"The Look of Stagniation: Romania's Erratic Transition"

A transition path is expected to lead, eventually, to economic performance and sectoral structure typical of market economies. This twofold result would issue from a complex resource re-allocation process, almost automatically igniting a new mechanism of accumulation and growth. Romania's experience of persistent fluctuations around a descending trend, however, seems to contradict such notion of the one-way, self-fuelling path. It causes us to rethink some of the analytical tools and theories economists are using everyday. In this paper, I will offer the reflections of an academician together with, hopefully, some more practical suggestions. My main point is that an analysis focusing solely upon resource re-allocation mechanisms cannot fully account for Romania's erratic transition because it tends to miss the link with the dual processes of accumulation and creation of new resources. I will, therefore, reconstruct the "other side" of Romania's story by looking at its dynamic structure, described by the distribution of the economy's sectoral paths. The evolution over time of such distribution is the key to understanding the two issues of macroeconomic vulnerability and the non-sustainability of the country's current situation. Thus, the dynamics of Romania's economy is treated as a specimen of an independent variety of transition. It is one that not only proves unable to initialise and then sustain long-term growth; it seems to actually absorb and destroy more resources than it creates, in this way generating a slow agony from time to time interrupted sudden bursts of activity. The term dynamic trap is meant to describe such a repeating pattern of wild fluctuations around a contracting trend. Due partly to the short time horizon and data availability, the conclusions of the foregoing analysis can only be tentative. Still, they clearly point out the need to re-consider policy for Romania and similar countries. In particular, measures are required to put in place and to enhance mechanisms of technology transfers, to re-orient sectoral composition that generates trade specialization, and generally to create conditions for an accelerated process of accumulation of physical as well as human capital assets. The economic environment in such countries seems unable to process macroeconomic policies in the expected way.

Observational Constraints on Higher Order Clustering up to $z\simeq 1

Constraints on the validity of the hierarchical gravitational instability theory and the evolution of biasing are presented based upon measurements of higher order clustering statistics in the Deeprange Survey, a catalog of $\sim710,000$ galaxies with $I_{AB} \le 24$ derived from a KPNO 4m CCD imaging survey of a contiguous $4^{\circ} \times 4^{\circ}$ region. We compute the 3-point and 4-point angular correlation functions using a direct estimation for the former and the counts-in-cells technique for both. The skewness $s_3$ decreases by a factor of $\simeq 3-4$ as galaxy magnitude increases over the range $17 \le I \le 22.5$ ($0.1 \lesssim z \lesssim 0.8$). This decrease is consistent with a small {\it increase} of the bias with increasing redshift, but not by more than a factor of 2 for the highest redshifts probed. Our results are strongly inconsistent, at about the $3.5-4 \sigma$ level, with typical cosmic string models in which the initial perturbations follow a non-Gaussian distribution - such models generally predict an opposite trend in the degree of bias as a function of redshift. We also find that the scaling relation between the 3-point and 4-point correlation functions remains approximately invariant over the above magnitude range. The simplest model that is consistent with these constraints is a universe in which an initially Gaussian perturbation spectrum evolves under the influence of gravity combined with a low level of bias between the matter and the galaxies that decreases slightly from $z \sim 0.8$ to the current epoch.Comment: 28 pages, 4 figures included, ApJ, accepted, minor change

Drawing driver's attention to potentially dangerous objects

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 41-43).Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 2008.Drivers often have difficulties noticing potentially dangerous objects due to weather or lighting conditions or when their field of view is restricted. This thesis presents a display method for potentially dangerous objects to assist drivers in noticing dangerous situations. The object segment is denoised by adaptive thresholding, and the contrast, brightness and color of the segment are enhanced in order to make the object more noticeable. The contrast of the background is reduced to increase the effect of enhancement, and dynamic effects like changing the enhancement window size, window location, contrast, and brightness are added to increase the detectibility of the object by the driver. Experiments showed that our method increased the perceptibility of potentially dangerous objects.by Orc̣un Kurugöl.S.M

