Sequential Predictions based on Algorithmic Complexity

This paper studies sequence prediction based on the monotone Kolmogorov complexity Km=-log m, i.e. based on universal deterministic/one-part MDL. m is extremely close to Solomonoff's universal prior M, the latter being an excellent predictor in deterministic as well as probabilistic environments, where performance is measured in terms of convergence of posteriors or losses. Despite this closeness to M, it is difficult to assess the prediction quality of m, since little is known about the closeness of their posteriors, which are the important quantities for prediction. We show that for deterministic computable environments, the "posterior" and losses of m converge, but rapid convergence could only be shown on-sequence; the off-sequence convergence can be slow. In probabilistic environments, neither the posterior nor the losses converge, in general.Comment: 26 pages, LaTe

Algorithmic Complexity Bounds on Future Prediction Errors

We bound the future loss when predicting any (computably) stochastic sequence online. Solomonoff finitely bounded the total deviation of his universal predictor $M$ from the true distribution $mu$ by the algorithmic complexity of $mu$. Here we assume we are at a time $t>1$ and already observed $x=x_1...x_t$. We bound the future prediction performance on $x_{t+1}x_{t+2}...$ by a new variant of algorithmic complexity of $mu$ given $x$, plus the complexity of the randomness deficiency of $x$. The new complexity is monotone in its condition in the sense that this complexity can only decrease if the condition is prolonged. We also briefly discuss potential generalizations to Bayesian model classes and to classification problems.Comment: 21 page

Three Puzzles on Mathematics, Computation, and Games

In this lecture I will talk about three mathematical puzzles involving mathematics and computation that have preoccupied me over the years. The first puzzle is to understand the amazing success of the simplex algorithm for linear programming. The second puzzle is about errors made when votes are counted during elections. The third puzzle is: are quantum computers possible?Comment: ICM 2018 plenary lecture, Rio de Janeiro, 36 pages, 7 Figure

Online Learning of k-CNF Boolean Functions

This paper revisits the problem of learning a k-CNF Boolean function from examples in the context of online learning under the logarithmic loss. In doing so, we give a Bayesian interpretation to one of Valiant's celebrated PAC learning algorithms, which we then build upon to derive two efficient, online, probabilistic, supervised learning algorithms for predicting the output of an unknown k-CNF Boolean function. We analyze the loss of our methods, and show that the cumulative log-loss can be upper bounded, ignoring logarithmic factors, by a polynomial function of the size of each example.Comment: 20 LaTeX pages. 2 Algorithms. Some Theorem

Majority-Vote Cellular Automata, Ising Dynamics, and P-Completeness

We study cellular automata where the state at each site is decided by a majority vote of the sites in its neighborhood. These are equivalent, for a restricted set of initial conditions, to non-zero probability transitions in single spin-flip dynamics of the Ising model at zero temperature. We show that in three or more dimensions these systems can simulate Boolean circuits of AND and OR gates, and are therefore P-complete. That is, predicting their state t time-steps in the future is at least as hard as any other problem that takes polynomial time on a serial computer. Therefore, unless a widely believed conjecture in computer science is false, it is impossible even with parallel computation to predict majority-vote cellular automata, or zero-temperature single spin-flip Ising dynamics, qualitatively faster than by explicit simulation.Comment: 10 pages with figure

On Universal Prediction and Bayesian Confirmation

The Bayesian framework is a well-studied and successful framework for inductive reasoning, which includes hypothesis testing and confirmation, parameter estimation, sequence prediction, classification, and regression. But standard statistical guidelines for choosing the model class and prior are not always available or fail, in particular in complex situations. Solomonoff completed the Bayesian framework by providing a rigorous, unique, formal, and universal choice for the model class and the prior. We discuss in breadth how and in which sense universal (non-i.i.d.) sequence prediction solves various (philosophical) problems of traditional Bayesian sequence prediction. We show that Solomonoff's model possesses many desirable properties: Strong total and weak instantaneous bounds, and in contrast to most classical continuous prior densities has no zero p(oste)rior problem, i.e. can confirm universal hypotheses, is reparametrization and regrouping invariant, and avoids the old-evidence and updating problem. It even performs well (actually better) in non-computable environments.Comment: 24 page

Semi-proximal Mirror-Prox for Nonsmooth Composite Minimization

We propose a new first-order optimisation algorithm to solve high-dimensional non-smooth composite minimisation problems. Typical examples of such problems have an objective that decomposes into a non-smooth empirical risk part and a non-smooth regularisation penalty. The proposed algorithm, called Semi-Proximal Mirror-Prox, leverages the Fenchel-type representation of one part of the objective while handling the other part of the objective via linear minimization over the domain. The algorithm stands in contrast with more classical proximal gradient algorithms with smoothing, which require the computation of proximal operators at each iteration and can therefore be impractical for high-dimensional problems. We establish the theoretical convergence rate of Semi-Proximal Mirror-Prox, which exhibits the optimal complexity bounds, i.e. $O(1/\epsilon^2)$, for the number of calls to linear minimization oracle. We present promising experimental results showing the interest of the approach in comparison to competing methods

On Generalized Computable Universal Priors and their Convergence

Solomonoff unified Occam's razor and Epicurus' principle of multiple explanations to one elegant, formal, universal theory of inductive inference, which initiated the field of algorithmic information theory. His central result is that the posterior of the universal semimeasure M converges rapidly to the true sequence generating posterior mu, if the latter is computable. Hence, M is eligible as a universal predictor in case of unknown mu. The first part of the paper investigates the existence and convergence of computable universal (semi)measures for a hierarchy of computability classes: recursive, estimable, enumerable, and approximable. For instance, M is known to be enumerable, but not estimable, and to dominate all enumerable semimeasures. We present proofs for discrete and continuous semimeasures. The second part investigates more closely the types of convergence, possibly implied by universality: in difference and in ratio, with probability 1, in mean sum, and for Martin-Loef random sequences. We introduce a generalized concept of randomness for individual sequences and use it to exhibit difficulties regarding these issues. In particular, we show that convergence fails (holds) on generalized-random sequences in gappy (dense) Bernoulli classes.Comment: 22 page