Negative Multiplicity: Forecasting the Future Impact of Emerging Technologies on International Stability and Human Security

We asked 30 experts to forecast the developmental trajectories of twelve emerging technologies in the United States, Russia, and China until 2040 and to score their possible future impact on arms race stability, crisis stability, and humanitarian principles. The results reveal that, on average, their impact is expected to be negative, with some technologies negatively affecting all three dependent variables. We used a machine learning algorithm to cluster the technologies according to their anticipated impact. This process identified technology clusters comprised of diverse high-impact technologies that share key impact characteristics but do not necessarily share technical characteristics. We refer to these combined effects as ‘negative multiplicity’, reflecting the predominantly negative, concurrent, and in some cases similar, first- and second-order effects that emerging technologies are expected to have on international stability and human security. The expected alignment of the technology development trajectories of the United States, Russia, and China by 2040, in combination with the negative environment created by geopolitical competition, points to a nascent technological arms race that threatens to seriously impede international arms control efforts to regulate emerging technologies

Application Possibilities of Decentralization and Blockchain Technology Using Computer Vision and Artificial Intelligence in Defense Management, Military and Police Organizations

Military science has faced new challenges at the end of the 20th century with the emergence of the Internet. Challenges and threats to traditional security got a new in-terpretation with a new concept of cybersecurity, which led to an organic transforma-tion of military engineering and IT. As the Internet has fundamentally changed the way the world works, new technologies have emerged on the network that can revolutionize the multitude of industries. Such innovation is Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) and Blockchain Technology supplemented with Artificial Intelligence and machine vision. The potential uses of the block chain represent a multitude of military technical scientific challenges. The technology makes it possible to co-operate freely with cryptographic pro-cedures on distributed networks without state control, but it can also serve military and defense management purposes

New Navy Fighting Machine in the South China Sea

Through the perspective of Hughes, Wayne P.' missile salvo equation, this research examined naval surface forces of the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the United States (U.S.) in order to demonstrate how American surface combatants can defeat PRC anti-access area denial (A2AD) measures in the South China Sea (SCS). Hughes' equation reveals that advantages for American surface forces are obtained by increasing fleet numbers, counter-targeting (CT), and increased scouting. This thesis advocates fleet growth as articulated in Hughes' New Navy Fighting Machine (NNFM) study. Comparisons of the NNFM, the U.S. fleet, and the PRC fleet demonstrate both the disparity facing the American surface forces, and the near parity obtained in the NNFM. CT through unmanned surface vehicles (USVs), and naval obscurants provide American surface forces increased staying power and tactical advantage. Scouting and communications networking through a theater wide constellation of airships provide the American fleet with persistent situational awareness of the battle space, tactical communications with subsurface forces, and improved emissions control (EMCON) measures for surface forces. The distributive properties of the NNFM, combined with this study's CT and scouting findings, offer American surface combatants success over the PRC Navy in the SCS scenario.http://archive.org/details/newnavyfightingm109457408Lieutenant, United States Navy,Lieutenant, United States Nav

Agent Based Simulation Seas Evaluation of DoDAF Architecture

With Department of Defense (DoD) weapon systems being deeply rooted in the command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) structure, it is necessary for combat models to capture C4ISR effects in order to properly assess military worth. Unlike many DoD legacy combat models, the agent based model System Effectiveness and Analysis Simulation (SEAS) is identified as having C4ISR analysis capabilities. In lieu of requirements for all new DoD C4ISR weapon systems to be placed within a DoD Architectural Framework (DoDAF), investigation of means to export data from the Framework to the combat model SEAS began. Through operational, system, and technical views, the DoDAF provides a consistent format for new weapon systems to be compared and evaluated. Little research has been conducted to show how to create an executable model of an actual DoD weapon system described by the DoDAF. In collaboration with Systems Engineering masters student Captain Andrew Zinn, this research identified the Aerospace Operation Center (AOC) weapon system architecture, provided by the MITRE Corp., as suitable for translation into SEAS. The collaborative efforts lead to the identification and translation of architectural data products to represent the Time Critical Targeting (TCT) activities of the AOC. A comparison of the AOC weapon system employing these TCT activities with an AOC without TCT capabilities is accomplished within a Kosovo-like engagement (provided by Space and Missile Center Transformations Directorate). Results show statistically significant differences in measures of effectiveness (MOEs) chosen to compare the systems. The comparison also identified the importance of data products not available in this incomplete architecture and makes recommendations for SEAS to be more receptive to DoDAF data products

