On the Usefulness of the Constrained Planning Problem in a Model of Money

In this paper, we study a decentralized monetary economy with a specified set of markets, rules of trade, an equilibrium concept, and a restricted set of policies and derive a set of equilibrium (monetary) allocations. Next we set up a simpler constrained planning problem in which we restrict the planner to choose from a set that contains the set of equilibrium allocations in the decentralized economy. If there is a government policy that allows the decentralized economy to achieve the constrained planner's allocation, then it is the optimal policy choice. To illustrate the power of such analyses, we solve such planning problems in three monetary environments with limited communication. The upshot is that solving constrained planning problems is an extremely "efficient" (easy and quick) way of deriving optimal policies for the corresponding decentralized economies.planning problems; overlapping generations; random relocation model

Melding the Data-Decisions Pipeline: Decision-Focused Learning for Combinatorial Optimization

Creating impact in real-world settings requires artificial intelligence techniques to span the full pipeline from data, to predictive models, to decisions. These components are typically approached separately: a machine learning model is first trained via a measure of predictive accuracy, and then its predictions are used as input into an optimization algorithm which produces a decision. However, the loss function used to train the model may easily be misaligned with the end goal, which is to make the best decisions possible. Hand-tuning the loss function to align with optimization is a difficult and error-prone process (which is often skipped entirely). We focus on combinatorial optimization problems and introduce a general framework for decision-focused learning, where the machine learning model is directly trained in conjunction with the optimization algorithm to produce high-quality decisions. Technically, our contribution is a means of integrating common classes of discrete optimization problems into deep learning or other predictive models, which are typically trained via gradient descent. The main idea is to use a continuous relaxation of the discrete problem to propagate gradients through the optimization procedure. We instantiate this framework for two broad classes of combinatorial problems: linear programs and submodular maximization. Experimental results across a variety of domains show that decision-focused learning often leads to improved optimization performance compared to traditional methods. We find that standard measures of accuracy are not a reliable proxy for a predictive model's utility in optimization, and our method's ability to specify the true goal as the model's training objective yields substantial dividends across a range of decision problems.Comment: Full version of paper accepted at AAAI 201

Thompson sampling guided stochastic searching on the line for deceptive environments with applications to root-finding problems

publishedVersio

Towards Thompson Sampling for Complex Bayesian Reasoning

Paper III, IV, and VI are not available as a part of the dissertation due to the copyright.Thompson Sampling (TS) is a state-of-art algorithm for bandit problems set in a Bayesian framework. Both the theoretical foundation and the empirical efficiency of TS is wellexplored for plain bandit problems. However, the Bayesian underpinning of TS means that TS could potentially be applied to other, more complex, problems as well, beyond the bandit problem, if suitable Bayesian structures can be found. The objective of this thesis is the development and analysis of TS-based schemes for more complex optimization problems, founded on Bayesian reasoning. We address several complex optimization problems where the previous state-of-art relies on a relatively myopic perspective on the problem. These includes stochastic searching on the line, the Goore game, the knapsack problem, travel time estimation, and equipartitioning. Instead of employing Bayesian reasoning to obtain a solution, they rely on carefully engineered rules. In all brevity, we recast each of these optimization problems in a Bayesian framework, introducing dedicated TS based solution schemes. For all of the addressed problems, the results show that besides being more effective, the TS based approaches we introduce are also capable of solving more adverse versions of the problems, such as dealing with stochastic liars.publishedVersio

Models and algorithms for multi-agent search problems

The problem of searching for objects of interest occurs in important applications ranging from rescue, security, transportation, to medicine. With the increasing use of autonomous vehicles as search platforms, there is a need for fast algorithms that can generate search plans for multiple agents in response to new information. In this dissertation, we develop new techniques for automated generation of search plans for different classes of search problems. First, we study the problem of searching for a stationary object in a discrete search space with multiple agents where each agent can access only a subset of the search space. In these problems, agents can fail to detect an object when inspecting a location. We show that when the probabilities of detection only depend on the locations, this problem can be reformulated as a minimum cost network optimization problem, and develop a fast specialized algorithm for the solution. We prove that our algorithm finds the optimal solution in finite time, and has worst-case computation performance that is faster than general minimum cost flow algorithms. We then generalize it to the case where the probabilities of detection depend on the agents and the locations, and propose a greedy algorithm that is 1/2-approximate. Second, we study the problem of searching for a moving object in a discrete search space with multiple agents where each agent can access only a subset of a discrete search space at any time and agents can fail to detect objects when searching a location at a given time. We provide necessary conditions for an optimal search plan, extending prior results in search theory. For the case where the probabilities of detection depend on the locations and the time periods, we develop a forward-backward iterative algorithm based on coordinate descent techniques to obtain solutions. To avoid local optimum, we derive a convex relaxation of the dynamic search problem and show this can be solved optimally using coordinate descent techniques. The solutions of the relaxed problem are used to provide random starting conditions for the iterative algorithm. We also address the problem where the probabilities of detection depend on the agents as well as the locations and the time periods, and show that a greedy-style algorithm is 1/2-approximate. Third, we study problems when multiple objects of interest being searched are physically scattered among locations on a graph and the agents are subject to motion constraints captured by the graph edges as well as budget constraints. We model such problem as an orienteering problem, when searching with a single agent, or a team orienteering problem, when searching with multiple agents. We develop novel real-time efficient algorithms for both problems. Fourth, we investigate classes of continuous-region multi-agent adaptive search problems as stochastic control problems with imperfect information. We allow the agent measurement errors to be either correlated or independent across agents. The structure of these problems, with objectives related to information entropy, allows for a complete characterization of the optimal strategies and the optimal cost. We derive a lower bound on the performance of the minimum mean-square error estimator, and provide upper bounds on the estimation error for special cases. For agents with independent errors, we show that the optimal sensing strategies can be obtained in terms of the solution of decoupled scalar convex optimization problems, followed by a joint region selection procedure. We further consider search of multiple objects and provide an explicit construction for adaptively determining the sensing actions