Stability analysis and estimate of the region of attraction of a human respiratory model

International audienceIn this paper, we complete the stability analysis of various human respiratory non-linear time delay models introduced in. More precisely, we present a detailed mathematical analysis of the stability of the nonlinear model trivial equilibrium , an estimate of its region of attraction and exponential estimates of the solutions starting in this region. The proposed approach is constructive and it is based on the use of Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals of complete type for time-delay systems with a cross term in the time derivative

Economy-Wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Human Health

We study the economic impacts of climate-change-induced change in human health, viz. cardiovascular and respiratory disorders, diarrhoea, malaria, dengue fever and schistosomiasis. Changes in morbidity and mortality are interpreted as changes in labour productivity and demand for health care, and used to shock the GTAP-E computable general equilibrium model, calibrated for the year 2050. GDP, welfare and investment fall (rise) in regions with net negative (positive) health impacts. Prices, production, and terms of trade show a mixed pattern. Direct cost estimates, common in climate change impact studies, underestimate the true welfare losses.Impacts of climate change, Human health, Computable general equilibrium

An Sveir Model for Assessing Potential Impact of an Imperfect Anti-SARS Vaccine

The control of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), a fatal contagious viral disease that spread to over 32 countries in 2003, was based on quarantine of latently infected individuals and isolation of individuals with clinical symptoms of SARS. Owing to the recent ongoing clinical trials of some candidate anti-SARS vaccines, this study aims to assess, via mathematical modelling, the potential impact of a SARS vaccine, assumed to be imperfect, in curtailing future outbreaks. A relatively simple deterministic model is designed for this purpose. It is shown, using Lyapunov function theory and the theory of compound matrices, that the dynamics of the model are determined by a certain threshold quantity known as the control reproduction number (Rv). If Rv ≤ 1, the disease will be eliminated from the community; whereas an epidemic occurs if Rv \u3e 1. This study further shows that an imperfect SARS vaccine with infection-blocking efficacy is always beneficial in reducing disease spread within the community, although its overall impact increases with increasing efficacy and coverage. In particular, it is shown that the fraction of individuals vaccinated at steady-state and vaccine efficacy play equal roles in reducing disease burden, and the vaccine must have efficacy of at least 75% to lead to effective control of SARS (assuming R0 = 4). Numerical simulations are used to explore the severity of outbreaks when Rv \u3e 1

Mechanisms explaining transitions between tonic and phasic firing in neuronal populations as predicted by a low dimensional firing rate model

Several firing patterns experimentally observed in neural populations have been successfully correlated to animal behavior. Population bursting, hereby regarded as a period of high firing rate followed by a period of quiescence, is typically observed in groups of neurons during behavior. Biophysical membrane-potential models of single cell bursting involve at least three equations. Extending such models to study the collective behavior of neural populations involves thousands of equations and can be very expensive computationally. For this reason, low dimensional population models that capture biophysical aspects of networks are needed. \noindent The present paper uses a firing-rate model to study mechanisms that trigger and stop transitions between tonic and phasic population firing. These mechanisms are captured through a two-dimensional system, which can potentially be extended to include interactions between different areas of the nervous system with a small number of equations. The typical behavior of midbrain dopaminergic neurons in the rodent is used as an example to illustrate and interpret our results. \noindent The model presented here can be used as a building block to study interactions between networks of neurons. This theoretical approach may help contextualize and understand the factors involved in regulating burst firing in populations and how it may modulate distinct aspects of behavior.Comment: 25 pages (including references and appendices); 12 figures uploaded as separate file

Urban Environmental Health and Sensitive Populations: How Much are the Italians Willing to Pay to Reduce Their Risks?

