Statistical Investigation of Road and Railway Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety

Transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat) in the United States (U.S.) constituted 22.8% of the total tonnage transported in 2012 with an estimated value of more than 2.3 billion dollars. As such, hazmat transportation is a significant economic activity in the U.S. However, hazmat transportation exposes people and environment to the infrequent but potentially severe consequences of incidents resulting in hazmat release. Trucks and trains carried 63.7% of the hazmat in the U.S. in 2012 and are the major foci of this dissertation. The main research objectives were 1) identification and quantification of the effects of different factors on occurrence and consequences of hazmat-related incidents, towards identifying effective policies and countermeasures for improving safety and; 2) quantifying components of risk of hazmat transportation for costs prediction, planning purposes, or short-term decision-making. A comprehensive review of literature, study framework, and available data led to identification of six foci for this dissertation: 1) estimation of hazmat release statistical models for railroad incidents; 2) estimation of rollover and hazmat release statistical models for Cargo Tank Truck (CTT) crashes; 3) analyzing hazmat-involved crashes at highway-rail grade crossings (HRGCs); 4) model-based and non-model-based methods for classifying hazmat release from trains and CTTs; 5) estimation of macroscopic-level statistical models for frequency and severity of rail-based crude oil release incidents; and 6) estimation of statistical models for types and consequences of rail-based crude oil release incidents. Some of the findings of this research include: train derailments increased hazmat release probability more than other incident types; non-collision CTT crashes were more likely to result in rollovers, while rolling over increased the likelihood of hazmat release; at HRGCs, flashing signal lights were associated with lower hazmat release probability from trucks; increase in volume and distance of crude oil shipped from one state to another led to greater frequency and severity of incidents between the two states; and in rail-based crude oil release incidents, non-accident releases were associated with higher probability of gas dispersion, and lower probability of fire and explosion. Based on the results, recommendations regarding policies and countermeasures for improving safety are provided. Advisor: Aemal Khatta

Analysis of the risks related to the logistics of the Hazardous Materials

Today, the number of industrial enterprises producing, using, storing and transporting hazardous materials is constantly increasing worldwide. This growth is linked to the progressive demand in various sectors, which makes our world riskier because of the nature and diversity of the dangerous events that may occur. The risks incurred by the hazardous materials transport activity, in case of the occurrence of an incident that may occur and have serious consequences for persons, the environment, property, a fire as an example accompanied by a release of toxic smoke, pollution of the soil and / or water, it can lead in case of non-control of the fire or the reactivity of the goods transported to an explosion. To this purpose, it is essential to protect the health and safety of personnel and to preserve the environment from any deterioration related to the risks incurred by the Transport of Dangerous Goods (TDG) business, which presents important issues for population, state and highly urbanized areas The aim of this thesis is to propose a systemic approach to risk assessment, taking into account in a global way the risks related to hazardous materials throughout the logistics chain (transport & storage). The approach consists of using the modeling and simulation techniques of an accident, to understand the consequences generated in the various scenarios in the event of the occurrence of a hazardous materials accident. This approach will allow the presentation of an industrial safety reasoning method based on actual case studies, rather than a detailed analysis of how to prevent and protect a given hazard. In the process of assessing the technological risks associated with the Transport of Dangerous Goods (TDG), the essential step is the evaluation of the risk intensity when an accidental event occurs, which is to quantify the risks involved. effects or impacts, in order to respond quickly and prioritize relief actions for the protection of the population and the environment. The assessment of the intensity of a technological risk can be carried out using an effects model, capable of estimating the effects induced by the hazardous phenomenon from a quantitative point of view, in order to determine the geographical area of the hazard where the intensity of the risk is deemed too high. In this context, the first issue addressed in this thesis is to assess the level of risk of hazardous goods transport areas for both road and marine modes of transportation, while the second issue of assessing risks in an industrial facility fixed

