Effective forecasting for supply-chain planning: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement

Demand forecasting is a crucial aspect of the planning process in supply-chain companies. The most common approach to forecasting demand in these companies involves the use of a simple univariate statistical method to produce a forecast and the subsequent judgmental adjustment of this by the company's demand planners to take into account market intelligence relating to any exceptional circumstances expected over the planning horizon. Based on four company case studies, which included collecting more than 12,000 forecasts and outcomes, this paper examines: i) the extent to which the judgmental adjustments led to improvements in accuracy, ii) the extent to which the adjustments were biased and inefficient, iii) the circumstances where adjustments were detrimental or beneficial, and iv) methods that could lead to greater levels of accuracy. It was found that the judgmentally adjusted forecasts were both biased and inefficient. In particular, market intelligence that was expected to have a positive impact on demand was used far less effectively than intelligence suggesting a negative impact. The paper goes on to propose a set of improvements that could be applied to the forecasting processes in the companies and to the forecasting software that is used in these processes

A method to support SMEs to optimize their manufacturing operations

In the last decades the gap between enterprise systems, like Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), and process control systems has been filled with the development of software systems, commonly referred to as Manufacturing Operations Management (MOM). The ISA-95 standard provides a detailed functional description of this intermediate layer in the CIM pyramid. This standard supports manufacturing companies, system integrators and software vendors by using the same terminology in their communication for integrating their enterprise and control systems. Most of the time, these software systems address bigger companies which are convinced of the strategic advantages for their MOM projects: reduction of risks, costs and errors. This paper introduces an analysis and justification method that reduces the barriers to adoption of MOM systems for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). By applying the method an SME gets an idea of the possible improvements for the materials and information flow required for the production of goods or services

A Longitudinal Study of Identifying and Paying Down Architectural Debt

Architectural debt is a form of technical debt that derives from the gap between the architectural design of the system as it "should be" compared to "as it is". We measured architecture debt in two ways: 1) in terms of system-wide coupling measures, and 2) in terms of the number and severity of architectural flaws. In recent work it was shown that the amount of architectural debt has a huge impact on software maintainability and evolution. Consequently, detecting and reducing the debt is expected to make software more amenable to change. This paper reports on a longitudinal study of a healthcare communications product created by Brightsquid Secure Communications Corp. This start-up company is facing the typical trade-off problem of desiring responsiveness to change requests, but wanting to avoid the ever-increasing effort that the accumulation of quick-and-dirty changes eventually incurs. In the first stage of the study, we analyzed the status of the "before" system, which indicated the impacts of change requests. This initial study motivated a more in-depth analysis of architectural debt. The results of this analysis were used to motivate a comprehensive refactoring of the software system. The third phase of the study was a follow-on architectural debt analysis which quantified the improvements made. Using this quantitative evidence, augmented by qualitative evidence gathered from in-depth interviews with Brightsquid's architects, we present lessons learned about the costs and benefits of paying down architecture debt in practice.Comment: Submitted to ICSE-SEIP 201

BIM adoption and implementation for architectural practices

Severe issues about data acquisition and management arise during the design creation and development due to complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity. BIM (Building Information Modelling) is a tool for a team based lean design approach towards improved architectural practice across the supply chain. However, moving from a CAD (Computer Aided Design) approach to BIM (Building Information Modelling) represents a fundamental change for individual disciplines and the construction industry as a whole. Although BIM has been implemented by large practices, it is not widely used by SMEs (Small and Medium Sized Enterprises). Purpose: This paper aims to present a systematic approach for BIM implementation for Architectural SMEs at the organizational level Design/Methodology/Approach: The research is undertaken through a KTP (Knowledge transfer Partnership) project between the University of Salford and John McCall Architects (JMA) a SME based in Liverpool. The overall aim of the KTP is to develop lean design practice through BIM adoption. The BIM implementation approach uses a socio-technical view which does not only consider the implementation of technology but also considers the socio-cultural environment that provides the context for its implementation. The action research oriented qualitative and quantitative research is used for discovery, comparison, and experimentation as it provides �learning by doing�. Findings: The strategic approach to BIM adoption incorporated people, process and technology equally and led to capacity building through the improvements in process, technological infrastructure and upskilling of JMA staff to attain efficiency gains and competitive advantages. Originality/Value: This paper introduces a systematic approach for BIM adoption based on the action research philosophy and demonstrates a roadmap for BIM adoption at the operational level for SME companie

Information systems evaluation: Navigating through the problem domain

Information systems (IS) make it possible to improve organizational efficiency and effectiveness, which can provide competitive advantage. There is, however, a great deal of difficulty reported in the normative literature when it comes to the evaluation of investments in IS, with companies often finding themselves unable to assess the full implications of their IS infrastructure. Although many of the savings resulting from IS are considered suitable for inclusion within traditional accountancy frameworks, it is the intangible and non-financial benefits, together with indirect project costs that complicate the justification process. In exploring this phenomenon, the paper reviews the normative literature in the area of IS evaluation, and then proposes a set of conjectures. These were tested within a case study to analyze the investment justification process of a manufacturing IS investment. The idiosyncrasies of the case study and problems experienced during its attempts to evaluate, implement, and realize the holistic implications of the IS investment are presented and critically analyzed. The paper concludes by identifying lessons learnt and thus, proposes a number of empirical findings for consideration by decisionmakers during the investment evaluation process

Collaborative improvement as an inspiration for supply chain collaboration

The battlefield of competition is today moving from the level of\ud individual firms to the one of the extended enterprises, that is, networks of customers and their suppliers. This paper discusses how learning and continuous improvement today take place in processes based on daily collaboration at intercompany level, i.e. Extended Manufacturing Enterprises (EMEs). The purpose of the paper is to present a preliminary theory on Collaborative Improvement (CoI), i.e. continuous improvement at the EME level. Based on a literature review on Supply Networks, and Continuous Improvement and on evidence from two explorative case studies, the paper proposes a model for Collaborative Improvement in EMEs and discusses a research approach based on Action Research and Action Learning to further develop preliminary theory and actionable knowledge on how to foster and sustain CoI in EMEs

Naming the Pain in Requirements Engineering: A Design for a Global Family of Surveys and First Results from Germany

For many years, we have observed industry struggling in defining a high quality requirements engineering (RE) and researchers trying to understand industrial expectations and problems. Although we are investigating the discipline with a plethora of empirical studies, they still do not allow for empirical generalisations. To lay an empirical and externally valid foundation about the state of the practice in RE, we aim at a series of open and reproducible surveys that allow us to steer future research in a problem-driven manner. We designed a globally distributed family of surveys in joint collaborations with different researchers and completed the first run in Germany. The instrument is based on a theory in the form of a set of hypotheses inferred from our experiences and available studies. We test each hypothesis in our theory and identify further candidates to extend the theory by correlation and Grounded Theory analysis. In this article, we report on the design of the family of surveys, its underlying theory, and the full results obtained from Germany with participants from 58 companies. The results reveal, for example, a tendency to improve RE via internally defined qualitative methods rather than relying on normative approaches like CMMI. We also discovered various RE problems that are statistically significant in practice. For instance, we could corroborate communication flaws or moving targets as problems in practice. Our results are not yet fully representative but already give first insights into current practices and problems in RE, and they allow us to draw lessons learnt for future replications. Our results obtained from this first run in Germany make us confident that the survey design and instrument are well-suited to be replicated and, thereby, to create a generalisable empirical basis of RE in practice