Distribution of Mutual Information from Complete and Incomplete Data

Mutual information is widely used, in a descriptive way, to measure the stochastic dependence of categorical random variables. In order to address questions such as the reliability of the descriptive value, one must consider sample-to-population inferential approaches. This paper deals with the posterior distribution of mutual information, as obtained in a Bayesian framework by a second-order Dirichlet prior distribution. The exact analytical expression for the mean, and analytical approximations for the variance, skewness and kurtosis are derived. These approximations have a guaranteed accuracy level of the order O(1/n^3), where n is the sample size. Leading order approximations for the mean and the variance are derived in the case of incomplete samples. The derived analytical expressions allow the distribution of mutual information to be approximated reliably and quickly. In fact, the derived expressions can be computed with the same order of complexity needed for descriptive mutual information. This makes the distribution of mutual information become a concrete alternative to descriptive mutual information in many applications which would benefit from moving to the inductive side. Some of these prospective applications are discussed, and one of them, namely feature selection, is shown to perform significantly better when inductive mutual information is used.Comment: 26 pages, LaTeX, 5 figures, 4 table

Updating beliefs with incomplete observations

Currently, there is renewed interest in the problem, raised by Shafer in 1985, of updating probabilities when observations are incomplete. This is a fundamental problem in general, and of particular interest for Bayesian networks. Recently, Grunwald and Halpern have shown that commonly used updating strategies fail in this case, except under very special assumptions. In this paper we propose a new method for updating probabilities with incomplete observations. Our approach is deliberately conservative: we make no assumptions about the so-called incompleteness mechanism that associates complete with incomplete observations. We model our ignorance about this mechanism by a vacuous lower prevision, a tool from the theory of imprecise probabilities, and we use only coherence arguments to turn prior into posterior probabilities. In general, this new approach to updating produces lower and upper posterior probabilities and expectations, as well as partially determinate decisions. This is a logical consequence of the existing ignorance about the incompleteness mechanism. We apply the new approach to the problem of classification of new evidence in probabilistic expert systems, where it leads to a new, so-called conservative updating rule. In the special case of Bayesian networks constructed using expert knowledge, we provide an exact algorithm for classification based on our updating rule, which has linear-time complexity for a class of networks wider than polytrees. This result is then extended to the more general framework of credal networks, where computations are often much harder than with Bayesian nets. Using an example, we show that our rule appears to provide a solid basis for reliable updating with incomplete observations, when no strong assumptions about the incompleteness mechanism are justified.Comment: Replaced with extended versio

Robust Feature Selection by Mutual Information Distributions

Mutual information is widely used in artificial intelligence, in a descriptive way, to measure the stochastic dependence of discrete random variables. In order to address questions such as the reliability of the empirical value, one must consider sample-to-population inferential approaches. This paper deals with the distribution of mutual information, as obtained in a Bayesian framework by a second-order Dirichlet prior distribution. The exact analytical expression for the mean and an analytical approximation of the variance are reported. Asymptotic approximations of the distribution are proposed. The results are applied to the problem of selecting features for incremental learning and classification of the naive Bayes classifier. A fast, newly defined method is shown to outperform the traditional approach based on empirical mutual information on a number of real data sets. Finally, a theoretical development is reported that allows one to efficiently extend the above methods to incomplete samples in an easy and effective way.Comment: 8 two-column page

Eight-Dimensional Mid-Infrared/Optical Bayesian Quasar Selection

We explore the multidimensional, multiwavelength selection of quasars from mid-IR (MIR) plus optical data, specifically from Spitzer-IRAC and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We apply modern statistical techniques to combined Spitzer MIR and SDSS optical data, allowing up to 8-D color selection of quasars. Using a Bayesian selection method, we catalog 5546 quasar candidates to an 8.0 um depth of 56 uJy over an area of ~24 sq. deg; ~70% of these candidates are not identified by applying the same Bayesian algorithm to 4-color SDSS optical data alone. Our selection recovers 97.7% of known type 1 quasars in this area and greatly improves the effectiveness of identifying 3.5<z<5 quasars. Even using only the two shortest wavelength IRAC bandpasses, it is possible to use our Bayesian techniques to select quasars with 97% completeness and as little as 10% contamination. This sample has a photometric redshift accuracy of 93.6% (Delta Z +/-0.3), remaining roughly constant when the two reddest MIR bands are excluded. While our methods are designed to find type 1 (unobscured) quasars, as many as 1200 of the objects are type 2 (obscured) quasar candidates. Coupling deep optical imaging data with deep mid-IR data could enable selection of quasars in significant numbers past the peak of the quasar luminosity function (QLF) to at least z~4. Such a sample would constrain the shape of the QLF and enable quasar clustering studies over the largest range of redshift and luminosity to date, yielding significant gains in our understanding of quasars and the evolution of galaxies.Comment: 49 pages, 14 figures, 7 tables. AJ, accepte

Imputation Estimators Partially Correct for Model Misspecification

Inference problems with incomplete observations often aim at estimating population properties of unobserved quantities. One simple way to accomplish this estimation is to impute the unobserved quantities of interest at the individual level and then take an empirical average of the imputed values. We show that this simple imputation estimator can provide partial protection against model misspecification. We illustrate imputation estimators' robustness to model specification on three examples: mixture model-based clustering, estimation of genotype frequencies in population genetics, and estimation of Markovian evolutionary distances. In the final example, using a representative model misspecification, we demonstrate that in non-degenerate cases, the imputation estimator dominates the plug-in estimate asymptotically. We conclude by outlining a Bayesian implementation of the imputation-based estimation.Comment: major rewrite, beta-binomial example removed, model based clustering is added to the mixture model example, Bayesian approach is now illustrated with the genetics exampl

Optimization and Abstraction: A Synergistic Approach for Analyzing Neural Network Robustness

In recent years, the notion of local robustness (or robustness for short) has emerged as a desirable property of deep neural networks. Intuitively, robustness means that small perturbations to an input do not cause the network to perform misclassifications. In this paper, we present a novel algorithm for verifying robustness properties of neural networks. Our method synergistically combines gradient-based optimization methods for counterexample search with abstraction-based proof search to obtain a sound and ({\delta}-)complete decision procedure. Our method also employs a data-driven approach to learn a verification policy that guides abstract interpretation during proof search. We have implemented the proposed approach in a tool called Charon and experimentally evaluated it on hundreds of benchmarks. Our experiments show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms three state-of-the-art tools, namely AI^2 , Reluplex, and Reluval