Technology Forecasting for Wireless Communication

Wireless communications technologies have undergone rapid changes over the last 30 years from analog approaches to digital-based systems. These technologies have improved on many fronts including bandwidth, range, and power requirements. Development of new telecommunications technologies is critical. It requires many years of efforts. In order to be competitive, it is critical to establish a roadmap of future technologies. This paper presents a framework to characterize, assess and forecast the wireless communication technologies. A DEA-based methodology was used for predicting the state-of-the-art in future wireless communications technologies

Towards 5G: scenario-based assessment of the future supply and demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure

Moving from 4G LTE to 5G is an archetypal example of technological change. Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) who fail to adapt will likely lose market share. Hitherto, qualitative frameworks have been put forward to aid with business model adaptation for MNOs facing on the one hand increasing traffic growth, while on the other declining revenues. In this analysis, we provide a complementary scenario-based assessment of 5G infrastructure strategies in relation to mobile traffic growth. Developing and applying an open-source modelling framework, we quantify the uncertainty associated with future demand and supply for a hypothetical MNO, using Britain as a case study example. We find that over 90% of baseline data growth between 2016 and 2030 is driven by technological change, rather than demographics. To meet this demand, spectrum strategies require the least amount of capital expenditure and can meet baseline growth until approximately 2025, after which new spectrum bands will be required. Alternatively, small cell deployments provide significant capacity but at considerable cost, and hence are likely only in the densest locations, unless MNOs can boost revenues by capturing value from the Internet of Things (IoT), Smart Cities or other technological developments dependent on digital connectivity.Edward Oughton, Zoraida Frias, Tom Russell and David Cleevely would like to express their gratitude to the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council for funding via grant EP/N017064/1: Multi-scale InfraSTRucture systems AnaLytics (Mistral). Zoraida Frias would like to thank the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid for their support through the mobility program scholarship

Enhancing Missing Data Imputation of Non-stationary Signals with Harmonic Decomposition

Dealing with time series with missing values, including those afflicted by low quality or over-saturation, presents a significant signal processing challenge. The task of recovering these missing values, known as imputation, has led to the development of several algorithms. However, we have observed that the efficacy of these algorithms tends to diminish when the time series exhibit non-stationary oscillatory behavior. In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm, coined Harmonic Level Interpolation (HaLI), which enhances the performance of existing imputation algorithms for oscillatory time series. After running any chosen imputation algorithm, HaLI leverages the harmonic decomposition based on the adaptive nonharmonic model of the initial imputation to improve the imputation accuracy for oscillatory time series. Experimental assessments conducted on synthetic and real signals consistently highlight that HaLI enhances the performance of existing imputation algorithms. The algorithm is made publicly available as a readily employable Matlab code for other researchers to use

A Capacity Broker Architecture and Framework for Multi-tenant support in LTE-A Networks

Resource allocation in multi-operator scenarios requires an estimate of the tenants' traffic needs. This is necessary in the scenario where a Mobile Network Operator (MNO) owns the Radio Access Network (RAN) and many Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) act as resellers of their host network's capacity under their own brands, to their own customers. In such scenarios, the forecasted MVNO traffic is the basis for providing resources suitable with the corresponding MVNOs demand. To that end, the dynamic provision of resources among MVNOs should be performed in flexible, short-term time scales. In this paper, we effectively address this issue by integrating the capacity broker into the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) network management architecture using the minimum set of enhancements. In addition, to fully exploit its capabilities, we propose the Multi-tenant Slicing (MuSli) of capacity algorithm, to allocate resources towards MVNOs in coarse time scales. MuSli considers the estimated capacity and the impact of the traffic type (i.e., guaranteed QoS and Best-Effort) in each MVNO, to provide better utilization of the host network's capacity. Our results highlight the gains in the number of served requests without compromising their service quality

Empirical Study of Effect of Deregulation, Competition, and Contents on Mobile Phone Diffusion: Case of the Japanese 3G Market

The Japanese mobile market has recently shown a remarkable growth in the last decade, with more than 106.2 million 3G (3rd Generation, or W-CDMA) subscribers and 4.4 million 2G (2nd Generation, or PDC) as of December 2009. This paper attempts to analyze factors promoting Japanese mobile phone, focusing on 3G technologies. Factors promoting it can be summarized as follows: (1) deregulations by government, such as MNP (Mobile Number Portability) and collocation; (2) competition among carriers, such as introduction of new charge plans; (3) technological development, such as connection speed; and (4) contents and applications. This paper utilizes the panel data of three main carriers of the mobile phone market, namely, NTTdocomo, au (KDDI), and Softbank. As for a model for estimation, we apply that of Madden and Coble-Neal [2004] which studied the relationship between fixed and mobile phone with the panel data by the dynamic random effects estimation. Dynamic models are based not only on the assumption such that carriers do not instantaneously adjust to satisfy their long-term demand but also on network externalities. Besides, the paper applies a dynamic panel data model in order to take care of the endogeneity problem. This paper deals with this problem rigorously by applying Arellano-Bond estimator (Arellano and Bond [1991] and Arellano and Bover [1995]) which estimates exogeneous or predetermined variables, in addition to instrumental variables, using the two-step generalized method of moments (GMM). Based on this framework, this paper identifies service innovations such as entertainment, flat rate charges are found significant for the 3G mobile phone diffusion. --dynamic panel data analysis,competition policy,network externalities,endogeneity,m-commerce,e-entertainment,MNP

