Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network in Indonesia

Short-term Load Forecast (STLF) is a load forecasting that is very important to study because it determines the operating pattern of the electrical system. Forecasting errors, both positive and negative, result in considerable losses because operating costs increase and ultimately lead to waste. STLF research in Indonesia, especially the State Electricity Company (PLN Sulselrabar), has yet to be widely used. Methods mainly used are manual and conventional methods because they are considered adequate. In addition, Indonesia's geographical conditions are extensive and diverse, and the electricity system is complex. As a result, the factors affecting each country's electricity demand are different, so unique forecasting methods are needed. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one of the Artificial Intelligent (AI) methods widely used for STLF because it can model complex and non-linear relationships from networks. This paper aims to build an STLF forecasting model that is suitable for Indonesia's geographical conditions using several ANN models tested. Based on several ANN forecasting models, the test results obtained the best model is Model-6 with ANN architecture (9-20-1). This model has one hidden layer, 20 neurons in the hidden layer, a sigmoid logistic activation function (binary sigmoid), and a linear function. Forecasting performance values obtained mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 430.48 MW2, 15.07 MW, and 2.81%, respectively

Impacts of traffic data on short-term residential load forecasting before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Accurate load forecasting is essential for power-sector planning and management. This applies during normal situations as well as phase changes such as the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic due to variations in electricity consumption that made it difficult for system operators to forecast load accurately. So far, few studies have used traffic data to improve load prediction accuracy. This paper aims to investigate the influence of traffic data in combination with other commonly used features (historical load, weather, and time) – to better predict short-term residential electricity consumption. Based on data from two selected distribution grid areas in Switzerland and random forest as a forecasting technique, the findings suggest that the impact of traffic data on load forecasts is much smaller than the impact of time variables. However, traffic data could improve load forecasting where information on historical load is not available. Another benefit of using traffic data is that it might explain the phenomenon of interest better than historical electricity demand. Some of our findings vary greatly between the two datasets, indicating the importance of studies based on larger numbers of datasets, features, and forecasting approaches

Probabilistic short-term load forecasting at low voltage in distribution networks

Predmet istraživanja ove doktorske disertacije je kratkoročna probabili- stička prognoza opterećenja na niskom naponu u elektrodistributivnim mre- žama. Cilj istraživanja je da se razvije novo rešenje koje će uvažiti varija- bilnost opterećenja na niskom naponu i ponuditi konkurentnu tačnost prog- noze uz visoku efikasnost sa stanovišta zauzeća računarskih resursa. Predlo- ženo rešenje se zasniva na primeni statističkih metoda i metoda mašinskog (dubokog) učenja u reprezentaciji podataka (ekstrakciji i odabiru atributa), klasterovanju i regresiji. Efikasnost predloženog rešenja je verifikovana u studiji slučaja nad skupom realnih podataka sa pametnih brojila. Rezultat primene predloženog rešenja je visoka tačnost prognoze i kratko vreme izvr- šavanja u poređenju sa konkurentnim rešenjima iz aktuelnog stanja u oblasti.This Ph.D. thesis deals with the problem of probabilistic short-term load forecasting at the low voltage level in power distribution networks. The research goal is to develop a new solution that considers load variability and offers high forecasting accuracy without excessive hardware requirements. The proposed solution is based on the application of statistical methods and machine (deep) learning methods for data representation (feature extraction and selection), clustering, and regression. The efficiency of the proposed solution was verified in a case study on real smart meter data. The case study results confirm that the application of the proposed solution leads to high forecast accuracy and short execution time compared to related solutions