Bayesian Subset Simulation: a kriging-based subset simulation algorithm for the estimation of small probabilities of failure

The estimation of small probabilities of failure from computer simulations is a classical problem in engineering, and the Subset Simulation algorithm proposed by Au & Beck (Prob. Eng. Mech., 2001) has become one of the most popular method to solve it. Subset simulation has been shown to provide significant savings in the number of simulations to achieve a given accuracy of estimation, with respect to many other Monte Carlo approaches. The number of simulations remains still quite high however, and this method can be impractical for applications where an expensive-to-evaluate computer model is involved. We propose a new algorithm, called Bayesian Subset Simulation, that takes the best from the Subset Simulation algorithm and from sequential Bayesian methods based on kriging (also known as Gaussian process modeling). The performance of this new algorithm is illustrated using a test case from the literature. We are able to report promising results. In addition, we provide a numerical study of the statistical properties of the estimator.Comment: 11th International Probabilistic Assessment and Management Conference (PSAM11) and The Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2012), Helsinki : Finland (2012

Effective pattern discovery for text mining

Many data mining techniques have been proposed for mining useful patterns in text documents. However, how to effectively use and update discovered patterns is still an open research issue, especially in the domain of text mining. Since most existing text mining methods adopted term-based approaches, they all suffer from the problems of polysemy and synonymy. Over the years, people have often held the hypothesis that pattern (or phrase) based approaches should perform better than the term-based ones, but many experiments did not support this hypothesis. This paper presents an innovative technique, effective pattern discovery which includes the processes of pattern deploying and pattern evolving, to improve the effectiveness of using and updating discovered patterns for finding relevant and interesting information. Substantial experiments on RCV1 data collection and TREC topics demonstrate that the proposed solution achieves encouraging performance

Parallel data compression

Data compression schemes remove data redundancy in communicated and stored data and increase the effective capacities of communication and storage devices. Parallel algorithms and implementations for textual data compression are surveyed. Related concepts from parallel computation and information theory are briefly discussed. Static and dynamic methods for codeword construction and transmission on various models of parallel computation are described. Included are parallel methods which boost system speed by coding data concurrently, and approaches which employ multiple compression techniques to improve compression ratios. Theoretical and empirical comparisons are reported and areas for future research are suggested

Duration and Interval Hidden Markov Model for Sequential Data Analysis

Analysis of sequential event data has been recognized as one of the essential tools in data modeling and analysis field. In this paper, after the examination of its technical requirements and issues to model complex but practical situation, we propose a new sequential data model, dubbed Duration and Interval Hidden Markov Model (DI-HMM), that efficiently represents "state duration" and "state interval" of data events. This has significant implications to play an important role in representing practical time-series sequential data. This eventually provides an efficient and flexible sequential data retrieval. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed DI-HMM

Discriminative methods for classification of asynchronous imaginary motor tasks from EEG data

In this work, two methods based on statistical models that take into account the temporal changes in the electroencephalographic (EEG) signal are proposed for asynchronous brain-computer interfaces (BCI) based on imaginary motor tasks. Unlike the current approaches to asynchronous BCI systems that make use of windowed versions of the EEG data combined with static classifiers, the methods proposed here are based on discriminative models that allow sequential labeling of data. In particular, the two methods we propose for asynchronous BCI are based on conditional random fields (CRFs) and latent dynamic CRFs (LDCRFs), respectively. We describe how the asynchronous BCI problem can be posed as a classification problem based on CRFs or LDCRFs, by defining appropriate random variables and their relationships. CRF allows modeling the extrinsic dynamics of data, making it possible to model the transitions between classes, which in this context correspond to distinct tasks in an asynchronous BCI system. On the other hand, LDCRF goes beyond this approach by incorporating latent variables that permit modeling the intrinsic structure for each class and at the same time allows modeling extrinsic dynamics. We apply our proposed methods on the publicly available BCI competition III dataset V as well as a data set recorded in our laboratory. Results obtained are compared to the top algorithm in the BCI competition as well as to methods based on hierarchical hidden Markov models (HHMMs), hierarchical hidden CRF (HHCRF), neural networks based on particle swarm optimization (IPSONN) and to a recently proposed approach based on neural networks and fuzzy theory, the S-dFasArt. Our experimental analysis demonstrates the improvements provided by our proposed methods in terms of classification accuracy

Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Gaussian process surrogates for failure detection: a Bayesian experimental design approach

An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify {the probability of} undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian {process} surrogates for failure detection and failure probability estimation. In particular, we consider the situation that the underlying computer models are extremely expensive, and in this setting, determining the sampling points in the state space is of essential importance. We formulate the problem as an optimal experimental design for Bayesian inferences of the limit state (i.e., the failure boundary) and propose an efficient numerical scheme to solve the resulting optimization problem. In particular, the proposed limit-state inference method is capable of determining multiple sampling points at a time, and thus it is well suited for problems where multiple computer simulations can be performed in parallel. The accuracy and performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by both academic and practical examples