Probabilistic Programming Concepts

A multitude of different probabilistic programming languages exists today, all extending a traditional programming language with primitives to support modeling of complex, structured probability distributions. Each of these languages employs its own probabilistic primitives, and comes with a particular syntax, semantics and inference procedure. This makes it hard to understand the underlying programming concepts and appreciate the differences between the different languages. To obtain a better understanding of probabilistic programming, we identify a number of core programming concepts underlying the primitives used by various probabilistic languages, discuss the execution mechanisms that they require and use these to position state-of-the-art probabilistic languages and their implementation. While doing so, we focus on probabilistic extensions of logic programming languages such as Prolog, which have been developed since more than 20 years

Learning Bayesian network equivalence classes using ant colony optimisation

Bayesian networks have become an indispensable tool in the modelling of uncertain knowledge. Conceptually, they consist of two parts: a directed acyclic graph called the structure, and conditional probability distributions attached to each node known as the parameters. As a result of their expressiveness, understandability and rigorous mathematical basis, Bayesian networks have become one of the first methods investigated, when faced with an uncertain problem domain. However, a recurring problem persists in specifying a Bayesian network. Both the structure and parameters can be difficult for experts to conceive, especially if their knowledge is tacit.To counteract these problems, research has been ongoing, on learning both the structure and parameters of Bayesian networks from data. Whilst there are simple methods for learning the parameters, learning the structure has proved harder. Part ofthis stems from the NP-hardness of the problem and the super-exponential space of possible structures. To help solve this task, this thesis seeks to employ a relatively new technique, that has had much success in tackling NP-hard problems. This technique is called ant colony optimisation. Ant colony optimisation is a metaheuristic based on the behaviour of ants acting together in a colony. It uses the stochastic activity of artificial ants to find good solutions to combinatorial optimisation problems. In the current work, this method is applied to the problem of searching through the space of equivalence classes of Bayesian networks, in order to find a good match against a set of data. The system uses operators that evaluate potential modifications to a current state. Each of the modifications is scored and the results used to inform the search. In order to facilitate these steps, other techniques are also devised, to speed up the learning process. The techniques includeThe techniques are tested by sampling data from gold standard networks and learning structures from this sampled data. These structures are analysed using various goodnessof-fit measures to see how well the algorithms perform. The measures include structural similarity metrics and Bayesian scoring metrics. The results are compared in depth against systems that also use ant colony optimisation and other methods, including evolutionary programming and greedy heuristics. Also, comparisons are made to well known state-of-the-art algorithms and a study performed on a real-life data set. The results show favourable performance compared to the other methods and on modelling the real-life data

Lifted graphical models: a survey

Lifted graphical models provide a language for expressing dependencies between different types of entities, their attributes, and their diverse relations, as well as techniques for probabilistic reasoning in such multi-relational domains. In this survey, we review a general form for a lifted graphical model, a par-factor graph, and show how a number of existing statistical relational representations map to this formalism. We discuss inference algorithms, including lifted inference algorithms, that efficiently compute the answers to probabilistic queries over such models. We also review work in learning lifted graphical models from data. There is a growing need for statistical relational models (whether they go by that name or another), as we are inundated with data which is a mix of structured and unstructured, with entities and relations extracted in a noisy manner from text, and with the need to reason effectively with this data. We hope that this synthesis of ideas from many different research groups will provide an accessible starting point for new researchers in this expanding field

ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

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Probabilistic (logic) programming concepts

A multitude of different probabilistic programming languages exists today, all extending a traditional programming language with primitives to support modeling of complex, structured probability distributions. Each of these languages employs its own probabilistic primitives, and comes with a particular syntax, semantics and inference procedure. This makes it hard to understand the underlying programming concepts and appreciate the differences between the different languages. To obtain a better understanding of probabilistic programming, we identify a number of core programming concepts underlying the primitives used by various probabilistic languages, discuss the execution mechanisms that they require and use these to position and survey state-of-the-art probabilistic languages and their implementation. While doing so, we focus on probabilistic extensions of logic programming languages such as Prolog, which have been considered for over 20 years

Provenance in Collaborative Data Sharing

This dissertation focuses on recording, maintaining and exploiting provenance information in Collaborative Data Sharing Systems (CDSS). These are systems that support data sharing across loosely-coupled, heterogeneous collections of relational databases related by declarative schema mappings. A fundamental challenge in a CDSS is to support the capability of update exchange --- which publishes a participant\u27s updates and then translates others\u27 updates to the participant\u27s local schema and imports them --- while tolerating disagreement between them and recording the provenance of exchanged data, i.e., information about the sources and mappings involved in their propagation. This provenance information can be useful during update exchange, e.g., to evaluate provenance-based trust policies. It can also be exploited after update exchange, to answer a variety of user queries, about the quality, uncertainty or authority of the data, for applications such as trust assessment, ranking for keyword search over databases, or query answering in probabilistic databases. To address these challenges, in this dissertation we develop a novel model of provenance graphs that is informative enough to satisfy the needs of CDSS users and captures the semantics of query answering on various forms of annotated relations. We extend techniques from data integration, data exchange, incremental view maintenance and view update to define the formal semantics of unidirectional and bidirectional update exchange. We develop algorithms to perform update exchange incrementally while maintaining provenance information. We present strategies for implementing our techniques over an RDBMS and experimentally demonstrate their viability in the Orchestra prototype system. We define ProQL, a query language for provenance graphs that can be used by CDSS users to combine data querying with provenance testing as well as to compute annotations for their data, based on their provenance, that are useful for a variety of applications. Finally, we develop a prototype implementation ProQL over an RDBMS and indexing techniques to speed up provenance querying, evaluate experimentally the performance of provenance querying and the benefits of our indexing techniques