lending across different sectors responded sensitively to real estate prices during the boom years in countries that experienced banking crises. Thus asset price bubbles have long-lasting effects in the financial sector and, through this channel, on growth. Another channel through which asset prices-particularly stock market prices-affect long-run growth is through their effect on investment. The authors find a strong positive association between stock prices and investment and a negative effect of stock price volatility on investment. An additional motive for the central bank to monitor asset prices is the general coincidence of the crash episodes identified by the authors with currency crises in the region in the past two decades.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Intermediation,Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access,Environmental Economics&Policies