Synthetic sequence generator for recommender systems - memory biased random walk on sequence multilayer network

Personalized recommender systems rely on each user's personal usage data in the system, in order to assist in decision making. However, privacy policies protecting users' rights prevent these highly personal data from being publicly available to a wider researcher audience. In this work, we propose a memory biased random walk model on multilayer sequence network, as a generator of synthetic sequential data for recommender systems. We demonstrate the applicability of the synthetic data in training recommender system models for cases when privacy policies restrict clickstream publishing.Comment: The new updated version of the pape

Multidisciplinary design of a micro-USV for re-entry operations

Unmanned Space Vehicles (USV) are seen as a test-bed for enabling technologies and as a carrier to deliver and return experiments to and from low-Earth orbit. USV's are a potentially interesting solution also for the exploration of other planets or as long-range recognisance vehicles. As test bed, USV's are seen as a stepping stone for the development of future generation re-usable launchers but also as way to test key technologies for re-entry operations. Examples of recent developments are the PRORA-USV, designed by the Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA) in collaboration with Gavazzi Space, or the Boeing X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle (OTV), that is foreseen as an alternative to the space shuttle to deliver experiments into Earth orbit. Among the technologies to be demonstrated with the X-37 are improved thermal protection systems, avionics, the autonomous guidance system, and an advanced airfram

Robust multi-fidelity design of a micro re-entry unmanned space vehicle

This article addresses the preliminary robust design of a small-scale re-entry unmanned space vehicle by means of a hybrid optimization technique. The approach, developed in this article, closely couples an evolutionary multi-objective algorithm with a direct transcription method for optimal control problems. The evolutionary part handles the shape parameters of the vehicle and the uncertain objective functions, while the direct transcription method generates an optimal control profile for the re-entry trajectory. Uncertainties on the aerodynamic forces and characteristics of the thermal protection material are incorporated into the vehicle model, and a Monte-Carlo sampling procedure is used to compute relevant statistical characteristics of the maximum heat flux and internal temperature. Then, the hybrid algorithm searches for geometries that minimize the mean value of the maximum heat flux, the mean value of the maximum internal temperature, and the weighted sum of their variance: the evolutionary part handles the shape parameters of the vehicle and the uncertain functions, while the direct transcription method generates the optimal control profile for the re-entry trajectory of each individual of the population. During the optimization process, artificial neural networks are utilized to approximate the aerodynamic forces required by the optimal control solver. The artificial neural networks are trained and updated by means of a multi-fidelity approach: initially a low-fidelity analytical model, fitted on a waverider type of vehicle, is used to train the neural networks, and through the evolution a mix of analytical and computational fluid dynamic, high-fidelity computations are used to update it. The data obtained by the high-fidelity model progressively become the main source of updates for the neural networks till, near the end of the optimization process, the influence of the data obtained by the analytical model is practically nullified. On the basis of preliminary results, the adopted technique is able to predict achievable performance of the small spacecraft and the requirements in terms of thermal protection materials

ASAC: Automatic Sensitivity Analysis for Approximate Computing

The approximation based programming paradigm is especially attractive for developing error-resilient applications, targeting low power embedded devices. It allows for program data to be computed and stored approximately for better energy efficiency. The duration of battery in the smartphones, tablets, etc. is generally more of a concern to users than an application’s accuracy or fidelity beyond certain acceptable quality of service. Therefore, relaxing accuracy to improve energy efficiency is an attractive tradeoff when permissible by the application’s domain. Recent works suggest source code annotations and type qualifiers to facilitate safe approximate computation and data manipulation. It requires rewriting of programs or the availability of source codes for annotations. This may not be feasible as real-world applications tend to be large, with source code that is not readily available. In this paper, we propose a novel sensitivity analysis that automatically generates annotations for programs for the purpose of approximate computing. Our framework, ASAC, extracts information about the sensitivity of the output with respect to program data. We show that the program output is sensitive to only a subset of program data that we deem critical, and hence must be precise. The rest of the data can be computed and stored approximately. We evaluated our analysis on a range of applications, and achieved a 86 % accuracy compared to manual annotations by programmers. We validated our analysis by showing that the applications are within the acceptable QoS threshold if we approximate the non-critical data

Aging concrete structures: a review of mechanics and concepts

The safe and cost-efficient management of our built infrastructure is a challenging task considering the expected service life of at least 50 years. In spite of time-dependent changes in material properties, deterioration processes and changing demand by society, the structures need to satisfy many technical requirements related to serviceability, durability, sustainability and bearing capacity. This review paper summarizes the challenges associated with the safe design and maintenance of aging concrete structures and gives an overview of some concepts and approaches that are being developed to address these challenges

Soft computing approaches to uncertainty propagation in environmental risk mangement

