Market Concentration Implications of Foundation Models

We analyze the structure of the market for foundation models, i.e., large AI models such as those that power ChatGPT and that are adaptable to downstream uses, and we examine the implications for competition policy and regulation. We observe that the most capable models will have a tendency towards natural monopoly and may have potentially vast markets. This calls for a two-pronged regulatory response: (i) Antitrust authorities need to ensure the contestability of the market by tackling strategic behavior, in particular by ensuring that monopolies do not propagate vertically to downstream uses, and (ii) given the diminished potential for market discipline, there is a role for regulators to ensure that the most capable models meet sufficient quality standards (including safety, privacy, non-discrimination, reliability and interoperability standards) to maximally contribute to social welfare. Regulators should also ensure a level regulatory playing field between AI and non-AI applications in all sectors of the economy. For models that are behind the frontier, we expect competition to be quite intense, implying a more limited role for competition policy, although a role for regulation remains.Comment: Working Pape

Containing systemic risk : paradigm-based perspectives on regulatory reform

Financial crises can happen for a variety of reasons: (a) nobody really understands what is going on (the collective cognition paradigm); (b) some understand better than others and take advantage of their knowledge (the asymmetric information paradigm); (c) everybody understands, but crises are a natural part of the financial landscape (the costly enforcement paradigm); or (d) everybody understands, yet no one acts because private and social interests do not coincide (the collective action paradigm). The four paradigms have different and often conflicting prudential policy implications. This paper proposes and discusses three sets of reforms that would give due weight to the insights from the collective action and collective cognition paradigms by redrawing the regulatory perimeter to internalize systemic risk without promoting dynamic regulatory arbitrage; introducing a truly systemic liquidity regulation that moves away from a purely idiosyncratic focus on maturity mismatches; and building up the supervisory function while avoiding the pitfalls of expanded official oversight.Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Financial Intermediation,Banks&Banking Reform,Labor Policies

Key Findings of the NTM-IMPACT Project

This special issue of The World Economy presents research findings from the European Commission–funded project “Assessment of the impacts of non-tariff measures (NTM)—on the competitiveness of the EU and selected trade partners” (NTM-Impact). Directed toward the EU and its trade partners, the project’s first overall objective was to collect and analyze new data on NTMs for key and representative agri-food products. This involved three components: creating a large symmetric international database on the diverse types of governmental standards and regulations used to address food safety and quality issues, constructing measures of heterogeneity among these standards and regulations; and evaluating the effects of the heterogeneity of NTMs on agri-food trade. The second overall objective was to undertake detailed case studies of NTMs among the main traders in markets for selected dairy, meat, and fruit and vegetable products. The third objective was to analyze the socioeconomic and trade impacts from private standards on a sample of low- and medium-income developing countries. Collaborators from 19 institutions in five EU and 11 non-EU countries participated in the project

Key Findings of the NTM-IMPACT Project

This special issue of The World Economy presents research findings from the European Commission–funded project “Assessment of the impacts of non-tariff measures (NTM)—on the competitiveness of the EU and selected trade partners” (NTM-Impact). Directed toward the EU and its trade partners, the project’s first overall objective was to collect and analyze new data on NTMs for key and representative agri-food products. This involved three components: creating a large symmetric international database on the diverse types of governmental standards and regulations used to address food safety and quality issues, constructing measures of heterogeneity among these standards and regulations; and evaluating the effects of the heterogeneity of NTMs on agri-food trade. The second overall objective was to undertake detailed case studies of NTMs among the main traders in markets for selected dairy, meat, and fruit and vegetable products. The third objective was to analyze the socioeconomic and trade impacts from private standards on a sample of low- and medium-income developing countries. Collaborators from 19 institutions in five EU and 11 non-EU countries participated in the project

Mortality-Indexed Annuities

Longevity risk has become a major challenge for governments, individuals, and annuity providers in most countries, and especially its aggregate form, i.e. the risk of unsystematic changes to general mortality patterns, bears a large potential for accumulative losses for insurers. As obvious risk management tools such as (re)insurance or hedging are less suited to manage an annuity provider’s exposure to aggregate longevity risk, the current paper proposes a new type of life annuities with benefits contingent on actual mortality experience, and it also details actuarial aspects of implementation. Similar adaptations to conventional product design exist in investment-linked annuities, and a role model for long-term contracts contingent on actual cost experience is found in German private health insurance so that the idea is not novel in general, but it is in the context of longevity risk. By not or re-transferring the systematic longevity risk insurers may avoid accumulative losses so that the primary focus in an extensive Monte-Carlo simulation is on the question of whether and to what extent such products are also advantageous for policyholders in contrast to a comparable conventional annuity product

