Distributional logic programming for Bayesian knowledge representation

We present a formalism for combining logic programming and its flavour of nondeterminism with probabilistic reasoning. In particular, we focus on representing prior knowledge for Bayesian inference. Distributional logic programming (Dlp), is considered in the context of a class of generative probabilistic languages. A characterisation based on probabilistic paths which can play a central role in clausal probabilistic reasoning is presented. We illustrate how the characterisation can be utilised to clarify derived distributions with regards to mixing the logical and probabilistic constituents of generative languages. We use this operational characterisation to define a class of programs that exhibit probabilistic determinism. We show how Dlp can be used to define generative priors over statistical model spaces. For example, a single program can generate all possible Bayesian networks having N nodes while at the same time it defines a prior that penalises networks with large families. Two classes of statistical models are considered: Bayesian networks and classification and regression trees. Finally we discuss: (1) a Metropolis–Hastings algorithm that can take advantage of the defined priors and the probabilistic choice points in the prior programs and (2) its application to real-world machine learning tasks

Time-Aware Probabilistic Knowledge Graphs

The emergence of open information extraction as a tool for constructing and expanding knowledge graphs has aided the growth of temporal data, for instance, YAGO, NELL and Wikidata. While YAGO and Wikidata maintain the valid time of facts, NELL records the time point at which a fact is retrieved from some Web corpora. Collectively, these knowledge graphs (KG) store facts extracted from Wikipedia and other sources. Due to the imprecise nature of the extraction tools that are used to build and expand KG, such as NELL, the facts in the KG are weighted (a confidence value representing the correctness of a fact). Additionally, NELL can be considered as a transaction time KG because every fact is associated with extraction date. On the other hand, YAGO and Wikidata use the valid time model because they maintain facts together with their validity time (temporal scope). In this paper, we propose a bitemporal model (that combines transaction and valid time models) for maintaining and querying bitemporal probabilistic knowledge graphs. We study coalescing and scalability of marginal and MAP inference. Moreover, we show that complexity of reasoning tasks in atemporal probabilistic KG carry over to the bitemporal setting. Finally, we report our evaluation results of the proposed model

Reasoning with inconsistent knowledge using the epistemic approach to probabilistic argumentation

Structured argumentation involves drawing inferences from knowledge in order to construct arguments and counterarguments. Since knowledge can be uncertain, we can use a probabilistic approach to representing and reasoning with the knowledge. Individual arguments can be constructed from the knowledge, with the belief in each argument determined just from the belief in the formulae appearing in the argument. However, if the original knowledgebase is inconsistent, this does not take into account the counterarguments that can be constructed. We therefore need a wider perspective that revises the belief in individual arguments in order to take into account the counterarguments. To address this need, we present a framework for probabilistic argumentation that uses relaxation methods to give a coherent view on the knowledge, and thereby revises the belief in the arguments that are generated from the knowledge

Learning description logic axioms from discrete probability distributions over description graphs: Extended Version

Description logics in their standard setting only allow for representing and reasoning with crisp knowledge without any degree of uncertainty. Of course, this is a serious shortcoming for use cases where it is impossible to perfectly determine the truth of a statement. For resolving this expressivity restriction, probabilistic variants of description logics have been introduced. Their model-theoretic semantics is built upon so-called probabilistic interpretations, that is, families of directed graphs the vertices and edges of which are labeled and for which there exists a probability measure on this graph family. Results of scientific experiments, e.g., in medicine, psychology, or biology, that are repeated several times can induce probabilistic interpretations in a natural way. In this document, we shall develop a suitable axiomatization technique for deducing terminological knowledge from the assertional data given in such probabilistic interpretations. More specifically, we consider a probabilistic variant of the description logic EL⊥, and provide a method for constructing a set of rules, so-called concept inclusions, from probabilistic interpretations in a sound and complete manner

A software system for causal reasoning in causal Bayesian networks

Knowing the cause and effect is important to researchers who are interested in modeling the effects of actions. One commonly used method for modeling cause and effect is graphical model. Bayesian Network is a probabilistic graphical model for representing and reasoning uncertain knowledge. A common graphical causal model used by many researchers is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) with causal interpretation known as the causal Bayesian network (BN). Causal reasoning is the causal interpretation part of a causal Bayesian Network. They enable people to find meaningful order in events that might otherwise appear random and chaotic. Further more, they can even help people to plan and predict the future. We develop a software system, which is a set of tools to solve causal reasoning problems, such as to identify unconditional causal effects, to identify conditional causal effects and to find constraints in a causal Bayesian Networks with hidden variables

Modeling Players with Random "Data Access"

I present an approach to static equilibrium modeling with non-rational expectations, which is based on enriching players’ typology. A player is characterized by his “data access”, consisting of: (i) “news access”, which corresponds to a conventional signal in the Harsanyi model, and (ii) “archival access”, a novel component representing the player’s piecemeal knowledge of steady-state correlations. Drawing on prior literature on correlation neglect and coarse reasoning, I assume the player extrapolates a well-specified probabilistic belief from his “archival data” according to the maximum-entropy criterion. I show with a series of examples how this formalism extends our ability to represent and analyze strategic interactions without rational expectations