OPTIMIZATION OF RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION HAZMATS AND REGULAR COMMODITIES

Transportation of dangerous goods has been receiving more attention in the realm of academic and scientific research during the last few decades as countries have been increasingly becoming industrialized throughout the world, thereby making Hazmats an integral part of our life style. However, the number of scholarly articles in this field is not as many as those of other areas in SCM. Considering the low-probability-and-high-consequence (LPHC) essence of transportation of Hazmats, on the one hand, and immense volume of shipments accounting for more than hundred tons in North America and Europe, on the other, we can safely state that the number of scholarly articles and dissertations have not been proportional to the significance of the subject of interest. On this ground, we conducted our research to contribute towards further developing the domain of Hazmats transportation, and sustainable supply chain management (SSCM), in general terms. Transportation of Hazmats, from logistical standpoint, may include all modes of transport via air, marine, road and rail, as well as intermodal transportation systems. Although road shipment is predominant in most of the literature, railway transportation of Hazmats has proven to be a potentially significant means of transporting dangerous goods with respect to both economies of scale and risk of transportation; these factors, have not just given rise to more thoroughly investigation of intermodal transportation of Hazmats using road and rail networks, but has encouraged the competition between rail and road companies which may indeed have some inherent advantages compared to the other medium due to their infrastructural and technological backgrounds. Truck shipment has ostensibly proven to be providing more flexibility; trains, per contra, provide more reliability in terms of transport risk for conveying Hazmats in bulks. In this thesis, in consonance with the aforementioned motivation, we provide an introduction into the hazardous commodities shipment through rail network in the first chapter of the thesis. Providing relevant statistics on the volume of Hazmat goods, number of accidents, rate of incidents, and rate of fatalities and injuries due to the incidents involving Hazmats, will shed light onto the significance of the topic under study. As well, we review the most pertinent articles while putting more emphasis on the state-of-the-art papers, in chapter two. Following the discussion in chapter 3 and looking at the problem from carrier company’s perspective, a mixed integer quadratically constraint problem (MIQCP) is developed which seeks for the minimization of transportation cost under a set of constraints including those associating with Hazmats. Due to the complexity of the problem, the risk function has been piecewise linearized using a set of auxiliary variables, thereby resulting in an MIP problem. Further, considering the interests of both carrier companies and regulatory agencies, which are minimization of cost and risk, respectively, a multiobjective MINLP model is developed, which has been reduced to an MILP through piecewise linearization of the risk term in the objective function. For both single-objective and multiobjective formulations, model variants with bifurcated and nonbifurcated flows have been presented. Then, in chapter 4, we carry out experiments considering two main cases where the first case presents smaller instances of the problem and the second case focuses on a larger instance of the problem. Eventually, in chapter five, we conclude the dissertation with a summary of the overall discussion as well as presenting some comments on avenues of future work

Northern San Francisco Bay Ecological Risk Assessment: Potential Crude by Rail Incident

Oil spill models, ecological risks, response options, and costs were assessed for a discharge of Bakken crude oil into the Northern San Francisco Bay from a train derailment. This assessment was based on the risk of crude by rail derailments into the San Francisco Bay; in 2014, California oil refineries imported over 240 million gallons of Bakken crude oil by rail for processing. A hypothetical scenario was developed from a derailment on the Union Pacific Railroad Bridge and discharging 100,000 gallons of Bakken crude oil into the Northern San Francisco Bay. The oil trajectory impacted the Carquinez Strait, Suisun, San Pablo, and northern Central Bays, totaling 64 square miles of water surface and 11 square miles of shoreline oiled. The fate of the Bakken crude oil will immediately begin to evaporate for approximately 12 hours and disperse into the water column for 5 days. Afterward, the oil will begin to emulsify and 40% of the oil will remain on the surface. Approximately 34 environmentally sensitive sites have a 20% chance or greater of being oiled. Susceptible bird species are predominantly present in fall and winter; plants are more susceptible during periods of growth in the spring and summer. The high dispersion rate threatens fish and benthic organisms. Response methods were analyzed for cost, effectiveness, and additional ecological impacts. Shoreline oiling should be limited and mitigated depending on the incident circumstances: allowing the oil to burn if fire occurred during derailment; or by dispersant application coupled with mechanical recovery, natural recovery, and minimal shoreline cleanup with planting. Cost of response actions range from $233,000 to$4.4 million; total cost including natural resource damages is estimated at $18.4 million. Recommend increasing rail safety standards to prevent further incidents and rail company involvement with oil spill response planning to increase response effectiveness

Releases of hazardous materials and waste from transportation incidents in the US: an analysis to increase environmental resiliency

Excessive amounts of hazardous materials and waste are released into the environment from transportation incidents. The United States federal government has regulations on the movement of hazardous material and waste during transportation, but preventing environmental releases is not a major priority. Multiple external factors influence the release of hazardous material and waste into the environment. Transportation incidents can be prevented by modifying the information collected in emergency reports, adjusting transportation patterns and conditions, and expressing negative environmental impacts, preparing responder efforts to communicate effectively. The components of previous hazardous materials and waste releases emphasize the needed improvements for increasing environmental resiliency through a SWOT analysis, GIS, and descriptive statistical analysis. These interfaces were utilized to focus on the initial stages of the emergency response process, identify frequent locations of hazardous releases from transportation incidents, and highlight the most susceptible environments. It was discovered that agencies’ reporting documentation lacked environmentally conscious sections to reflect the transportation incidents, structural reinforcements and designated routes should be implemented to reduce transportation incidents, and a standardized categorization must be established to communicate the movement of the most commonly released hazardous material and waste. Limiting releases of hazardous materials and wastes will increase environmental resiliency from transportation incidents overall, but requires federal intervention in each stage to decrease susceptibility and vulnerability of hazardous releases and limit the stress anthropogenic behaviors impose on the environment

