Posterior analysis of random taste coefficients in air travel behaviour modelling

Increasing use is being made of random coefficients structures, such as mixed logit, in the analysis of air travel choice behaviour. These models have the advantage of being able to retrieve random variations in sensitivities across travellers. An important issue, however, arises in the computation of willingness to pay indicators, such as the valuation of travel time savings, on the basis of randomly distributed coefficients. Indeed, with the standard approach of using simulation of the ratios across random draws, major problems can be caused by outliers, leading to biased trade-offs, which in turn lead to major issues in policy analyses. Here, a different approach is explored, making use of individual-specific draws from the random distributions, conditioned on the observed sequence of choices for each respondent. An analysis making use of stated preference data for airport and airline choice confirms the advantages of the approach using conditional draws, producing much more realistic distributional patterns for a range of willingness to pay indicators

VIEWS AND REVIEWS: 1983-1988

Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

A statistical approach to the problem of negatives in input-output analysis

Models;econometrics

SCALE, SIZE, TECHNOLOGY AND STRUCTURE: A PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE

Industrial Organization,

Fourth Annual Report: Agricultural Sector Analysis in Thailand

This Fourth Annual Report summarizes accomplishments of the Agricultural Sector Analysis Project in Thailand during fiscal year 1977 and relates these accomplishments to past work progress as well as to projected work for fiscal year 1978. Accomplishments described in this report are a result of the cooperative research effort being carried out by the Division of Agricultural Economics (DAE) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Royal Thai Government, and the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development of Iowa State University. The cooperative research effort is funded by the United States Agency for International Development and the Royal Thai Government. This summary describes one phase of a sector analysis project being undertaken to provide models and empirical analysis which can aid development and policies for agriculture in Thailand.https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/dae-card_sectoranalysis/1011/thumbnail.jp

The role of longevity risk in Hungary

In this paper, I analyze the role of longevity risk in Hungary in the public pension system and the life annuity segment of the life insurance market, which are two primary financial sectors of relevance to this special type of actuarial risk, using state-of-the- art econometric methodology. To this end, I present an overview and the mathematical background of several important current mortality forecasting techniques from the Lee–Carter model up to unifying paradigm of the Age–Period–Cohort family of models. After presenting the findings of a case study on the public pension system based on the paper of Bajk ́o, Maknics, T ́oth and V ́ekas, I conclude that longevity risk jeopardizes the sustainability of the Hungarian public pension system in the long run. In another case study, I present an analysis of the role of longevity risk in the pre- mium of private pension annuities, a relevant topic due to recent changes in a law on Hungarian voluntary pension funds, following an earlier analysis of M ́ajer and Kov ́acs. Based on the criterion on out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, I find that the Cairns–Blake– Dowd mortality forecasting model aimed specifically at modeling old-age mortality outperforms the Lee–Carter model applied by M ́ajer and Kov ́acs . Based on numerical results, I finally conclude that the role of longevity risk in the Hungarian life annuity mar- ket has increased significantly in the past decade and is likely to further increase in the future

The Ineffectiveness of Effective Tax Rates on Business Investment

In his Fisher-Schultz Lecture, Martin Feldstein examined the effects of non-neutral tax rules on business investment by estimating three econometric models, and he concluded that "the rising rate of inflation has, because of the structure of existing U.S. tax rules, substantially discouraged investment in the past 15 years." In a detailed examination of Feldstein's Effective Tax Rate model and a less extensive review of his other formulations (Neoclassical and Return-Over-Cost models), a number of important and independent criticisms are advanced. Our results from examining all three models suggest strongly that taxes have not adversely affected capital formation during the recent episode of inflation, a conclusion consistent with the relatively robust levels of net investment between 1965 and 1981 actually shown in the newly benchmarked National Income data.

Factors Affecting Knowledge Sharing in Virtual Learning Teams (VLTs) in Distance Education

This study asserts that knowledge sharing (a component of knowledge management) in distance education virtual learning teams (VLTs) is important for successful collaborative learning and that various factors characterizing person and environment can impact VLT members\u27 knowledge sharing behavior. Factors under the category of person are VLT members\u27 competencies for working on VLTs, and their learning goal orientation and performance goal orientation. Factors under VLT environment are social presence in the VLT, the VLT learning community, satisfaction with the VLT, task type, and instructor strategies. Knowledge sharing is defined as a behavior in which VLT members impart their expertise, insight, or understanding to other members in the VLT or to the entire team, intending for the recipients to have that knowledge in common with themselves, the sharers. The study used Bandura\u27s (1986) model of triadic reciprocal causation as a theoretical framework. The model is suitable for this research because it considers relationships between person, environment, and behavior. First, the study identified variables that are directly related to knowledge sharing. Next, the study validated those constructs. After the constructs had been validated, they were entered into a knowledge sharing measurement model. The study empirically tested a measurement model with five latent variables, taking into account the measurement error. Next, the study cross-validated the model with multiple groups drawn from the same sample. The sample consisted of data from 1,374 participants matriculated in graduate and undergraduate programs at an online university. The data were analyzed using split sample methodology, multiple regression analysis, and structural equation modeling techniques (factor analysis and latent variable structural equation modeling- SEM). The study\u27s findings suggest that there is a direct predictive relationship between knowledge sharing and competencies for working on VLTs, learning environment, social presence, task type, and mediating relationships for learning community, social presence, and task type in the knowledge sharing model. This study contributes to research, theory, and practice. It concludes by presenting a knowledge sharing model that can be reevaluated with distance education student populations at various kinds of distance education institutions

Analyzing Inventory Investment

macroeconomics, inventory investment