Estimasi Kebutuhan Spektrum Untuk Memenuhi Target Rencana Pita Lebar Indonesia Di Wilayah Perkotaan [the Estimation of Spectrum Requirements to Meet the Target of Indonesia Broadband Plan in Urban Area]

Pemerintah Indonesia telah mengesahkan Rencana Pita Lebar Indonesia menjelang akhir tahun 2014. Dokumen tersebut berisi panduan dan arah pembangunan pita lebar nasional dan berisi berisi target-target pencapaian berkelanjutan antara tahun 2014-2019. Terkait target capaian pita lebar nirkabel, ketersediaan dan kecukupan spektrum frekuensi merupakan salah satu hal yang sangat penting. Studi ini dilakukan untuk mengestimasi kebutuhan spektrum frekuensi dalam rangka memenuhi target capaian Rencana Pita Lebar Indonesia khususnya layanan pita lebar nirkabel di wilayah perkotaan. DKI Jakarta dipilih sebagai sampel wilayah perkotaan. Analisis dilakukan dengan menghitung luas cakupan BTS, mengestimasi jumlah potensi pengguna, mengestimasi kebutuhan spektrum dan membandingkannya dengan spektrum yang sudah dialokasikan untuk mendapatkan jumlah kekurangan spektrum. 3G dan 4G diasumsikan sebagai teknologi yang digunakan untuk memenuhi sasaran pita lebar bergerak. Hasil analisis menunjukkan pada rentang tahun 2016-2019 akan terjadi kekurangan spektrum di wilayah perkotaan sebesar 2x234,5 MHz sampai dengan 2x240,5MHz (untuk mode FDD) atau sebesar 313 MHz sampai dengan 321 MHz (untuk mode TDD). Spektrum frekuensi merupakan sumber daya yang reusable, dengan mengasumsikan kebutuhan spektrum di perdesaan lebih rendah dibanding kebutuhan di perkotaan, maka estimasi ini dapat pula digunakan untuk menggambarkan kebutuhan spektrum di Indonesia secara keseluruhan.*****Indonesian government has issued Indonesia Broadband Plan (IBP) at the end of 2014. IBP provides guidance and direction for the development of national broadband and contains targets in the period of 2014 to 2019. Relating to wireless broadband target, the availability and the adequacy of spectrum is very important. This study was conducted to estimate the spectrum requirements to meet the Indonesia broadband plan target especially the target of mobile broadband in urban area. DKI Jakarta was taken as sample of urban area. Analysis was done by calculating the coverage of BTSs, estimating the number of potential users, estimating the required spectrum and comparing it with the allocated spectrum to obtain the number of spectrum shortage. 3G and 4G were assumed as technologies used to meet mobile broadband target. The result showed that there will be a shortage of spectrum in the period of 2016 to 2019 approximately 2x234.5 to 2x240.5MHz(for FDD mode) or 313 MHz to 321 MHz (for TDD mode). Spectrum is reusable resource and by assuming that spectrum requirements in rural area is lower than that in urban, this estimastion can also be used to portray spectrum requirements in Indonesia as a whole

Impact of the propagation model on the capacity in small‐cell networks: comparison between the UHF/SHF and the millimetre wavebands

This work shows how both frequency and the election of path loss model affect estimated spectral efficiency. Six different frequency bands are considered, ranging from 2.6 GHz in the Ultra High Frequency (UHF) band to 73 GHz in the millimetre wave bands (mmWaves), using both single-slope and two-slope path-loss models. We start by comparing four ur ban path loss models for UHF: the urban/vehicular and pedestrian test environment from the ITU-R M. 1255 Report, which includes the two-slope urban micro line-of-sight (LoS) and NLoS, from the ITU-R 2135 Report. Then, we consider mmWaves taking into con26 sideration the modified Friis propagation model, followed by an analysis of the through put for the 2.6, 3.5, 28, 38, 60 and 73 GHz frequency bands. We have found that the signal to-interference-plus-noise ratio, as estimated with the more realistic two-slope model, is lower for devices that are within the break-point of the transmitter, which is a small dis tance in the UHF/SHF band. As a result, spectral efficiency is higher with mmWaves than with UHF/SHF spectrum when cell radius is under 40 meters but not when cells are larger. Consequently, mmWaves spectrum will be more valuable as cells get small. We also find that capacity as estimated with the two-slope model is considerably smaller than one would obtain with the one-slope model when cells are small but there is little difference in the models when cells are larger. Thus, as cells get smaller, the use of one slope models may underestimate the number of cells that must be deployed.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio