Robust Model Predictive Control via Scenario Optimization

This paper discusses a novel probabilistic approach for the design of robust model predictive control (MPC) laws for discrete-time linear systems affected by parametric uncertainty and additive disturbances. The proposed technique is based on the iterated solution, at each step, of a finite-horizon optimal control problem (FHOCP) that takes into account a suitable number of randomly extracted scenarios of uncertainty and disturbances, followed by a specific command selection rule implemented in a receding horizon fashion. The scenario FHOCP is always convex, also when the uncertain parameters and disturbance belong to non-convex sets, and irrespective of how the model uncertainty influences the system's matrices. Moreover, the computational complexity of the proposed approach does not depend on the uncertainty/disturbance dimensions, and scales quadratically with the control horizon. The main result in this paper is related to the analysis of the closed loop system under receding-horizon implementation of the scenario FHOCP, and essentially states that the devised control law guarantees constraint satisfaction at each step with some a-priori assigned probability p, while the system's state reaches the target set either asymptotically, or in finite time with probability at least p. The proposed method may be a valid alternative when other existing techniques, either deterministic or stochastic, are not directly usable due to excessive conservatism or to numerical intractability caused by lack of convexity of the robust or chance-constrained optimization problem.Comment: This manuscript is a preprint of a paper accepted for publication in the IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, with DOI: 10.1109/TAC.2012.2203054, and is subject to IEEE copyright. The copy of record will be available at http://ieeexplore.ieee.or

Stability for Receding-horizon Stochastic Model Predictive Control

A stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) approach is presented for discrete-time linear systems with arbitrary time-invariant probabilistic uncertainties and additive Gaussian process noise. Closed-loop stability of the SMPC approach is established by appropriate selection of the cost function. Polynomial chaos is used for uncertainty propagation through system dynamics. The performance of the SMPC approach is demonstrated using the Van de Vusse reactions.Comment: American Control Conference (ACC) 201

Stochastic model predictive control of LPV systems via scenario optimization

A stochastic receding-horizon control approach for constrained Linear Parameter Varying discrete-time systems is proposed in this paper. It is assumed that the time-varying parameters have stochastic nature and that the system's matrices are bounded but otherwise arbitrary nonlinear functions of these parameters. No specific assumption on the statistics of the parameters is required. By using a randomization approach, a scenario-based finite-horizon optimal control problem is formulated, where only a finite number M of sampled predicted parameter trajectories (‘scenarios') are considered. This problem is convex and its solution is a priori guaranteed to be probabilistically robust, up to a user-defined probability level p. The p level is linked to M by an analytic relationship, which establishes a tradeoff between computational complexity and robustness of the solution. Then, a receding horizon strategy is presented, involving the iterated solution of a scenario-based finite-horizon control problem at each time step. Our key result is to show that the state trajectories of the controlled system reach a terminal positively invariant set in finite time, either deterministically, or with probability no smaller than p. The features of the approach are illustrated by a numerical example

On the Sample Size of Random Convex Programs with Structured Dependence on the Uncertainty (Extended Version)

The "scenario approach" provides an intuitive method to address chance constrained problems arising in control design for uncertain systems. It addresses these problems by replacing the chance constraint with a finite number of sampled constraints (scenarios). The sample size critically depends on Helly's dimension, a quantity always upper bounded by the number of decision variables. However, this standard bound can lead to computationally expensive programs whose solutions are conservative in terms of cost and violation probability. We derive improved bounds of Helly's dimension for problems where the chance constraint has certain structural properties. The improved bounds lower the number of scenarios required for these problems, leading both to improved objective value and reduced computational complexity. Our results are generally applicable to Randomized Model Predictive Control of chance constrained linear systems with additive uncertainty and affine disturbance feedback. The efficacy of the proposed bound is demonstrated on an inventory management example.Comment: Accepted for publication at Automatic

Learning-based predictive control for linear systems: a unitary approach

A comprehensive approach addressing identification and control for learningbased Model Predictive Control (MPC) for linear systems is presented. The design technique yields a data-driven MPC law, based on a dataset collected from the working plant. The method is indirect, i.e. it relies on a model learning phase and a model-based control design one, devised in an integrated manner. In the model learning phase, a twofold outcome is achieved: first, different optimal p-steps ahead prediction models are obtained, to be used in the MPC cost function; secondly, a perturbed state-space model is derived, to be used for robust constraint satisfaction. Resorting to Set Membership techniques, a characterization of the bounded model uncertainties is obtained, which is a key feature for a successful application of the robust control algorithm. In the control design phase, a robust MPC law is proposed, able to track piece-wise constant reference signals, with guaranteed recursive feasibility and convergence properties. The controller embeds multistep predictors in the cost function, it ensures robust constraints satisfaction thanks to the learnt uncertainty model, and it can deal with possibly unfeasible reference values. The proposed approach is finally tested in a numerical example

Stochastic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with Efficient Sample Approximation of Chance Constraints

This paper presents a stochastic model predictive control approach for nonlinear systems subject to time-invariant probabilistic uncertainties in model parameters and initial conditions. The stochastic optimal control problem entails a cost function in terms of expected values and higher moments of the states, and chance constraints that ensure probabilistic constraint satisfaction. The generalized polynomial chaos framework is used to propagate the time-invariant stochastic uncertainties through the nonlinear system dynamics, and to efficiently sample from the probability densities of the states to approximate the satisfaction probability of the chance constraints. To increase computational efficiency by avoiding excessive sampling, a statistical analysis is proposed to systematically determine a-priori the least conservative constraint tightening required at a given sample size to guarantee a desired feasibility probability of the sample-approximated chance constraint optimization problem. In addition, a method is presented for sample-based approximation of the analytic gradients of the chance constraints, which increases the optimization efficiency significantly. The proposed stochastic nonlinear model predictive control approach is applicable to a broad class of nonlinear systems with the sufficient condition that each term is analytic with respect to the states, and separable with respect to the inputs, states and parameters. The closed-loop performance of the proposed approach is evaluated using the Williams-Otto reactor with seven states, and ten uncertain parameters and initial conditions. The results demonstrate the efficiency of the approach for real-time stochastic model predictive control and its capability to systematically account for probabilistic uncertainties in contrast to a nonlinear model predictive control approaches.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Process Contro