Prediction of fruit rot disease incidence in Arecanut based on weather parameters

Received: July 19th, 2022 ; Accepted: October 20th, 2022 ; Published: November 22nd, 2022 ; Correspondence: [email protected] occurrence of pests and diseases in arecanut crops has always been an important factor affecting the total production of arecanut. Arecanut is always dependent on environmental factors during its growth. Thus monitoring and early prediction of the occurrence of the disease would be very helpful for prevention and therefore more crop production. Here, we propose artificial intelligence-based deep learning models for fruit rot disease prediction. Historical data on fruit rot incidence in representative areas of arecanut production in Udupi along with historical weather data are the parameters used to develop region-specific models for the Udupi district. The fruit rot disease incidence score value is predicted using recurrent neural network variants (i.e., Vanilla LSTM, Vanilla GRU, stacked LSTM, and Bidirectional LSTM) for the first time. The predictive performance of the proposed models is evaluated by mean square error (MSE) along with the 5-fold cross-validation technique. Further, compared to other deep learning and machine learning models, the Vanilla LSTM model gives 1.5 MSE, while the Vanilla GRU model gives 1.3 MSE making it the best prediction model for arecanut fruit rot disease

Blood Glucose Forecasting using LSTM Variants under the Context of Open Source Artificial Pancreas System

High accuracy of blood glucose prediction over the long term is essential for preventative diabetes management. The emerging closed-loop insulin delivery system such as the artificial pancreas system (APS) provides opportunities for improved glycaemic control for patients with type 1 diabetes. Existing blood glucose studies are proven effective only within 30 minutes but the accuracy deteriorates drastically when the prediction horizon increases to 45 minutes and 60 minutes. Deep learning, especially for long short term memory (LSTM) and its variants have recently been applied in various areas to achieve state-of-the-art results in tasks with complex time series data. In this study, we present deep LSTM based models that are capable of forecasting long term blood glucose levels with improved prediction and clinical accuracy. We evaluate our approach using 20 cases(878,000 glucose values) from Open Source Artificial Pancreas System (OpenAPS). On 30-minutes and 45-minutes prediction, our Stacked-LSTM achieved the best performance with Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) marks 11.96 & 15.81 and Clark-Grid-ZoneA marks 0.887 & 0.784. In terms of 60-minutes prediction, our ConvLSTM has the best performance with RMSE = 19.6 and Clark-Grid-ZoneA=0.714. Our models outperform existing methods in both prediction and clinical accuracy. This research can hopefully support patients with type 1 diabetes to better manage their behavior in a more preventative way and can be used in future real APS context

Towards a Taxonomic Benchmarking Framework for Predictive Maintenance: The Case of NASA’s Turbofan Degradation

The availability of datasets for analytical solution development is a common bottleneck in data-driven predictive maintenance. Therefore, novel solutions are mostly based on synthetic benchmarking examples, such as NASA’s C-MAPSS datasets, where researchers from various disciplines like artificial intelligence and statistics apply and test their methodical approaches. The majority of studies, however, only evaluate the overall solution against a final prediction score, where we argue that a more fine-grained consideration is required distinguishing between detailed method components to measure their particular impact along the prognostic development process. To address this issue, we first conduct a literature review resulting in more than one hundred studies using the C-MAPSS datasets. Subsequently, we apply a taxonomy approach to receive dimensions and characteristics that decompose complex analytical solutions into more manageable components. The result is a first draft of a systematic benchmarking framework as a more comparable basis for future development and evaluation purposes

Anomaly detection using Long Short Term Memory Networks and its applications in Supply Chain Management

International audienceAnomaly detection has been becoming an important problem in several domains. In this paper, we propose a new method to detect anomalies in time series based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks. After being trained on normal data, the networks are used to predict interested steps in time series. The difference between the predicted values and observed values is calculated as prediction errors. Then we use a kernel estimator of the quantile function to compute a threshold, which is used to determine anomalous observations. The performance of proposed method is illustrated through an example of anomaly detection of consumer demand in supply chain management. The numerical experiment shows that our approach achieve a higher level of detection accuracy and a lower percentage of false alarm rate compared to the previous One-Class Support Vector Machine method

Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Prognostics and Health Management of Lithium-Ion Batteries

For Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) of Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries, many models have been established to characterize their degradation process. The existing empirical or physical models can reveal important information regarding the degradation dynamics. However, there are no general and flexible methods to fuse the information represented by those models. Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) is an efficient tool to fuse empirical or physical dynamic models with data-driven models. To take full advantage of various information sources, we propose a model fusion scheme based on PINN. It is implemented by developing a semi-empirical semi-physical Partial Differential Equation (PDE) to model the degradation dynamics of Li-ion batteries. When there is little prior knowledge about the dynamics, we leverage the data-driven Deep Hidden Physics Model (DeepHPM) to discover the underlying governing dynamic models. The uncovered dynamics information is then fused with that mined by the surrogate neural network in the PINN framework. Moreover, an uncertainty-based adaptive weighting method is employed to balance the multiple learning tasks when training the PINN. The proposed methods are verified on a public dataset of Li-ion Phosphate (LFP)/graphite batteries.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figure