A Numerical Study on Assessing Sustainable Development with Future Genuine Savings Simulation

This paper presents a numerical examination of sustainability from the perspective of "Genuine Savings," using a data set provided by the World Bank. Unlike previously-used criteria of sustainability that focuses on observed paths of genuine savings rates, we consider future sustainability by simulating future paths of genuine savings. This analysis shows that some countries that had been classified as being sustainable by previous studies, using observed paths, are, in fact, not sustainable from the perspective of future sustainability. We provide information on capital components which should be targeted by policymakers in order to maintain future sustainability.

Modeling the impact of climate change and land use change scenarios on soil erosion at the Minab Dam Watershed

Climate and land use change can influence susceptibility to erosion and consequently land degradation. The aim of this study was to investigate in the baseline and a future period, the land use and climate change effects on soil erosion at an important dam watershed occupying a strategic position on the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The future climate change at the study area was inferred using statistical downscaling and validated by the Canadian earth system model (CanESM2). The future land use change was also simulated using the Markov chain and artificial neural network, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was adopted to estimate soil loss under climate and land use change scenarios. Results show that rainfall erosivity (R factor) will increase under all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The highest amount of R was 40.6 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1)y(-1) in 2030 under RPC 2.6. Future land use/land cover showed rangelands turning into agricultural lands, vegetation cover degradation and an increased soil cover among others. The change of C and R factors represented most of the increase of soil erosion and sediment production in the study area during the future period. The highest erosion during the future period was predicted to reach 14.5 t ha(-1) y(-1), which will generate 5.52 t ha(-1) y(-1) sediment. The difference between estimated and observed sediment was 1.42 t ha(-1) year(-1) at the baseline period. Among the soil erosion factors, soil cover (C factor) is the one that watershed managers could influence most in order to reduce soil loss and alleviate the negative effects of climate change.FCT-Foundation for Science and Technology - PTDC/GES-URB/31928/2017; FEDER ALG-01-0247-FEDER-037303info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Crop and soil organic matter simulation models – A brief review of their basic features and application in sub-Saharan Africa

Over the past decades, numerous crop-soil models have been developed to represent dynamic processes in cropland systems, including soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics (Campbell and Paustian, 2015). These models use mathematical equations that determine carbon allocation in the vegetation and biomass and soils to represent biogeochemical processes, such as photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition. Furthermore, a range of crop management practices are represented in most of the models, enabling an assessment of their impacts on SOC in agricultural systems. Although models were initially developed for research purposes, they are increasingly becoming important in many aspects of environmental policies (Manlay et al., 2007). Extensively tested models provide effective tools that can be used in identifying sustainable land management practices across different agroecological conditions. Compared to field experiments, which are time and resource consuming, models are more effective for making predictions and understanding crop and SOC dynamics on large scales and different time scales. However, the choice of the model depends on the ability of the model to simulate key processes in the region of interest. We conducted a survey to identify the features of the commonly used crop-soil models in order to inform the choices for application in sub-Saharan Africa. The survey was administered online to the model developers. In addition, we also conducted a literature search to assess the usage of the different models in different parts of sub-Saharan. In this brief, we provide a basic summary of the information from the survey and literature review

Modelling and simulating change in reforesting mountain landscapes using a social-ecological framework

Natural reforestation of European mountain landscapes raises major environmental and societal issues. With local stakeholders in the Pyrenees National Park area (France), we studied agricultural landscape colonisation by ash (Fraxinus excelsior) to enlighten its impacts on biodiversity and other landscape functions of importance for the valley socio-economics. The study comprised an integrated assessment of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) since the 1950s, and a scenario analysis of alternative future policy. We combined knowledge and methods from landscape ecology, land change and agricultural sciences, and a set of coordinated field studies to capture interactions and feedback in the local landscape/land-use system. Our results elicited the hierarchically-nested relationships between social and ecological processes. Agricultural change played a preeminent role in the spatial and temporal patterns of LUCC. Landscape colonisation by ash at the parcel level of organisation was merely controlled by grassland management, and in fact depended on the farmer's land management at the whole-farm level. LUCC patterns at the landscape level depended to a great extent on interactions between farm household behaviours and the spatial arrangement of landholdings within the landscape mosaic. Our results stressed the need to represent the local SES function at a fine scale to adequately capture scenarios of change in landscape functions. These findings orientated our modelling choices in the building an agent-based model for LUCC simulation (SMASH - Spatialized Multi-Agent System of landscape colonization by ASH). We discuss our method and results with reference to topical issues in interdisciplinary research into the sustainability of multifunctional landscapes

Modelling Organic Dairy Production Systems

In this study, a large number of organic dairy production strategies were compared in terms of physical and financial performance through the integrated use of computer simulation models and organic case study farm data. Production and financial data from three organic case study farms were used as a basis for the modelling process to ensure that the modelled systems were based on real sets of resources that might be available to a farmer. The case study farms were selected to represent a range of farming systems in terms of farm size, concentrate use and location. This paper describes the process used to model the farm systems: the integration of the three models used and the use of indicators to assess the modelled farm systems in terms of physical sustainability and financial performance

Heat transfer simulation of evacuated tube collectors (ETC): An application to a prototype

Since fossil fuels shortages are predicted for the forthcoming generations, the use of renewable energy sources is playing a key role and is strongly recommended worldwide by national and international regulations. In this scenario, solar collectors for hot water preparation, space heating and cooling are becoming an increasingly interesting alternative, especially in the building sector because of population growth. Thus, the present paper is addressed to numerically investigate the thermal behaviour of a prototypal evacuated tube by solving the heat transfer differential equations using the Finite Element Method. This is to reproduce the heat transfer process occurring within the real system, helping the industry improve the prototype

Adapting precision farming principles to organic crop production

Precision farming is a discipline that aims to increase efficiency in the management of agriculture throughout new technologies. Organic crop production systems in the future need to combine satisfactory productivity with long term sustainability. The aim of this paper is to present potentials and limits using precision farming priciples in organic crop productio