A Survey of Monte Carlo Tree Search Methods

Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) is a recently proposed search method that combines the precision of tree search with the generality of random sampling. It has received considerable interest due to its spectacular success in the difficult problem of computer Go, but has also proved beneficial in a range of other domains. This paper is a survey of the literature to date, intended to provide a snapshot of the state of the art after the first five years of MCTS research. We outline the core algorithm's derivation, impart some structure on the many variations and enhancements that have been proposed, and summarize the results from the key game and nongame domains to which MCTS methods have been applied. A number of open research questions indicate that the field is ripe for future work

Stock Picking via Nonsymmetrically Pruned Binary Decision Trees

Stock picking is the field of financial analysis that is of particular interest for many professional investors and researchers. In this study stock picking is implemented via binary classification trees. Optimal tree size is believed to be the crucial factor in forecasting performance of the trees. While there exists a standard method of tree pruning, which is based on the cost-complexity tradeoff and used in the majority of studies employing binary decision trees, this paper introduces a novel methodology of nonsymmetric tree pruning called Best Node Strategy (BNS). An important property of BNS is proven that provides an easy way to implement the search of the optimal tree size in practice. BNS is compared with the traditional pruning approach by composing two recursive portfolios out of XETRA DAX stocks. Performance forecasts for each of the stocks are provided by constructed decision trees. It is shown that BNS clearly outperforms the traditional approach according to the backtesting results and the Diebold-Mariano test for statistical significance of the performance difference between two forecasting methods.decision tree, stock picking, pruning, earnings forecasting, data mining

GAMES: A new Scenario for Software and Knowledge Reuse

Games are a well-known test bed for testing search algorithms and learning methods, and many authors have presented numerous reasons for the research in this area. Nevertheless, they have not received the attention they deserve as software projects. In this paper, we analyze the applicability of software and knowledge reuse in the games domain. In spite of the need to find a good evaluation function, search algorithms and interface design can be said to be the primary concerns. In addition, we will discuss the current state of the main statistical learning methods and how they can be addressed from a software engineering point of view. So, this paper proposes a reliable environment and adequate tools, necessary in order to achieve high levels of reuse in the games domain

Estimating Private Incentives for Wildfire Risk Mitigation: Determinants of Demands for Different Fire-Safe Actions

In this article we develop a general conceptual model of a property-owner’s decision to implement actions to protect his property against wildfire threat. Assuming a prospective-utility maximizing decision maker, we derive a system of demand functions for fire-safe actions that characterizes factors affecting individual decision making. We then empirically estimate the demands for various fire-safe actions functions using survey data of property owners facing a wildfire threat in Nevada. We find that the probability of individuals implementing some fire-safe action increases with value of the residence, previous experience with wildfire, the property being used as the primary residence, positive attitude towards wildfire management methods on public lands, and connectedness of community members. A lower probability of implementing fire-safe actions is found for those who value pristine nature and privacy that nature provides.Risk and Uncertainty,

Optimal Placement of Valves in a Water Distribution Network with CLP(FD)

This paper presents a new application of logic programming to a real-life problem in hydraulic engineering. The work is developed as a collaboration of computer scientists and hydraulic engineers, and applies Constraint Logic Programming to solve a hard combinatorial problem. This application deals with one aspect of the design of a water distribution network, i.e., the valve isolation system design. We take the formulation of the problem by Giustolisi and Savic (2008) and show how, thanks to constraint propagation, we can get better solutions than the best solution known in the literature for the Apulian distribution network. We believe that the area of the so-called hydroinformatics can benefit from the techniques developed in Constraint Logic Programming and possibly from other areas of logic programming, such as Answer Set Programming.Comment: Best paper award at the 27th International Conference on Logic Programming - ICLP 2011; Theory and Practice of Logic Programming, (ICLP'11) Special Issue, volume 11, issue 4-5, 201

Salve Regina Arboretum Ten Year Plan to Reach Level III Accreditation

The Salve Regina University Arboretum, located in Newport, Rhode Island is currently registered as a Level II arboretum and is intertwined with the city of Newport Arboretum. The university now has intentions to reach Level III status, as part of a ten-year plan. This plan was developed by the students of the Spring 2018 BIO 255: Conservation Biology course, instructed by Dr. Jameson Chace, Associate Professor of biology at Salve Regina University. As part of a curriculum geared towards civic engagement, the class focused on creating and optimizing strategies that can be applied to the ten-year plan. These strategies were applied to the plan categorically: a team to inventory the current tree collection; a team to develop formal educational programming; a team for informal educational programming; a team to establish goals for conservation initiative related to the arboretum; a team dedicated to research related to arboreta; and a team to develop a list of species of special interest to add to the arboretum in the coming years. In the following document, each team’s strategies for the ten-year plan are outlined. Each of the components of this plan incorporate means to fulfill the conditions to meet Level III arboretum status so that the arboretum can apply for official registration. The aforementioned teams were tasked with designing a foundation on which to work up from. This includes formal educational programming to be applied to classroom settings and informal educational programming which can be applied to community outreach-based settings. The teams that worked to strengthen the arboretum’s mission of conservation focused on researching trees that can fit into the current landscape while providing some sort of benefit to the surrounding flora/fauna. Further, many of the species of interest, such as the chestnut, hold historical value to the greater Rhode Island region. In all, the Salve Regina Arboretum must achieve a total of 500 unique species of trees and woody plants as part of its efforts to apply for Level III status. In addition to the programming and research performed so far by the student teams, the arboretum must also hire a curator to manage the programming and to oversee the arboretum as a whole. Additionally, the arboretum must continue to actively collaborate with other arboreta and should encourage scientific research. It is important to recognize that the Salve Regina University Arboretum has already been utilized in the field of microbiology and has gained some attention at the university as a resource for further research and investigation. This ten year plan, along with resources within in it, is designed to provide a list of potential guidelines and ideas that can be applied for the arboretum’s benefit and growth. The Salve Regina University arboretum is a continually growing and developing part of the greater Newport, Rhode Island community, and will continue to strengthen its mission and that of the university which oversees its success.https://digitalcommons.salve.edu/bio255_arboretum/1000/thumbnail.jp

Stewardship Plan for the 5 Corners Reserve, Lee, NH

The 20.7–acre Lee Five Corners Reserve (Reserve) is located north of Route 4 and west of Snell Road in the northern “Five Corners” region of Lee, New Hampshire. The property is accessed at the end of Old Concord Turnpike, which leads northwest from Snell Road near the intersection of Route 155 (Map 1). The gravel access road continues through the Five Corners Reserve and onto a Town of Durham parcel that houses a public drinking water well. An iron gate that blocks public access to the Durham well site is located on the Five Corners Reserve. A small parking area is located along the east side of the access road, just before the gate