Real-world problems, especially those that involve natural systems, are complex and composed of many nondeterministic components having non-linear coupling. It turns out that in dealing with such systems, one has to face a high degree of uncertainty and tolerate imprecision. Classical system models based on numerical analysis, crisp logic or binary logic have characteristics of precision and categoricity and classified as hard computing approach. In contrast soft computing approaches like probabilistic reasoning, fuzzy logic, artificial neural nets etc have characteristics of approximation and dispositionality. Although in hard computing, imprecision and uncertainty are undesirable properties, in soft computing the tolerance for imprecision and uncertainty is exploited to achieve tractability, lower cost of computation, effective communication and high Machine Intelligence Quotient (MIQ). Proposed thesis has tried to explore use of different soft computing approaches to handle uncertainty in environmental risk management. The work has been divided into three parts consisting five papers. In the first part of this thesis different uncertainty propagation methods have been investigated. The first methodology is generalized fuzzy α-cut based on the concept of transformation method. A case study of uncertainty analysis of pollutant transport in the subsurface has been used to show the utility of this approach. This approach shows superiority over conventional methods of uncertainty modelling. A Second method is proposed to manage uncertainty and variability together in risk models. The new hybrid approach combining probabilistic and fuzzy set theory is called Fuzzy Latin Hypercube Sampling (FLHS). An important property of this method is its ability to separate randomness and imprecision to increase the quality of information. A fuzzified statistical summary of the model results gives indices of sensitivity and uncertainty that relate the effects of variability and uncertainty of input variables to model predictions. The feasibility of the method is validated to analyze total variance in the calculation of incremental lifetime risks due to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F) for the residents living in the surroundings of a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) in Basque Country, Spain. The second part of this thesis deals with the use of artificial intelligence technique for generating environmental indices. The first paper focused on the development of a Hazzard Index (HI) using persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity properties of a large number of organic and inorganic pollutants. For deriving this index, Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) has been used which provided a hazard ranking for each compound. Subsequently, an Integral Risk Index was developed taking into account the HI and the concentrations of all pollutants in soil samples collected in the target area. Finally, a risk map was elaborated by representing the spatial distribution of the Integral Risk Index with a Geographic Information System (GIS). The second paper is an improvement of the first work. New approach called Neuro-Probabilistic HI was developed by combining SOM and Monte-Carlo analysis. It considers uncertainty associated with contaminants characteristic values. This new index seems to be an adequate tool to be taken into account in risk assessment processes. In both study, the methods have been validated through its implementation in the industrial chemical / petrochemical area of Tarragona. The third part of this thesis deals with decision-making framework for environmental risk management. In this study, an integrated fuzzy relation analysis (IFRA) model is proposed for risk assessment involving multiple criteria. The fuzzy risk-analysis model is proposed to comprehensively evaluate all risks associated with contaminated systems resulting from more than one toxic chemical. The model is an integrated view on uncertainty techniques based on multi-valued mappings, fuzzy relations and fuzzy analytical hierarchical process. Integration of system simulation and risk analysis using fuzzy approach allowed to incorporate system modelling uncertainty and subjective risk criteria. In this study, it has been shown that a broad integration of fuzzy system simulation and fuzzy risk analysis is possible. In conclusion, this study has broadly demonstrated the usefulness of soft computing approaches in environmental risk analysis. The proposed methods could significantly advance practice of risk analysis by effectively addressing critical issues of uncertainty propagation problem.Los problemas del mundo real, especialmente aquellos que implican sistemas naturales, son complejos y se componen de muchos componentes indeterminados, que muestran en muchos casos una relación no lineal. Los modelos convencionales basados en técnicas analíticas que se utilizan actualmente para conocer y predecir el comportamiento de dichos sistemas pueden ser muy complicados e inflexibles cuando se quiere hacer frente a la imprecisión y la complejidad del sistema en un mundo real. El tratamiento de dichos sistemas, supone el enfrentarse a un elevado nivel de incertidumbre así como considerar la imprecisión. Los modelos clásicos basados en análisis numéricos, lógica de valores exactos o binarios, se caracterizan por su precisión y categorización y son clasificados como una aproximación al hard computing. Por el contrario, el soft computing tal como la lógica de razonamiento probabilístico, las redes neuronales artificiales, etc., tienen la característica de aproximación y disponibilidad. Aunque en la hard computing, la imprecisión y la incertidumbre son propiedades no deseadas, en el soft computing