An architectural selection framework for data fusion in sensor platforms

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, February 2007.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 97-100).The role of data fusion in sensor platforms is becoming increasingly important in various domains of science, technology and business. Fusion pertains to the merging or integration of information towards an enhanced level of awareness. This thesis provides a canonical overview of several major fusion architectures developed from the remote sensing and defense community. Additionally, it provides an assessment of current sensors and their platforms, the influence of reliability measures, and the connection to fusion applications. We present several types of architecture for managing multi-sensor data fusion, specifically as they relate to the tracking-correlation function and blackboard processing representations in knowledge engineering. Object-Process Methods are used to model the information fusion process and supporting systems. Several mathematical techniques are shown to be useful in the fusion of numerical properties, sensor data updating and the implementation of unique detection probabilities. Finally, we discuss the importance of fusion to the concept and operation of the Semantic Web, which promises new ways to exploit the synergy of multi-sensor data platforms. This requires the synthesis of fusion with ontology models for knowledge representation. We discuss the importance of fusion as a reuse process in ontological engineering, and review key lifecycle models in ontology development. The evolutionary approach to ontology development is considered the most useful and adaptable to the complexities of semantic networks. Several potential applications for data fusion are screened and ranked according to the Joint Directors of Laboratories (JDL) process model for information fusion. Based on these predetermined criteria, the case of medical diagnostic imaging was found to offer the most promising applications for fusion, on which future product platforms can be built.by Atif R. Mirza.S.M

Maritime threat response

This report was prepared by Systems Engineering and Analysis Cohort Nine (SEA-9) Maritime Threat Response, (MTR) team members.Background: The 2006 Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Cross-Campus Integrated Study, titled “Maritime Threat Response” involved the combined effort of 7 NPS Systems Engineering students, 7 Singaporean Temasek Defense Systems Institute (TDSI) students, 12 students from the Total Ship Systems Engineering (TSSE) curriculum, and numerous NPS faculty members from different NPS departments. After receiving tasking provided by the Wayne E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering at NPS in support of the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense, the study examined ways to validate intelligence and respond to maritime terrorist attacks against United States coastal harbors and ports. Through assessment of likely harbors and waterways to base the study upon, the San Francisco Bay was selected as a representative test-bed for the integrated study. The NPS Systems Engineering and Analysis Cohort 9 (SEA-9) Maritime Threat Response (MTR) team, in conjunction with the TDSI students, used the Systems Engineering Lifecycle Process (SELP) [shown in Figure ES-1, p. xxiii ] as a systems engineering framework to conduct the multi-disciplinary study. While not actually fabricating any hardware, such a process was well-suited for tailoring to the team’s research efforts and project focus. The SELP was an iterative process used to bound and scope the MTR problem, determine needs, requirements, functions, and to design architecture alternatives to satisfy stakeholder needs and desires. The SoS approach taken [shown in Figure ES-2, p. xxiv ]enabled the team to apply a systematic approach to problem definition, needs analysis, requirements, analysis, functional analysis, and then architecture development and assessment.In the twenty-first century, the threat of asymmetric warfare in the form of terrorism is one of the most likely direct threats to the United States homeland. It has been recognized that perhaps the key element in protecting the continental United States from terrorist threats is obtaining intelligence of impending attacks in advance. Enormous amounts of resources are currently allocated to obtaining and parsing such intelligence. However, it remains a difficult problem to deal with such attacks once intelligence is obtained. In this context, the Maritime Threat Response Project has applied Systems Engineering processes to propose different cost-effective System of Systems (SoS) architecture solutions to surface-based terrorist threats emanating from the maritime domain. The project applied a five-year time horizon to provide near-term solutions to the prospective decision makers and take maximum advantage of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) solutions and emphasize new Concepts of Operations (CONOPS) for existing systems. Results provided insight into requirements for interagency interactions in support of Maritime Security and demonstrated the criticality of timely and accurate intelligence in support of counterterror operations.This report was prepared for the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland DefenseApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Adding Executable Context to Executable Architectures: Enabling an Executable Context Simulation Framework (ECSF)

A system that does not stand alone is represented by a complex entity of component combinations that interact with each other to execute a function. In today\u27s interconnected world, systems integrate with other systems - called a system-of-systems infrastructure: a network of interrelated systems that can often exhibit both predictable and unpredictable behavior. The current state-of-the-art evaluation process of these system-of-systems and their community of practitioners in the academic community are limited to static methods focused on defining who is doing what and where. However, to answer the questions of why and how a system operates within complex systems-of-systems interrelationships, a system\u27s architecture and context must be observed over time, its executable architecture, to discern effective predictable and unpredictable behavior. The objective of this research is to determine a method for evaluating a system\u27s executable architecture and assess the contribution and efficiency of the specified system before it is built. This research led to the development of concrete steps that synthesize the observance of the executable architecture, assessment recommendations provided by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Code of Best Practice for Command and Control (C2) Assessment, and the metrics for operational efficiency provided by the Military Missions and Means Framework. Based on the research herein, this synthesis is designed to evaluate and assess system-of-systems architectures in their operational context to provide quantitative results

China Near Seas Combat Capabilities

The capstone U.S. Defense Department study on the future operational environment declares, China\u27s rise represents the most significant single event on the international horizon since the collapse of the Cold War. Understanding and assessing changes in China\u27s traditionally defensive naval strategy, doctrine, and force structure are of obvious importance to the U.S. Navy (USN) and other Pacific navies concerned with the possible security implications of that rise. This chapter examines the development of the Chinese navy\u27s Houbei (Type 022) fast-attack-craft force and its roles and missions in China\u27s near seas and discusses implications for the U.S. Navy and other navies in the region.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-red-books/1010/thumbnail.jp