Reviewing agent-based modelling of socio-ecosystems: a methodology for the analysis of climate change adaptation and sustainability

The integrated - environmental, economic and social - analysis of climate change calls for a paradigm shift as it is fundamentally a problem of complex, bottom-up and multi-agent human behaviour. There is a growing awareness that global environmental change dynamics and the related socio-economic implications involve a degree of complexity that requires an innovative modelling of combined social and ecological systems. Climate change policy can no longer be addressed separately from a broader context of adaptation and sustainability strategies. A vast body of literature on agent-based modelling (ABM) shows its potential to couple social and environmental models, to incorporate the influence of micro-level decision making in the system dynamics and to study the emergence of collective responses to policies. However, there are few publications which concretely apply this methodology to the study of climate change related issues. The analysis of the state of the art reported in this paper supports the idea that today ABM is an appropriate methodology for the bottom-up exploration of climate policies, especially because it can take into account adaptive behaviour and heterogeneity of the system's components.Review, Agent-Based Modelling, Socio-Ecosystems, Climate Change, Adaptation, Complexity.

MULTI AGENT-BASED ENVIRONMENTAL LANDSCAPE (MABEL) - AN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SIMULATION MODEL: SOME EARLY ASSESSMENTS

The Multi Agent-Based Environmental Landscape model (MABEL) introduces a Distributed Artificial Intelligence (DAI) systemic methodology, to simulate land use and transformation changes over time and space. Computational agents represent abstract relations among geographic, environmental, human and socio-economic variables, with respect to land transformation pattern changes. A multi-agent environment is developed providing task-nonspecific problem-solving abilities, flexibility on achieving goals and representing existing relations observed in real-world scenarios, and goal-based efficiency. Intelligent MABEL agents acquire spatial expressions and perform specific tasks demonstrating autonomy, environmental interactions, communication and cooperation, reactivity and proactivity, reasoning and learning capabilities. Their decisions maximize both task-specific marginal utility for their actions and joint, weighted marginal utility for their time-stepping. Agent behavior is achieved by personalizing a dynamic utility-based knowledge base through sequential GIS filtering, probability-distributed weighting, joint probability Bayesian correlational weighting, and goal-based distributional properties, applied to socio-economic and behavioral criteria. First-order logics, heuristics and appropriation of time-step sequences employed, provide a simulation-able environment, capable of re-generating space-time evolution of the agents.Environmental Economics and Policy,

From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

Thin-Wall Machining of Light Alloys: A Review of Models and Industrial Approaches

Thin-wall parts are common in the aeronautical sector. However, their machining presents serious challenges such as vibrations and part deflections. To deal with these challenges, di erent approaches have been followed in recent years. This work presents the state of the art of thin-wall light-alloy machining, analyzing the problems related to each type of thin-wall parts, exposing the causes of both instability and deformation through analytical models, summarizing the computational techniques used, and presenting the solutions proposed by di erent authors from an industrial point of view. Finally, some further research lines are proposed

An emergence perspective on entrepreneurship: processes, structure and methodology

This paper explores entrepreneurship from the perspective of emergence, drawing on literature in complexity theory, social theory and entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship is conceptualised as the production of emergence, or emergent properties, via a simple model of initial conditions, processes of emergence that produces emergent properties at multiple levels (new phenomena such as products, services, firms, networks, patterns of behaviour, identities). Conceptualisation through emergence thus embraces actors, context, processes and (structural) outcomes. This paper builds on previous work that theorises the relationship between entrepreneurship and social change. We extend that work by considering the methodological implications of relating processes of entrepreneurship to the emergence of new phenomena

The organisation of sociality: a manifesto for a new science of multi-agent systems

In this paper, we pose and motivate a challenge, namely the need for a new science of multi-agent systems. We propose that this new science should be grounded, theoretically on a richer conception of sociality, and methodologically on the extensive use of computational modelling for real-world applications and social simulations. Here, the steps we set forth towards meeting that challenge are mainly theoretical. In this respect, we provide a new model of multi-agent systems that reflects a fully explicated conception of cognition, both at the individual and the collective level. Finally, the mechanisms and principles underpinning the model will be examined with particular emphasis on the contributions provided by contemporary organisation theory

Open problems in artificial life

This article lists fourteen open problems in artificial life, each of which is a grand challenge requiring a major advance on a fundamental issue for its solution. Each problem is briefly explained, and, where deemed helpful, some promising paths to its solution are indicated