29,941 research outputs found
Run-time prediction of business process indicators using evolutionary decision rules
Predictive monitoring of business processes is a challenging topic of process mining which is concerned with the prediction of process indicators of running process instances. The main value of predictive monitoring is to provide information in order to take proactive and corrective actions to improve process performance and mitigate risks in real time. In this paper, we present an approach for predictive monitoring based on the use of evolutionary algorithms. Our method provides a novel event window-based encoding and generates a set of decision rules for the run-time prediction of process indicators according to event log properties. These rules can be interpreted by users to extract further insight of the business processes while keeping a high level of accuracy. Furthermore, a full software stack consisting of a tool to support the training phase and a framework that enables the integration of run-time predictions with business process management systems, has been developed. Obtained results show the validity of our proposal for two large real-life datasets: BPI Challenge 2013 and IT Department of Andalusian Health Service (SAS).Ministerio de EconomĂa y Competitividad TIN2015-70560-RJunta de AndalucĂa P12TIC-186
The Market Fraction Hypothesis under different GP algorithms
In a previous work, inspired by observations made in many agent-based financial models, we formulated and presented the Market Fraction Hypothesis, which basically predicts a short duration for any dominant type of agents, but then a uniform distribution over all types in the long run. We then proposed a two-step approach, a rule-inference step and a rule-clustering step, to testing this hypothesis. We employed genetic programming as the rule inference engine, and applied self-organizing maps to cluster the inferred rules. We then ran tests for 10 international markets and provided a general examination of the plausibility of the hypothesis. However, because of the fact that the tests took place under a GP system, it could be argued that these results are dependent on the nature of the GP algorithm. This chapter thus serves as an extension to our previous work. We test the Market Fraction Hypothesis under two new different GP algorithms, in order to prove that the previous results are rigorous and are not sensitive to the choice of GP. We thus test again the hypothesis under the same 10 empirical datasets that were used in our previous experiments. Our work shows that certain parts of the hypothesis are indeed sensitive on the algorithm. Nevertheless, this sensitivity does not apply to all aspects of our tests. This therefore allows us to conclude that our previously derived results are rigorous and can thus be generalized
Connecting adaptive behaviour and expectations in models of innovation: The Potential Role of Artificial Neural Networks
In this methodological work I explore the possibility of explicitly modelling expectations conditioning the R&D decisions of firms. In order to isolate this problem from the controversies of cognitive science, I propose a black box strategy through the concept of “internal model”. The last part of the article uses artificial neural networks to model the expectations of firms in a model of industry dynamics based on Nelson & Winter (1982)
Forecasting Long-Term Government Bond Yields: An Application of Statistical and AI Models
This paper evaluates several artificial intelligence and classical algorithms on their ability of forecasting the monthly yield of the US 10-year Treasury bonds from a set of four economic indicators. Due to the complexity of the prediction problem, the task represents a challenging test for the algorithms under evaluation. At the same time, the study is of particular significance for the important and paradigmatic role played by the US market in the world economy. Four data-driven artificial intelligence approaches are considered, namely, a manually built fuzzy logic model, a machine learned fuzzy logic model, a self-organising map model and a multi-layer perceptron model. Their performance is compared with the performance of two classical approaches, namely, a statistical ARIMA model and an econometric error correction model. The algorithms are evaluated on a complete series of end-month US 10-year Treasury bonds yields and economic indicators from 1986:1 to 2004:12. In terms of prediction accuracy and reliability of the modelling procedure, the best results are obtained by the three parametric regression algorithms, namely the econometric, the statistical and the multi-layer perceptron model. Due to the sparseness of the learning data samples, the manual and the automatic fuzzy logic approaches fail to follow with adequate precision the range of variations of the US 10-year Treasury bonds. For similar reasons, the self-organising map model gives an unsatisfactory performance. Analysis of the results indicates that the econometric model has a slight edge over the statistical and the multi-layer perceptron models. This suggests that pure data-driven induction may not fully capture the complicated mechanisms ruling the changes in interest rates. Overall, the prediction accuracy of the best models is only marginally better than the prediction accuracy of a basic one-step lag predictor. This result highlights the difficulty of the modelling task and, in general, the difficulty of building reliable predictors for financial markets.interest rates; forecasting; neural networks; fuzzy logic.