逆ベイズ推定を用いた意思決定プロセスのモデル化

早大学位記番号:新7962早稲田大

Adopting Star Plot for Visualization of High Dimensional Multivariate Data

The Star Plot is one of popular methods for visualization of multivariate data. This method displays each data record as a star-shaped icon by mapping all variables (dimensions) on radiating rays (axes) originated from a single point. The number of such icons is equal to the number of data items (records). As the number of dimensions and the size of data set increase, Star Plot visualization soon becomes too cluttered because many rays have to be accommodated within small circular area and individual icons also become too small. To overcome these problems associated with visualization of high-dimensional multivariate data, we propose different ways of effectively using the Star Plot method. First, instead of displaying multiple star-shaped icons, one for each data item, we plot all data items together. With this overlapping, the entire display space can be used for rendering. Second, we shift the origin outward to produce a circle in the center, the circumference of which provides the origin points for the respective axes and increase the spacing between rays toward low-value ends. Third, to accommodate a very large number of dimensions, we adopt a multi-level approach in which we partition the dimensions into groups and plot corresponding rays in multiple concentric circular rings. For instance, our two-level Star Plot draws a subset of rays (e.g., 1/4th of total dimensions) in inner small circle and the rest (3/4th dimensions) in outer larger ring. The GUI support allows the user choose desired Star Plot option and also dynamically adjust the dimension partitioning and the ring boundary. We have demonstrated the effectiveness and usefulness of the proposed Star Plot extension by visualizing three multivariate data sets of varying number of dimensions

Animating the evolution of software

The use and development of open source software has increased significantly in the last decade. The high frequency of changes and releases across a distributed environment requires good project management tools in order to control the process adequately. However, even with these tools in place, the nature of the development and the fact that developers will often work on many other projects simultaneously, means that the developers are unlikely to have a clear picture of the current state of the project at any time. Furthermore, the poor documentation associated with many projects has a detrimental effect when encouraging new developers to contribute to the software. A typical version control repository contains a mine of information that is not always obvious and not easy to comprehend in its raw form. However, presenting this historical data in a suitable format by using software visualisation techniques allows the evolution of the software over a number of releases to be shown. This allows the changes that have been made to the software to be identified clearly, thus ensuring that the effect of those changes will also be emphasised. This then enables both managers and developers to gain a more detailed view of the current state of the project. The visualisation of evolving software introduces a number of new issues. This thesis investigates some of these issues in detail, and recommends a number of solutions in order to alleviate the problems that may otherwise arise. The solutions are then demonstrated in the definition of two new visualisations. These use historical data contained within version control repositories to show the evolution of the software at a number of levels of granularity. Additionally, animation is used as an integral part of both visualisations - not only to show the evolution by representing the progression of time, but also to highlight the changes that have occurred. Previously, the use of animation within software visualisation has been primarily restricted to small-scale, hand generated visualisations. However, this thesis shows the viability of using animation within software visualisation with automated visualisations on a large scale. In addition, evaluation of the visualisations has shown that they are suitable for showing the changes that have occurred in the software over a period of time, and subsequently how the software has evolved. These visualisations are therefore suitable for use by developers and managers involved with open source software. In addition, they also provide a basis for future research in evolutionary visualisations, software evolution and open source development

A Little Common Sense is a Dangerous Thing: The Inherent Inconsistency Between KSR and Current Official Notice Policy

[Excerpt] “The question of whether an invention is an obvious variation of existing technology is one that has troubled courts for decades. From its roots in nineteenth century case law to the recent Supreme Court decision KSR v. Teleflex, Inc., the doctrine of obviousness has waxed and waned—moving through a variety of judicially-created tests to a current state that is still far from perspicuous. This paper will examine obviousness through a particular lens: the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (“USPTO,” “PTO”) tool known as “official notice”—the practice of declaring a patent application’s claims unpatentable as obvious based on undocumented reasoning, such as the common sense or common knowledge of a person having ordinary skill in the art to which the application pertains. After KSR, using unsubstantiated common sense-based rationales for rejecting patent claims is considered a completely valid practice. However, a line of obviousness cases, including one from the United States Supreme Court, stands for the polar opposite position—that declaring a patent invalid as obvious without underlying prior art support does not comport with the standards of the Administrative Procedure Act. Unfortunately, this contradiction leaves patent practitioners and the federal district courts to reconcile diametrically opposed holdings, especially when a case involves official notice. Part II of this paper will give a brief history of general obviousness jurisprudence up to the Supreme Court’s KSR decision in 2007. Next, Part III will introduce the reader to the obviousness inquiry through the eyes of a USPTO examiner by presenting a hypothetical patent application scenario and defining various terms of art. Part IV will introduce the concept of formal official notice at the USPTO, including an examination of the official agency guidelines for the practice, and will present a judicial history of official notice. Part V will return to KSR, presenting more recent Federal Circuit obviousness cases and introducing the problems that the current jurisprudence brings about. Finally, Part VI will conclude with potential solutions to the issue, arguing that the judiciary should hold the USPTO to task in providing evidence that an invention is in fact obvious.