Adaptive Financial Regulation and RegTech: A Concept Article on Realistic Protection for Victims of Bank Failures

Frustrated by the seeming inability of regulators and prosecutors to hold bank executives to account for losses inflicted by their companies before, during, and since the financial crisis of 2008, some scholars have suggested that private-attorney-general suits such as class action and shareholder derivative suits might achieve better results. While a few isolated suits might be successful in cases where there is provable fraud, such remedies are no general panacea for preventing large-scale bank-inflicted losses. Large losses are nearly always the result of unforeseeable or suddenly changing economic conditions, poor business judgment, or inadequate regulatory supervision—usually a combination of all three. Yet regulators face an increasingly complex task in supervising modern financial institutions. This Article explains how the challenge has become so difficult. It argues for preserving regulatory discretion rather than reducing it through formal congressional direction. The Article also asserts that regulators have to develop their own sophisticated methods of automated supervision. Although also not a panacea, the development of “RegTech” solutions will help clear away volumes of work that understaffed and underfunded regulators cannot keep up with. RegTech will not eliminate policy considerations, nor will it render regulatory decisions noncontroversial. Nevertheless, a sophisticated deployment of RegTech should help focus regulatory discretion and public-policy debate on the elements of regulation where choices really matter

TECHNICAL BARRIERS IN THE GLOBAL POULTRY MARKET: A SEARCH FOR 'MISSING TRADE'

This paper was presented at the INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS SYMPOSIUM in Auckland, New Zealand, January 18-19, 2001. The Symposium was sponsored by: the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, the Venture Trust, Massey University, New Zealand, and the Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies, Massey University. Dietary changes, especially in developing countries, are driving a massive increase in demand for livestock products. The objective of this symposium was to examine the consequences of this phenomenon, which some have even called a "revolution." How are dietary patterns changing, and can increased demands for livestock products be satisfied from domestic resources? If so, at what cost? What will be the flow-on impacts, for example, in terms of increased demands for feedgrains and the pressures for change within marketing systems? A supply-side response has been the continued development of large-scale, urban-based industrial livestock production systems that in many cases give rise to environmental concerns. If additional imports seem required, where will they originate and what about food security in the importing regions? How might market access conditions be re-negotiated to make increased imports achievable? Other important issues discussed involved food safety, animal health and welfare and the adoption of biotechnology, and their interactions with the negotiation of reforms to domestic and trade policies. Individual papers from this conference are available on AgEcon Search. If you would like to see the complete agenda and set of papers from this conference, please visit the IATRC Symposium web page at: http://www1.umn.edu/iatrc.intro.htmInternational Relations/Trade,

Can Better Working Conditions Improve the Performance of SMEs? An International Literature Review

[Excerpt] It is widely recognized that competitive private enterprise is the principal source of economic growth and wealth globally and makes a substantial contribution to poverty reduction. Although large and multinational enterprises have the higher public profile, the majority of businesses are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). They are estimated to be responsible for over 50 per cent of the new jobs created globally and, in most developing and emerging countries, they also employ more people than do large enterprises. Given their importance as employers, SMEs clearly have the potential to contribute to the social and economic progress for workers and their communities. However, many SMEs – particularly those in developing and emerging countries – are not achieving this potential. Frequently, their employment is in low-quality and low-skilled jobs that offer low wages under poor and unsafe working conditions. In addition, SMEs often fall short in terms of productivity, competitiveness and market share. The ILO has long been convinced that, by improving working conditions, safety and skills in SMES, productivity and profitability can also be improved: a win-win scenario that is good for workers, enterprise owner, communities and economies. In June 2012, specialists from four ILO departments came together to implement a joint programme of work to explore how to help and encourage SMEs to achieve this. This independent research review was commissioned by ILO in order to contribute to establishing a solid empirical basis for future research and interventions. It reviews the empirical relevance of the assumption that a win-win scenario exists in SMEs, especially in the context of developing economies. It also seeks to identify the factors or conditions that influence its emergence. More broadly, the report builds upon a thorough review of international literature to present responses to a range of enquiries relating to the links between working conditions, safety and health, skills and productivity. Not surprisingly, the answers contained in this report are often conditional and are far from categorical. Although the report suggests that a win−win scenario may exist, in certain circumstances, it also underlines that more empirical research is needed, particularly in developing and emerging economies