Marine Oil Spills

Major oil spills attract the attention of the public and the media. This was especially the case after the Deepwater Horizon spill. In recent years, this attention has created a global awareness of the risks of oil spills and the damage they do to the environment. Oil is a necessity in our industrial society, however, and a major component of our lifestyle. This means that the risk of major spills continues as does the interest in spills. The Deepwater Horizon spill began a new series of scientific studies that have greatly increased our understanding of oil spills. This book contains 10 such studies. These studies vary from toxicity studies to social studies of human reaction to spills and risk. Importantly, the book is a sampling of important new topics that have become important after the Deepwater Horizon spill. These new topics include new chemical and tracing techniques, new risk perception techniques, perspectives on human health and spills, and discussion on new fuels. This book makes a significant contribution to the understanding of facets of spills and explores 10 very different facets of oil spills

Circular Economy and Efficient Use of Resources

Previous and current resource use models have led to high levels of pollution, environmental degradation, and depletion of natural resources. The waste policy has a long history and has traditionally focused on more environmentally sustainable waste management. To be efficient in terms of resource use, the principles of the circular economy should change this trend, transforming the economy into a sustainable economy. The new waste regulations introduce new waste management objectives in terms of waste prevention, reuse, recycling, and storage by addressing new processes

Cascading Effects of Fuel Network Interdiction

This thesis develops the Fuel Interdiction and Resulting Cascading Effects (FI&RCE) model. The study details the development and experimental testing of a framework for assessing the interdiction of a refined petroleum production and distribution network. FI&RCE uses a maximum flow mathematical programming formulation that models the transit of fuels from points of importation and refinement through a polyduct distribution network for delivery across a range of end user locations. The automated model accommodates networks of varying size and complexity. FI&RCE allows for parameters and factor settings that enable robust experimentation through implementation in MATLAB 2014 and the commercial solver CPLEX (Version 12.5). Experimental design allows the investigation of interdiction or disruption on supply and network infrastructure locations in order to support the strategic analytical needs of the user. Given a target set, FI&RCE provides measured responses for the resulting fuel availability and a valuation of economic loss. The value of economic loss feeds a Leontief based input-output model that assesses the cascading effects in the studied economy by implementing a mathematical program that optimizes the remaining industrial outputs. FI&RCE demonstrates a framework to investigate the military and cascading effects of a fuel interdiction campaign plan using a realistic case study

Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 1)

In 2014 NATO’s Center of Excellence-Defence Against Terrorism (COE-DAT) launched the inaugural course on “Critical Infrastructure Protection Against Terrorist Attacks.” As this course garnered increased attendance and interest, the core lecturer team felt the need to update the course in critical infrastructure (CI) taking into account the shift from an emphasis on “protection” of CI assets to “security and resiliency.” What was lacking in the fields of academe, emergency management, and the industry practitioner community was a handbook that leveraged the collective subject matter expertise of the core lecturer team, a handbook that could serve to educate government leaders, state and private-sector owners and operators of critical infrastructure, academicians, and policymakers in NATO and partner countries. Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency is the culmination of such an effort, the first major collaborative research project under a Memorandum of Understanding between the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), and NATO COE-DAT. The research project began in October 2020 with a series of four workshops hosted by SSI. The draft chapters for the book were completed in late January 2022. Little did the research team envision the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February this year. The Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, successive missile attacks against Ukraine’s electric generation and distribution facilities, rail transport, and cyberattacks against almost every sector of the country’s critical infrastructure have been on world display. Russian use of its gas supplies as a means of economic warfare against Europe—designed to undermine NATO unity and support for Ukraine—is another timely example of why adversaries, nation-states, and terrorists alike target critical infrastructure. Hence, the need for public-private sector partnerships to secure that infrastructure and build the resiliency to sustain it when attacked. Ukraine also highlights the need for NATO allies to understand where vulnerabilities exist in host nation infrastructure that will undermine collective defense and give more urgency to redressing and mitigating those fissures.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1951/thumbnail.jp

Comprehensive review on risk assessment methodologies for HAZMAT transportation between 1995-2015

Issue related to safety, health and environmental has become major priority to be concerned of in the transportation of hazardous materials (HAZMAT) worldwide. Due to the high risk that entailed in the operation of HAZMAT transportation, many accidents in this industry have been reported which include chemicals spillage, fire and explosion. In order to quantify the degree of hazards and risks of these accidents, various assessment methods have been introduced either by the academia, the industry as well as the authority. The methods present various approaches for the assessment, ranging from a simple to highly complicated ones depending on the purpose of the assessment and the available resources and constraints. To date there is yet any study conducted to review those available methods. This paper intends to present a comprehensive review of the existing methods for hazards and risks assessment of HAZMAT transportation between years 1995-2015 which considers road, marine, railway, air and pipeline system. Based on careful screening of the abundance of methods available, 151 of them were selected – that is those specifically meant for hazards and risks assessment of HAZMAT transportation only. The methods are reviewed in terms of the types of assessment; either qualitative, quantitative or hybrid techniques, as well as their specific application in different mode of transportation. Also, statistical analysis was performed to determine the trend of past publications regarding on the type of journal, year of publication and also financial support received in the context of hazard and risk assessment of HAZMAT transportation