We use contingent valuation to elicit WTP for a reduction in the risk of dying for cardiovascular and respiratory causes, the most important causes of premature mortality associated with heat wave and air pollution, among the Italian public. The purpose of this study is three-fold. First, we obtain WTP and VSL figures that can be applied when estimating the benefits of heat advisories, other policies that reduce the mortality effects of extreme heat, and environmental policies that reduce the risk of dying for cardiovascular and respiratory causes. Second, our experimental study design allows us to examine the sensitivity of WTP to the size of the risk reduction. Third, we examine whether the WTP of populations that are especially sensitive to extreme heat and air pollution—such as the elderly, those in compromised health, and those living alone and/or physically impaired—is different from that of other individuals. We find that WTP, and hence the VSL, depends on the risk reduction, respondent age (via the baseline risk), and respondent health status. WTP increases with the size of the risk reduction, but is not strictly proportional to it. All else the same, older individuals are willing to pay less for a given risk reduction than younger individuals of comparable characteristics. Poor health, however, tends to raise WTP, so that the appropriate VSL of elderly individuals in poor health may be quite large. Our results support the notion that the VSL is “individuated.”Contingent valuation, Willingness to Pay, Mortality risk reductions, Value of a Statistical life, Scope test, Cardiovascular and respiratory risks, Heat waves, Heat advisories, Adaptation to climate change, Air pollution, Premature mortality

Dynamic phenomena arising from an extended Core Group model

In order to obtain a reasonably accurate model for the spread of a particular infectious disease through a population, it may be necessary for this model to possess some degree of structural complexity. Many such models have, in recent years, been found to exhibit a phenomenon known as backward bifurcation, which generally implies the existence of two subcritical endemic equilibria. It is often possible to refine these models yet further, and we investigate here the influence such a refinement may have on the dynamic behaviour of a system in the region of the parameter space near R0 = 1. We consider a natural extension to a so-called core group model for the spread of a sexually transmitted disease, arguing that this may in fact give rise to a more realistic model. From the deterministic viewpoint we study the possible shapes of the resulting bifurcation diagrams and the associated stability patterns. Stochastic versions of both the original and the extended models are also developed so that the probability of extinction and time to extinction may be examined, allowing us to gain further insights into the complex system dynamics near R0 = 1. A number of interesting phenomena are observed, for which heuristic explanations are provided

Physics of brain dynamics: Fokker-Planck analysis reveals changes in EEG delta-theta interactions in anaesthesia

We use drift and diffusion coefficients to reveal interactions between different oscillatory processes underlying a complex signal and apply the method to EEG delta and theta frequencies in the brain. By analysis of data recorded from rats during anaesthesia, we consider the stability and basins of attraction of fixed points in the phase portrait of the deterministic part of the retrieved stochastic process. We show that different classes of dynamics are associated with deep and light anaesthesia, and we demonstrate that the predominant directionality of the interaction is such that theta drives delt

First Principles Modeling of Nonlinear Incidence Rates in Seasonal Epidemics

In this paper we used a general stochastic processes framework to derive from first principles the incidence rate function that characterizes epidemic models. We investigate a particular case, the Liu-Hethcote-van den Driessche's (LHD) incidence rate function, which results from modeling the number of successful transmission encounters as a pure birth process. This derivation also takes into account heterogeneity in the population with regard to the per individual transmission probability. We adjusted a deterministic SIRS model with both the classical and the LHD incidence rate functions to time series of the number of children infected with syncytial respiratory virus in Banjul, Gambia and Turku, Finland. We also adjusted a deterministic SEIR model with both incidence rate functions to the famous measles data sets from the UK cities of London and Birmingham. Two lines of evidence supported our conclusion that the model with the LHD incidence rate may very well be a better description of the seasonal epidemic processes studied here. First, our model was repeatedly selected as best according to two different information criteria and two different likelihood formulations. The second line of evidence is qualitative in nature: contrary to what the SIRS model with classical incidence rate predicts, the solution of the deterministic SIRS model with LHD incidence rate will reach either the disease free equilibrium or the endemic equilibrium depending on the initial conditions. These findings along with computer intensive simulations of the models' Poincaré map with environmental stochasticity contributed to attain a clear separation of the roles of the environmental forcing and the mechanics of the disease transmission in shaping seasonal epidemics dynamics