A non-Gaussian continuous state space model for asset degradation

The degradation model plays an essential role in asset life prediction and condition based maintenance. Various degradation models have been proposed. Within these models, the state space model has the ability to combine degradation data and failure event data. The state space model is also an effective approach to deal with the multiple observations and missing data issues. Using the state space degradation model, the deterioration process of assets is presented by a system state process which can be revealed by a sequence of observations. Current research largely assumes that the underlying system development process is discrete in time or states. Although some models have been developed to consider continuous time and space, these state space models are based on the Wiener process with the Gaussian assumption. This paper proposes a Gamma-based state space degradation model in order to remove the Gaussian assumption. Both condition monitoring observations and failure events are considered in the model so as to improve the accuracy of asset life prediction. A simulation study is carried out to illustrate the application procedure of the proposed model

Model migration neural network for predicting battery aging trajectories

Accurate prediction of batteries’ future degradation is a key solution to relief users’ anxiety on battery lifespan and electric vehicle’s driving range. Technical challenges arise from the highly nonlinear dynamics of battery aging. In this paper, a feed-forward migration neural network is proposed to predict the batteries’ aging trajectories. Specifically, a base model that describes the capacity decay over time is first established from the existed battery aging dataset. This base model is then transformed by an input-output slope-and-bias-correction (SBC) method structure to capture the degradation of target cell. To enhance the model’s nonlinear transfer capability, the SBC-model is further integrated into a four-layer neural network, and easily trained via the gradient correlation algorithm. The proposed migration neural network is experimentally verified with four different commercial batteries. The predicted RMSEs are all lower than 2.5% when using only the first 30% of aging trajectories for neural network training. In addition, illustrative results demonstrate that a small size feed-forward neural network (down to 1-5-5-1) is sufficient for battery aging trajectory prediction

A practical degradation based method to predict long-term moisture incursion and colour change in high power LEDs

The effect of relative humidity on LEDs and how the moisture incursion is associated to the color shift is studied. This paper proposes a different approach to describe the lumen degradation of LEDs due to the long-term effects of humidity. Using the lumen degradation data of different types of LEDs under varying conditions of relative humidity, a humidity based degradation model (HBDM) is developed. A practical estimation method from the degradation behaviour is proposed to quantitatively gauge the effect of moisture incursion by means of a humidity index. This index demonstrates a high correlation with the color shift indicated by the LED's yellow to blue output intensity ratio. Physical analyses of the LEDs provide a qualitative validation of the model, which provides good accuracy with longer periods of moisture exposure. The results demonstrate that the HBDM is an effective indicator to predict the extent of the long-term impact of humidity and associated relative color shift

A rest time-based prognostic framework for state of health estimation of lithium-ion batteries with regeneration phenomena

State of health (SOH) prognostics is significant for safe and reliable usage of lithium-ion batteries. To accurately predict regeneration phenomena and improve long-term prediction performance of battery SOH, this paper proposes a rest time-based prognostic framework (RTPF) in which the beginning time interval of two adjacent cycles is adopted to reflect the rest time. In this framework, SOH values of regeneration cycles, the number of cycles in regeneration regions and global degradation trends are extracted from raw SOH time series and predicted respectively, and then the three sets of prediction results are integrated to calculate the final overall SOH prediction values. Regeneration phenomena can be found by support vector machine and hyperplane shift (SVM-HS) model by detecting long beginning time intervals. Gaussian process (GP) model is utilized to predict the global degradation trend, and nonlinear models are utilized to predict the regeneration amplitude and the cycle number of each regeneration region. The proposed framework is validated through experimental data from the degradation tests of lithium-ion batteries. The results demonstrate that both the global degradation trend and the regeneration phenomena of the testing batteries can be well predicted. Moreover, compared with the published methods, more accurate SOH prediction results can be obtained under this framewor

Degradation Modeling and RUL Prediction Using Wiener Process Subject to Multiple Change Points and Unit Heterogeneity

Degradation modeling is critical for health condition monitoring and remaining useful life prediction (RUL). The prognostic accuracy highly depends on the capability of modeling the evolution of degradation signals. In many practical applications, however, the degradation signals show multiple phases, where the conventional degradation models are often inadequate. To better characterize the degradation signals of multiple-phase characteristics, we propose a multiple change-point Wiener process as a degradation model. To take into account the between-unit heterogeneity, a fully Bayesian approach is developed where all model parameters are assumed random. At the offline stage, an empirical two-stage process is proposed for model estimation, and a cross-validation approach is adopted for model selection. At the online stage, an exact recursive model updating algorithm is developed for online individual model estimation, and an effective Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed for RUL prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through thorough simulation studies and real case study

Computational intelligence-based prognosis for hybrid mechatronic system using improved Wiener process

In this article, a fast krill herd algorithm is developed for prognosis of hybrid mechatronic system using the improved Wiener degradation process. First, the diagnostic hybrid bond graph is used to model the hybrid mechatronic system and derive global analytical redundancy relations. Based on the global analytical redundancy relations, the fault signature matrix and mode change signature matrix for fault and mode change isolation can be obtained. Second, in order to determine the true faults from the suspected fault candidates after fault isolation, a fault estimation method based on adaptive square root cubature Kalman filter is proposed when the noise distributions are unknown. Then, the improved Wiener process incorporating nonlinear term is developed to build the degradation model of incipient fault based on the fault estimation results. For prognosis, the fast krill herd algorithm is proposed to estimate unknown degradation model coefficients. After that, the probability density function of remaining useful life is derived using the identified degradation model. Finally, the proposed methods are validated by simulations