158,085 research outputs found
The e-mail game revisited - Modeling rough inductive reasoning
I study the robustness of Rubinstein´s (1989) E-Mail Game results towards rough inductive reasoning. Rough induction is a form of boundedly rational reasoning where a player does not carry out every inductive step. The information structure in the E-Mail game is generalized and the conditions are characterized under which Rubinstein´s results hold. Rough induction generates a payoff dominant equilibrium where the expected payoffs change continously in the probability of "faulty" communication. The article follows one of Morris´(2001a) reactions to the E-Mail game "that one should try to come up with a model of boundedly rational behavior that delivers predictions that are insensitive to whether there is common knowledge or a large number of levels of knowledge".
Analysing imperfect temporal information in GIS using the Triangular Model
Rough set and fuzzy set are two frequently used approaches for modelling and reasoning about imperfect time intervals. In this paper, we focus on imperfect time intervals that can be modelled by rough sets and use an innovative graphic model [i.e. the triangular model (TM)] to represent this kind of imperfect time intervals. This work shows that TM is potentially advantageous in visualizing and querying imperfect time intervals, and its analytical power can be better exploited when it is implemented in a computer application with graphical user interfaces and interactive functions. Moreover, a probabilistic framework is proposed to handle the uncertainty issues in temporal queries. We use a case study to illustrate how the unique insights gained by TM can assist a geographical information system for exploratory spatio-temporal analysis
Elementary School Children's Understanding of Experimental Error
Provides pedagogical insight concerning the skill of experimental error The resource being annotated is: http://www.dlese.org/dds/catalog_DLESE-000-000-008-659.htm
Explicit tracking of uncertainty increases the power of quantitative rule-of-thumb reasoning in cell biology
"Back-of-the-envelope" or "rule-of-thumb" calculations involving rough
estimates of quantities play a central scientific role in developing intuition
about the structure and behaviour of physical systems, for example in so-called
`Fermi problems' in the physical sciences. Such calculations can be used to
powerfully and quantitatively reason about biological systems, particularly at
the interface between physics and biology. However, substantial uncertainties
are often associated with values in cell biology, and performing calculations
without taking this uncertainty into account may limit the extent to which
results can be interpreted for a given problem. We present a means to
facilitate such calculations where uncertainties are explicitly tracked through
the line of reasoning, and introduce a `probabilistic calculator' called
Caladis, a web tool freely available at www.caladis.org, designed to perform
this tracking. This approach allows users to perform more statistically robust
calculations in cell biology despite having uncertain values, and to identify
which quantities need to be measured more precisely in order to make confident
statements, facilitating efficient experimental design. We illustrate the use
of our tool for tracking uncertainty in several example biological
calculations, showing that the results yield powerful and interpretable
statistics on the quantities of interest. We also demonstrate that the outcomes
of calculations may differ from point estimates when uncertainty is accurately
tracked. An integral link between Caladis and the Bionumbers repository of
biological quantities further facilitates the straightforward location,
selection, and use of a wealth of experimental data in cell biological
calculations.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure
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