38,614 research outputs found
An Exact Formula for the Average Run Length to False Alarm of the Generalized Shiryaev-Roberts Procedure for Change-Point Detection under Exponential Observations
We derive analytically an exact closed-form formula for the standard minimax
Average Run Length (ARL) to false alarm delivered by the Generalized
Shiryaev-Roberts (GSR) change-point detection procedure devised to detect a
shift in the baseline mean of a sequence of independent exponentially
distributed observations. Specifically, the formula is found through direct
solution of the respective integral (renewal) equation, and is a general result
in that the GSR procedure's headstart is not restricted to a bounded range, nor
is there a "ceiling" value for the detection threshold. Apart from the
theoretical significance (in change-point detection, exact closed-form
performance formulae are typically either difficult or impossible to get,
especially for the GSR procedure), the obtained formula is also useful to a
practitioner: in cases of practical interest, the formula is a function linear
in both the detection threshold and the headstart, and, therefore, the ARL to
false alarm of the GSR procedure can be easily computed.Comment: 9 pages; Accepted for publication in Proceedings of the 12-th
German-Polish Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their
Application
Random walks - a sequential approach
In this paper sequential monitoring schemes to detect nonparametric drifts
are studied for the random walk case. The procedure is based on a kernel
smoother. As a by-product we obtain the asymptotics of the Nadaraya-Watson
estimator and its as- sociated sequential partial sum process under
non-standard sampling. The asymptotic behavior differs substantially from the
stationary situation, if there is a unit root (random walk component). To
obtain meaningful asymptotic results we consider local nonpara- metric
alternatives for the drift component. It turns out that the rate of convergence
at which the drift vanishes determines whether the asymptotic properties of the
monitoring procedure are determined by a deterministic or random function.
Further, we provide a theoretical result about the optimal kernel for a given
alternative
Efficient detection and signal parameter estimation with application to high dynamic GPS receiver
In a system for deriving position, velocity, and acceleration information from a received signal emitted from an object to be tracked wherein the signal comprises a carrier signal phase modulated by unknown binary data and experiencing very high Doppler and Doppler rate, this invention provides combined estimation/detection apparatus for simultaneously detecting data bits and obtaining estimates of signal parameters such as carrier phase and frequency related to receiver dynamics in a sequential manner. There is a first stage for obtaining estimates of the signal parameters related to phase and frequency in the vicinity of possible data transitions on the basis of measurements obtained within a current data bit. A second stage uses the estimates from the first stage to decide whether or not a data transition has actually occurred. There is a third stage for removing data modulation from the received signal when a data transition has occurred and a fourth stage for using the received signal with data modulation removed therefrom to update global parameters which are dependent only upon receiver dynamics and independent of data modulation. Finally, there is a fifth stage for using the global parameters to determine the position, velocity, and acceleration of the object
Single camera pose estimation using Bayesian filtering and Kinect motion priors
Traditional approaches to upper body pose estimation using monocular vision
rely on complex body models and a large variety of geometric constraints. We
argue that this is not ideal and somewhat inelegant as it results in large
processing burdens, and instead attempt to incorporate these constraints
through priors obtained directly from training data. A prior distribution
covering the probability of a human pose occurring is used to incorporate
likely human poses. This distribution is obtained offline, by fitting a
Gaussian mixture model to a large dataset of recorded human body poses, tracked
using a Kinect sensor. We combine this prior information with a random walk
transition model to obtain an upper body model, suitable for use within a
recursive Bayesian filtering framework. Our model can be viewed as a mixture of
discrete Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, in that states behave as random walks,
but drift towards a set of typically observed poses. This model is combined
with measurements of the human head and hand positions, using recursive
Bayesian estimation to incorporate temporal information. Measurements are
obtained using face detection and a simple skin colour hand detector, trained
using the detected face. The suggested model is designed with analytical
tractability in mind and we show that the pose tracking can be
Rao-Blackwellised using the mixture Kalman filter, allowing for computational
efficiency while still incorporating bio-mechanical properties of the upper
body. In addition, the use of the proposed upper body model allows reliable
three-dimensional pose estimates to be obtained indirectly for a number of
joints that are often difficult to detect using traditional object recognition
strategies. Comparisons with Kinect sensor results and the state of the art in
2D pose estimation highlight the efficacy of the proposed approach.Comment: 25 pages, Technical report, related to Burke and Lasenby, AMDO 2014
conference paper. Code sample: https://github.com/mgb45/SignerBodyPose Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJMTSo7-uF
Reaction times of monitoring schemes for ARMA time series
This paper is concerned with deriving the limit distributions of stopping
times devised to sequentially uncover structural breaks in the parameters of an
autoregressive moving average, ARMA, time series. The stopping rules are
defined as the first time lag for which detectors, based on CUSUMs and Page's
CUSUMs for residuals, exceed the value of a prescribed threshold function. It
is shown that the limit distributions crucially depend on a drift term induced
by the underlying ARMA parameters. The precise form of the asymptotic is
determined by an interplay between the location of the break point and the size
of the change implied by the drift. The theoretical results are accompanied by
a simulation study and applications to electroencephalography, EEG, and IBM
data. The empirical results indicate a satisfactory behavior in finite samples.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/14-BEJ604 in the Bernoulli
(http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical
Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm
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