14,400 research outputs found
Bayesian Approximate Kernel Regression with Variable Selection
Nonlinear kernel regression models are often used in statistics and machine
learning because they are more accurate than linear models. Variable selection
for kernel regression models is a challenge partly because, unlike the linear
regression setting, there is no clear concept of an effect size for regression
coefficients. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that provides an
effect size analog of each explanatory variable for Bayesian kernel regression
models when the kernel is shift-invariant --- for example, the Gaussian kernel.
We use function analytic properties of shift-invariant reproducing kernel
Hilbert spaces (RKHS) to define a linear vector space that: (i) captures
nonlinear structure, and (ii) can be projected onto the original explanatory
variables. The projection onto the original explanatory variables serves as an
analog of effect sizes. The specific function analytic property we use is that
shift-invariant kernel functions can be approximated via random Fourier bases.
Based on the random Fourier expansion we propose a computationally efficient
class of Bayesian approximate kernel regression (BAKR) models for both
nonlinear regression and binary classification for which one can compute an
analog of effect sizes. We illustrate the utility of BAKR by examining two
important problems in statistical genetics: genomic selection (i.e. phenotypic
prediction) and association mapping (i.e. inference of significant variants or
loci). State-of-the-art methods for genomic selection and association mapping
are based on kernel regression and linear models, respectively. BAKR is the
first method that is competitive in both settings.Comment: 22 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables; theory added; new simulations
presented; references adde
Model Selection for Support Vector Machine Classification
We address the problem of model selection for Support Vector Machine (SVM)
classification. For fixed functional form of the kernel, model selection
amounts to tuning kernel parameters and the slack penalty coefficient . We
begin by reviewing a recently developed probabilistic framework for SVM
classification. An extension to the case of SVMs with quadratic slack penalties
is given and a simple approximation for the evidence is derived, which can be
used as a criterion for model selection. We also derive the exact gradients of
the evidence in terms of posterior averages and describe how they can be
estimated numerically using Hybrid Monte Carlo techniques. Though
computationally demanding, the resulting gradient ascent algorithm is a useful
baseline tool for probabilistic SVM model selection, since it can locate maxima
of the exact (unapproximated) evidence. We then perform extensive experiments
on several benchmark data sets. The aim of these experiments is to compare the
performance of probabilistic model selection criteria with alternatives based
on estimates of the test error, namely the so-called ``span estimate'' and
Wahba's Generalized Approximate Cross-Validation (GACV) error. We find that all
the ``simple'' model criteria (Laplace evidence approximations, and the Span
and GACV error estimates) exhibit multiple local optima with respect to the
hyperparameters. While some of these give performance that is competitive with
results from other approaches in the literature, a significant fraction lead to
rather higher test errors. The results for the evidence gradient ascent method
show that also the exact evidence exhibits local optima, but these give test
errors which are much less variable and also consistently lower than for the
simpler model selection criteria
Statistical Mechanics of Learning: A Variational Approach for Real Data
Using a variational technique, we generalize the statistical physics approach
of learning from random examples to make it applicable to real data. We
demonstrate the validity and relevance of our method by computing approximate
estimators for generalization errors that are based on training data alone.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure
Linear system identification using stable spline kernels and PLQ penalties
The classical approach to linear system identification is given by parametric
Prediction Error Methods (PEM). In this context, model complexity is often
unknown so that a model order selection step is needed to suitably trade-off
bias and variance. Recently, a different approach to linear system
identification has been introduced, where model order determination is avoided
by using a regularized least squares framework. In particular, the penalty term
on the impulse response is defined by so called stable spline kernels. They
embed information on regularity and BIBO stability, and depend on a small
number of parameters which can be estimated from data. In this paper, we
provide new nonsmooth formulations of the stable spline estimator. In
particular, we consider linear system identification problems in a very broad
context, where regularization functionals and data misfits can come from a rich
set of piecewise linear quadratic functions. Moreover, our anal- ysis includes
polyhedral inequality constraints on the unknown impulse response. For any
formulation in this class, we show that interior point methods can be used to
solve the system identification problem, with complexity O(n3)+O(mn2) in each
iteration, where n and m are the number of impulse response coefficients and
measurements, respectively. The usefulness of the framework is illustrated via
a numerical experiment where output measurements are contaminated by outliers.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figure
Rejoinder to "Support Vector Machines with Applications"
Rejoinder to ``Support Vector Machines with Applications'' [math.ST/0612817]Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000501 in the
Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
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