Active Learning based on Data Uncertainty and Model Sensitivity

Robots can rapidly acquire new skills from demonstrations. However, during generalisation of skills or transitioning across fundamentally different skills, it is unclear whether the robot has the necessary knowledge to perform the task. Failing to detect missing information often leads to abrupt movements or to collisions with the environment. Active learning can quantify the uncertainty of performing the task and, in general, locate regions of missing information. We introduce a novel algorithm for active learning and demonstrate its utility for generating smooth trajectories. Our approach is based on deep generative models and metric learning in latent spaces. It relies on the Jacobian of the likelihood to detect non-smooth transitions in the latent space, i.e., transitions that lead to abrupt changes in the movement of the robot. When non-smooth transitions are detected, our algorithm asks for an additional demonstration from that specific region. The newly acquired knowledge modifies the data manifold and allows for learning a latent representation for generating smooth movements. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on generalising elementary skills, transitioning across different skills, and implicitly avoiding collisions with the environment. For our experiments, we use a simulated pendulum where we observe its motion from images and a 7-DoF anthropomorphic arm.Comment: Published on 2018 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Syste

Variational Sequential Monte Carlo

Many recent advances in large scale probabilistic inference rely on variational methods. The success of variational approaches depends on (i) formulating a flexible parametric family of distributions, and (ii) optimizing the parameters to find the member of this family that most closely approximates the exact posterior. In this paper we present a new approximating family of distributions, the variational sequential Monte Carlo (VSMC) family, and show how to optimize it in variational inference. VSMC melds variational inference (VI) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), providing practitioners with flexible, accurate, and powerful Bayesian inference. The VSMC family is a variational family that can approximate the posterior arbitrarily well, while still allowing for efficient optimization of its parameters. We demonstrate its utility on state space models, stochastic volatility models for financial data, and deep Markov models of brain neural circuits

Density Deconvolution with Normalizing Flows

Density deconvolution is the task of estimating a probability density function given only noise-corrupted samples. We can fit a Gaussian mixture model to the underlying density by maximum likelihood if the noise is normally distributed, but would like to exploit the superior density estimation performance of normalizing flows and allow for arbitrary noise distributions. Since both adjustments lead to an intractable likelihood, we resort to amortized variational inference. We demonstrate some problems involved in this approach, however, experiments on real data demonstrate that flows can already out-perform Gaussian mixtures for density deconvolution.Comment: Appearing at the second workshop on Invertible Neural Networks, Normalizing Flows, and Explicit Likelihood Models (ICML 2020), Virtual Conference. 8 pages, 6 figures, 5 table

Leveraging the Exact Likelihood of Deep Latent Variable Models

Deep latent variable models (DLVMs) combine the approximation abilities of deep neural networks and the statistical foundations of generative models. Variational methods are commonly used for inference; however, the exact likelihood of these models has been largely overlooked. The purpose of this work is to study the general properties of this quantity and to show how they can be leveraged in practice. We focus on important inferential problems that rely on the likelihood: estimation and missing data imputation. First, we investigate maximum likelihood estimation for DLVMs: in particular, we show that most unconstrained models used for continuous data have an unbounded likelihood function. This problematic behaviour is demonstrated to be a source of mode collapse. We also show how to ensure the existence of maximum likelihood estimates, and draw useful connections with nonparametric mixture models. Finally, we describe an algorithm for missing data imputation using the exact conditional likelihood of a deep latent variable model. On several data sets, our algorithm consistently and significantly outperforms the usual imputation scheme used for DLVMs