Stochastic Stability Analysis of Discrete Time System Using Lyapunov Measure

In this paper, we study the stability problem of a stochastic, nonlinear, discrete-time system. We introduce a linear transfer operator-based Lyapunov measure as a new tool for stability verification of stochastic systems. Weaker set-theoretic notion of almost everywhere stochastic stability is introduced and verified, using Lyapunov measure-based stochastic stability theorems. Furthermore, connection between Lyapunov functions, a popular tool for stochastic stability verification, and Lyapunov measures is established. Using the duality property between the linear transfer Perron-Frobenius and Koopman operators, we show the Lyapunov measure and Lyapunov function used for the verification of stochastic stability are dual to each other. Set-oriented numerical methods are proposed for the finite dimensional approximation of the Perron-Frobenius operator; hence, Lyapunov measure is proposed. Stability results in finite dimensional approximation space are also presented. Finite dimensional approximation is shown to introduce further weaker notion of stability referred to as coarse stochastic stability. The results in this paper extend our earlier work on the use of Lyapunov measures for almost everywhere stability verification of deterministic dynamical systems ("Lyapunov Measure for Almost Everywhere Stability", {\it IEEE Trans. on Automatic Control}, Vol. 53, No. 1, Feb. 2008).Comment: Proceedings of American Control Conference, Chicago IL, 201

Data-driven and Model-based Verification: a Bayesian Identification Approach

This work develops a measurement-driven and model-based formal verification approach, applicable to systems with partly unknown dynamics. We provide a principled method, grounded on reachability analysis and on Bayesian inference, to compute the confidence that a physical system driven by external inputs and accessed under noisy measurements, verifies a temporal logic property. A case study is discussed, where we investigate the bounded- and unbounded-time safety of a partly unknown linear time invariant system

A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?

Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that provides a simple 6-parameter representation of ensemble forecasting systems and the corresponding observations. The framework is probabilistic, and thus allows for quantifying uncertainty in predictability measures such as correlation skill and signal-to-noise ratios. It also provides a natural way to produce recalibrated probabilistic predictions from uncalibrated ensembles forecasts. The framework is used to address important questions concerning the skill of winter hindcasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation for 1992-2011 issued by the Met Office GloSea5 climate prediction system. Although there is much uncertainty in the correlation between ensemble mean and observations, there is strong evidence of skill: the 95% credible interval of the correlation coefficient of [0.19,0.68] does not overlap zero. There is also strong evidence that the forecasts are not exchangeable with the observations: With over 99% certainty, the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasts is smaller than the signal-to-noise ratio of the observations, which suggests that raw forecasts should not be taken as representative scenarios of the observations. Forecast recalibration is thus required, which can be coherently addressed within the proposed framework.Comment: 36 pages, 10 figure

Simulator Semantics for System Level Formal Verification

Many simulation based Bounded Model Checking approaches to System Level Formal Verification (SLFV) have been devised. Typically such approaches exploit the capability of simulators to save computation time by saving and restoring the state of the system under simulation. However, even though such approaches aim to (bounded) formal verification, as a matter of fact, the simulator behaviour is not formally modelled and the proof of correctness of the proposed approaches basically relies on the intuitive notion of simulator behaviour. This gap makes it hard to check if the optimisations introduced to speed up the simulation do not actually omit checking relevant behaviours of the system under verification. The aim of this paper is to fill the above gap by presenting a formal semantics for simulators.Comment: In Proceedings GandALF 2015, arXiv:1509.0685

Log-normal distribution based EMOS models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting

Ensembles of forecasts are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather forecasting models with different initial conditions and typically employed to account for forecast uncertainties. However, biases and dispersion errors often occur in forecast ensembles, they are usually under-dispersive and uncalibrated and require statistical post-processing. We present an Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) method for calibration of wind speed forecasts based on the log-normal (LN) distribution, and we also show a regime-switching extension of the model which combines the previously studied truncated normal (TN) distribution with the LN. Both presented models are applied to wind speed forecasts of the eight-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble, of the fifty-member ECMWF ensemble and of the eleven-member ALADIN-HUNEPS ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, and their predictive performances are compared to those of the TN and general extreme value (GEV) distribution based EMOS methods and to the TN-GEV mixture model. The results indicate improved calibration of probabilistic and accuracy of point forecasts in comparison to the raw ensemble and to climatological forecasts. Further, the TN-LN mixture model outperforms the traditional TN method and its predictive performance is able to keep up with the models utilizing the GEV distribution without assigning mass to negative values.Comment: 24 pages, 10 figure