la tolerancia en la imprecisión y la incerteza se aprovechan para alcanzar tratabilidad, bajos costes de computación, una comunicación efectiva y un elevado Machine Intelligence Quotient (MIQ). La tesis propuesta intenta explorar el uso de las diferentes aproximaciones en la informática blanda para manipular la incertidumbre en la gestión del riesgo medioambiental. El trabajo se ha dividido en tres secciones que forman parte de cinco artículos. En la primera parte de esta tesis, se han investigado diferentes métodos de propagación de la incertidumbre. El primer método es el generalizado fuzzy α-cut, el cual está basada en el método de transformación. Para demostrar la utilidad de esta aproximación, se ha utilizado un caso de estudio de análisis de incertidumbre en el transporte de la contaminación en suelo. Esta aproximación muestra una superioridad frente a los métodos convencionales de modelación de la incertidumbre. La segunda metodología propuesta trabaja conjuntamente la variabilidad y la incertidumbre en los modelos de evaluación de riesgo. Para ello, se ha elaborado una nueva aproximación híbrida denominada Fuzzy Latin Hypercube Sampling (FLHS), que combina los conjuntos de la teoría de probabilidad con la teoría de los conjuntos difusos. Una propiedad importante de esta teoría es su capacidad para separarse los aleatoriedad y imprecisión, lo que supone la obtención de una mayor calidad de la información. El resumen estadístico fuzzificado de los resultados del modelo generan índices de sensitividad e incertidumbre que relacionan los efectos de la variabilidad e incertidumbre de los parámetros de modelo con las predicciones de los modelos. La viabilidad del método se llevó a cabo mediante la aplicación de un caso a estudio donde se analizó la varianza total en la cálculo del incremento del riesgo sobre el tiempo de vida de los habitantes que habitan en los alrededores de una incineradora de residuos sólidos urbanos en Tarragona, España, debido a las emisiones de dioxinas y furanos (PCDD/Fs). La segunda parte de la tesis consistió en la utilización de las técnicas de la inteligencia artificial para la generación de índices medioambientales. En el primer artículo se desarrolló un Índice de Peligrosidad a partir de los valores de persistencia, bioacumulación y toxicidad de un elevado número de contaminantes orgánicos e inorgánicos. Para su elaboración, se utilizaron los Mapas de Auto-Organizativos (SOM), que proporcionaron un ranking de peligrosidad para cada compuesto. A continuación, se elaboró un Índice de Riesgo Integral teniendo en cuenta el Índice de peligrosidad y las concentraciones de cada uno de los contaminantes en las muestras de suelo recogidas en la zona de estudio. Finalmente, se elaboró un mapa de la distribución espacial del Índice de Riesgo Integral mediante la representación en un Sistema de Información Geográfico (SIG). El segundo artículo es un mejoramiento del primer trabajo. En este estudio, se creó un método híbrido de los Mapas Auto-organizativos con los métodos probabilísticos, obteniéndose de esta forma un Índice de Riesgo Integrado. Mediante la combinación de SOM y el análisis de Monte-Carlo se desarrolló una nueva aproximación llamada Índice de Peligrosidad Neuro-Probabilística. Este nuevo índice es una herramienta adecuada para ser utilizada en los procesos de análisis. En ambos artículos, la viabilidad de los métodos han sido validados a través de su aplicación en el área de la industria química y petroquímica de Tarragona (Cataluña, España). El tercer apartado de esta tesis está enfocado en la elaboración de una estructura metodológica de un sistema de ayuda en la toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo medioambiental. En este estudio, se presenta un modelo integrado de análisis de fuzzy (IFRA) para la evaluación del riesgo cuyo resultado depende de múltiples criterios. El modelo es una visión integrada de las técnicas de incertidumbre basadas en diseños de valoraciones múltiples, relaciones fuzzy y procesos analíticos jerárquicos inciertos. La integración de la simulación del sistema y el análisis del riesgo utilizando aproximaciones inciertas permitieron incorporar la incertidumbre procedente del modelo junto con la incertidumbre procedente de la subjetividad de los criterios. En este estudio, se ha demostrado que es posible crear una amplia integración entre la simulación de un sistema incierto y de un análisis de riesgo incierto. En conclusión, este trabajo demuestra ampliamente la utilidad de aproximación Soft Computing en el análisis de riesgos ambientales. Los métodos propuestos podría avanzar significativamente la práctica de análisis de riesgos de abordar eficazmente el problema de propagación de incertidumbre

Probabilistic policy experiments : the use of energy-economic-environmental models in the climate change policy process

This paper uses the Edmonds-Reilly model to explore an alternative approach for using energy-economic-environmental models when analyzing future CO2 emissions. This approach--conducting probabilistic policy experiments--can be used to investigate the effectiveness of various policy options in the context of uncertainty. the analysis builds on work by Nordhaus and Yohe (1983) and Edmonds et al. (1986). A key feature of using a probabilistic approach is that it offers both analysts and policymakers an opportunity to move away from arguing about which scenario is the "right," best guess scenario, and towards a discussion of which strategies are effective across a wide range of possible futures. this paper both develops a methodology for conducting probabilistic policy experiments and presents the results of 5 preliminary experiments using this approach.Supported by the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change