A Study of Panel Logit Model and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Financial Distress Periods

The purpose of this paper is to present two different approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services

Penghasilan manual rjngkas penggunaan alat Total Station Sokkia Set5f dan Perisian Sdr Mapping & Design untuk automasi ukur topografi

Projek ini dilaksanakan untuk menghasilkan manual ringkas penggunaan alat Total Station Sokkia SET5F dan Perisian SDR Mapping & Design dalam menghasilkan pelan topografi yang lengkap mengikut konsep field to finish. Manual telah dihasilkan dalam dua bentuk iaitu buku dan CD-ROM. Manual ini telah dinilai berdasarkan data yang diperolehi daripada 7 orang responden melalui kaedah Borang Penilaian Manual. Analisis data dilakukan menggunakan perisian SPSS versi 11.0. Hasil analisis skor min menunjukkan kesemua responden bersetuju bahawa manual dalam bentuk buku ini menarik Min ( M ) ^ ^ dan Sisihan Piawai (SD) = .535 tetapi kurang interaktif (M) = 2.29 dan (SD) = 0.488. Berbanding dengan manual dalam format CD-ROM yang mencatat nilai (M) = 3.57 dan (SD) = 0.535 semua responden bersetuju bahawa manual ini mesra pengguna dan lebih interakti

Different distance measures for fuzzy linear regression with Monte Carlo methods

The aim of this study was to determine the best distance measure for estimating the fuzzy linear regression model parameters with Monte Carlo (MC) methods. It is pointed out that only one distance measure is used for fuzzy linear regression with MC methods within the literature. Therefore, three different definitions of distance measure between two fuzzy numbers are introduced. Estimation accuracies of existing and proposed distance measures are explored with the simulation study. Distance measures are compared to each other in terms of estimation accuracy; hence this study demonstrates that the best distance measures to estimate fuzzy linear regression model parameters with MC methods are the distance measures defined by Kaufmann and Gupta (Introduction to fuzzy arithmetic theory and applications. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York, 1991), Heilpern-2 (Fuzzy Sets Syst 91(2):259–268, 1997) and Chen and Hsieh (Aust J Intell Inf Process Syst 6(4):217–229, 2000). One the other hand, the worst distance measure is the distance measure used by Abdalla and Buckley (Soft Comput 11:991–996, 2007; Soft Comput 12:463–468, 2008). These results would be useful to enrich the studies that have already focused on fuzzy linear regression models

Latent class analysis for segmenting preferences of investment bonds

Market segmentation is a key component of conjoint analysis which addresses consumer preference heterogeneity. Members in a segment are assumed to be homogenous in their views and preferences when worthing an item but distinctly heterogenous to members of other segments. Latent class methodology is one of the several conjoint segmentation procedures that overcome the limitations of aggregate analysis and a-priori segmentation. The main benefit of Latent class models is that market segment membership and regression parameters of each derived segment are estimated simultaneously. The Latent class model presented in this paper uses mixtures of multivariate conditional normal distributions to analyze rating data, where the likelihood is maximized using the EM algorithm. The application focuses on customer preferences for investment bonds described by four attributes; currency, coupon rate, redemption term and price. A number of demographic variables are used to generate segments that are accessible and actionable.peer-reviewe