Futures Studies in the Interactive Society
This book consists of papers which were prepared within the framework of the research project (No. T 048539) entitled Futures Studies in the Interactive Society (project leader: Éva Hideg) and funded by the Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (OTKA) between 2005 and 2009. Some discuss the theoretical and methodological questions of futures studies and foresight; others present new approaches to or
procedures of certain questions which are very important and topical from the perspective of forecast and foresight practice. Each study was conducted in pursuit of improvement in futures fields
Economic Dynamics, Contribution to the Encyclopedia of Nonlinear Science, Alwyn Scott (ed.), Routledge, 2004.
Contribution to the Encyclopedia of Nonlinear Science, Alwyn Scott (ed.), Routledge, 2005, pp.245-248.
Prediction of Emerging Technologies Based on Analysis of the U.S. Patent Citation Network
The network of patents connected by citations is an evolving graph, which
provides a representation of the innovation process. A patent citing another
implies that the cited patent reflects a piece of previously existing knowledge
that the citing patent builds upon. A methodology presented here (i) identifies
actual clusters of patents: i.e. technological branches, and (ii) gives
predictions about the temporal changes of the structure of the clusters. A
predictor, called the {citation vector}, is defined for characterizing
technological development to show how a patent cited by other patents belongs
to various industrial fields. The clustering technique adopted is able to
detect the new emerging recombinations, and predicts emerging new technology
clusters. The predictive ability of our new method is illustrated on the
example of USPTO subcategory 11, Agriculture, Food, Textiles. A cluster of
patents is determined based on citation data up to 1991, which shows
significant overlap of the class 442 formed at the beginning of 1997. These new
tools of predictive analytics could support policy decision making processes in
science and technology, and help formulate recommendations for action
Spatial interactions in agent-based modeling
Agent Based Modeling (ABM) has become a widespread approach to model complex
interactions. In this chapter after briefly summarizing some features of ABM
the different approaches in modeling spatial interactions are discussed.
It is stressed that agents can interact either indirectly through a shared
environment and/or directly with each other. In such an approach, higher-order
variables such as commodity prices, population dynamics or even institutions,
are not exogenously specified but instead are seen as the results of
interactions. It is highlighted in the chapter that the understanding of
patterns emerging from such spatial interaction between agents is a key problem
as much as their description through analytical or simulation means.
The chapter reviews different approaches for modeling agents' behavior,
taking into account either explicit spatial (lattice based) structures or
networks. Some emphasis is placed on recent ABM as applied to the description
of the dynamics of the geographical distribution of economic activities, - out
of equilibrium. The Eurace@Unibi Model, an agent-based macroeconomic model with
spatial structure, is used to illustrate the potential of such an approach for
spatial policy analysis.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figures, 105 references; a chapter prepared for the book
"Complexity and Geographical Economics - Topics and Tools", P. Commendatore,
S.S. Kayam and I. Kubin, Eds. (Springer, in press, 2014
Specification-Driven Predictive Business Process Monitoring
Predictive analysis in business process monitoring aims at forecasting the
future information of a running business process. The prediction is typically
made based on the model extracted from historical process execution logs (event
logs). In practice, different business domains might require different kinds of
predictions. Hence, it is important to have a means for properly specifying the
desired prediction tasks, and a mechanism to deal with these various prediction
tasks. Although there have been many studies in this area, they mostly focus on
a specific prediction task. This work introduces a language for specifying the
desired prediction tasks, and this language allows us to express various kinds
of prediction tasks. This work also presents a mechanism for automatically
creating the corresponding prediction model based on the given specification.
Differently from previous studies, instead of focusing on a particular
prediction task, we present an approach to deal with various prediction tasks
based on the given specification of the desired prediction tasks. We also
provide an implementation of the approach which is used to conduct experiments
using real-life event logs.Comment: This article significantly extends the previous work in
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91704-7_7 which has a technical report in
arXiv:1804.00617. This article and the previous work have a coauthor in
commo
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