Rule Optimization of Fuzzy Inference System Sugeno using Evolution Strategy for Electricity Consumption Forecasting

The need for accurate load forecasts will increase in the future because of the dramatic changes occurring in the electricity consumption. Sugeno fuzzy inference system (FIS) can be used for short-term load forecasting. However, challenges in the electrical load forecasting are the data used the data trend. Therefore, it is difficult to develop appropriate fuzzy rules for Sugeno FIS. This paper proposes Evolution Strategy method to determine appropriate rules for Sugeno FIS that have minimum forecasting error. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is used to evaluate the goodness of the forecasting result. The numerical experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed optimized Sugeno FIS for several test-case problems. The optimized Sugeno FIS produce lower RMSE comparable to those achieved by other well-known method in the literature

Influences on energy supply infrastructure: A comparison of different theoretical perspectives

Changes to the energy supply infrastructure are a vital component of climate change mitigation strategies. But what exactly underlies changes to energy supply infrastructure? This paper, through exploration and critical analysis of relevant literature, explores the various underpinning influences on energy infrastructure supply using a comparison of different theoretical perspectives. These influences were explored with specific emphasis on techno-economics, social psychology, socio-technical transitions, social practices and institutional dimensions to energy supply. The aim was to have a better understanding of the (direct and indirect) role of politics and the political system in influencing energy supply infrastructure decisions through the various theoretical lenses. The study revealed that techno-economics uses financial instruments and market information as intervention tools. Its effectiveness is measured by social welfare and cost effectiveness. Social psychology uses a combination of information, incentives and innovative informative instruments as its intervention tools. Its effectiveness is measured by behavioural change. Institutions use regulatory instruments as its intervention tool. Its effectiveness is measured by regulatory compliance. Social practices look at change in broader social systems. Its effectiveness is measured by social change. Socio-technical transitions focus on determining social movements and social innovations. Its effectiveness is measured by legitimacy and social learning