95 research outputs found
Limitations of polynomial chaos expansions in the Bayesian solution of inverse problems
Polynomial chaos expansions are used to reduce the computational cost in the
Bayesian solutions of inverse problems by creating a surrogate posterior that
can be evaluated inexpensively. We show, by analysis and example, that when the
data contain significant information beyond what is assumed in the prior, the
surrogate posterior can be very different from the posterior, and the resulting
estimates become inaccurate. One can improve the accuracy by adaptively
increasing the order of the polynomial chaos, but the cost may increase too
fast for this to be cost effective compared to Monte Carlo sampling without a
surrogate posterior
A variational Bayesian method for inverse problems with impulsive noise
We propose a novel numerical method for solving inverse problems subject to
impulsive noises which possibly contain a large number of outliers. The
approach is of Bayesian type, and it exploits a heavy-tailed t distribution for
data noise to achieve robustness with respect to outliers. A hierarchical model
with all hyper-parameters automatically determined from the given data is
described. An algorithm of variational type by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler
divergence between the true posteriori distribution and a separable
approximation is developed. The numerical method is illustrated on several one-
and two-dimensional linear and nonlinear inverse problems arising from heat
conduction, including estimating boundary temperature, heat flux and heat
transfer coefficient. The results show its robustness to outliers and the fast
and steady convergence of the algorithm.Comment: 20 pages, to appear in J. Comput. Phy
Application of a Bayesian Inference Method to Reconstruct Short-Range Atmospheric Dispersion Events
In the event of an accidental or intentional release of chemical or biological (CB) agents into the atmosphere, first responders and decision makers need to rapidly locate and characterize the source of dispersion events using limited information from sensor networks. In this study the stochastic event reconstruction tool (SERT) is applied to a subset of the Fusing Sensor Information from Observing Networks (FUSION) Field Trial 2007 (FFT 07) database. The inference in SERT is based on Bayesian inference with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. SERT adopts a probability model that takes into account both positive and zero-reading sensors. In addition to the location and strength of the dispersion event, empirical parameters in the forward model are also estimated to establish a data-driven plume model. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of the Bayesian inference approach to characterize the source of a short range atmospheric release with uncertainty quantification
Parameter estimation by implicit sampling
Implicit sampling is a weighted sampling method that is used in data
assimilation, where one sequentially updates estimates of the state of a
stochastic model based on a stream of noisy or incomplete data. Here we
describe how to use implicit sampling in parameter estimation problems, where
the goal is to find parameters of a numerical model, e.g.~a partial
differential equation (PDE), such that the output of the numerical model is
compatible with (noisy) data. We use the Bayesian approach to parameter
estimation, in which a posterior probability density describes the probability
of the parameter conditioned on data and compute an empirical estimate of this
posterior with implicit sampling. Our approach generates independent samples,
so that some of the practical difficulties one encounters with Markov Chain
Monte Carlo methods, e.g.~burn-in time or correlations among dependent samples,
are avoided. We describe a new implementation of implicit sampling for
parameter estimation problems that makes use of multiple grids (coarse to fine)
and BFGS optimization coupled to adjoint equations for the required gradient
calculations. The implementation is "dimension independent", in the sense that
a well-defined finite dimensional subspace is sampled as the mesh used for
discretization of the PDE is refined. We illustrate the algorithm with an
example where we estimate a diffusion coefficient in an elliptic equation from
sparse and noisy pressure measurements. In the example, dimension\slash
mesh-independence is achieved via Karhunen-Lo\`{e}ve expansions
Surrogate Accelerated Bayesian Inversion for the Determination of the Thermal Diffusivity of a Material
Determination of the thermal properties of a material is an important task in
many scientific and engineering applications. How a material behaves when
subjected to high or fluctuating temperatures can be critical to the safety and
longevity of a system's essential components. The laser flash experiment is a
well-established technique for indirectly measuring the thermal diffusivity,
and hence the thermal conductivity, of a material. In previous works,
optimization schemes have been used to find estimates of the thermal
conductivity and other quantities of interest which best fit a given model to
experimental data. Adopting a Bayesian approach allows for prior beliefs about
uncertain model inputs to be conditioned on experimental data to determine a
posterior distribution, but probing this distribution using sampling techniques
such as Markov chain Monte Carlo methods can be incredibly computationally
intensive. This difficulty is especially true for forward models consisting of
time-dependent partial differential equations. We pose the problem of
determining the thermal conductivity of a material via the laser flash
experiment as a Bayesian inverse problem in which the laser intensity is also
treated as uncertain. We introduce a parametric surrogate model that takes the
form of a stochastic Galerkin finite element approximation, also known as a
generalized polynomial chaos expansion, and show how it can be used to sample
efficiently from the approximate posterior distribution. This approach gives
access not only to the sought-after estimate of the thermal conductivity but
also important information about its relationship to the laser intensity, and
information for uncertainty quantification. We also investigate the effects of
the spatial profile of the laser on the estimated posterior distribution for
the thermal conductivity
Compressive sensing adaptation for polynomial chaos expansions
Basis adaptation in Homogeneous Chaos spaces rely on a suitable rotation of
the underlying Gaussian germ. Several rotations have been proposed in the
literature resulting in adaptations with different convergence properties. In
this paper we present a new adaptation mechanism that builds on compressive
sensing algorithms, resulting in a reduced polynomial chaos approximation with
optimal sparsity. The developed adaptation algorithm consists of a two-step
optimization procedure that computes the optimal coefficients and the input
projection matrix of a low dimensional chaos expansion with respect to an
optimally rotated basis. We demonstrate the attractive features of our
algorithm through several numerical examples including the application on
Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) calculations of turbulent combustion in a HIFiRE
scramjet engine.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Computational Physic
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