120,569 research outputs found
Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design
This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability
assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design
processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the
nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems
engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability
requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a
statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of
assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert
judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from
those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts
in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much
more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability
potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle.
An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale
systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for
methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses
that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a
number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework
that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the
design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287],
[arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at
http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science
(http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics
(http://www.imstat.org
Methods of Technical Prognostics Applicable to Embedded Systems
HlavnĂ cĂlem dizertace je poskytnutĂ ucelenĂ©ho pohledu na problematiku technickĂ© prognostiky, kterĂĄ nachĂĄzĂ uplatnÄnĂ v tzv. prediktivnĂ ĂșdrĆŸbÄ zaloĆŸenĂ© na trvalĂ©m monitorovĂĄnĂ zaĆĂzenĂ a odhadu ĂșrovnÄ degradace systĂ©mu Äi jeho zbĂœvajĂcĂ ĆŸivotnosti a to zejmĂ©na v oblasti komplexnĂch zaĆĂzenĂ a strojĆŻ. V souÄasnosti je technickĂĄ diagnostika pomÄrnÄ dobĆe zmapovanĂĄ a reĂĄlnÄ nasazenĂĄ na rozdĂl od technickĂ© prognostiky, kterĂĄ je stĂĄle rozvĂjejĂcĂm se oborem, kterĂœ ovĆĄem postrĂĄdĂĄ vÄtĆĄĂ mnoĆŸstvĂ reĂĄlnĂœch aplikaci a navĂc ne vĆĄechny metody jsou dostateÄnÄ pĆesnĂ© a aplikovatelnĂ© pro embedded systĂ©my. DizertaÄnĂ prĂĄce pĆinĂĄĆĄĂ pĆehled zĂĄkladnĂch metod pouĆŸitelnĂœch pro ĂșÄely predikce zbĂœvajĂcĂ uĆŸitnĂ© ĆŸivotnosti, jsou zde popsĂĄny metriky pomocĂ, kterĂœch je moĆŸnĂ© jednotlivĂ© pĆĂstupy porovnĂĄvat aĆ„ uĆŸ z pohledu pĆesnosti, ale takĂ© i z pohledu vĂœpoÄetnĂ nĂĄroÄnosti. Jedno z dizertaÄnĂch jader tvoĆĂ doporuÄenĂ a postup pro vĂœbÄr vhodnĂ© prognostickĂ© metody s ohledem na prognostickĂĄ kritĂ©ria. DalĆĄĂm dizertaÄnĂm jĂĄdrem je pĆedstavenĂ tzv. ÄĂĄsticovĂ©ho filtrovanĂ (particle filtering) vhodnĂ© pro model-based prognostiku s ovÄĆenĂm jejich implementace a porovnĂĄnĂm. HlavnĂ dizertaÄnĂ jĂĄdro reprezentuje pĆĂpadovou studii pro velmi aktuĂĄlnĂ tĂ©ma prognostiky Li-Ion baterii s ohledem na trvalĂ© monitorovĂĄnĂ. PĆĂpadovĂĄ studie demonstruje proces prognostiky zaloĆŸenĂ© na modelu a srovnĂĄvĂĄ moĆŸnĂ© pĆĂstupy jednak pro odhad doby pĆed vybitĂm baterie, ale takĂ© sleduje moĆŸnĂ© vlivy na degradaci baterie. SouÄĂĄstĂ prĂĄce je zĂĄkladnĂ ovÄĆenĂ modelu Li-Ion baterie a nĂĄvrh prognostickĂ©ho procesu.The main aim of the thesis is to provide a comprehensive overview of technical prognosis, which is applied in the condition based maintenance, based on continuous device monitoring and remaining useful life estimation, especially in the field of complex equipment and machinery. Nowadays technical prognosis is still evolving discipline with limited number of real applications and is not so well developed as technical diagnostics, which is fairly well mapped and deployed in real systems. Thesis provides an overview of basic methods applicable for prediction of remaining useful life, metrics, which can help to compare the different approaches both in terms of accuracy and in terms of computational/deployment cost. One of the research cores consists of recommendations and guide for selecting the appropriate forecasting method with regard to the prognostic criteria. Second thesis research core provides description and applicability of particle filtering framework suitable for model-based forecasting. Verification of their implementation and comparison is provided. The main research topic of the thesis provides a case study for a very actual Li-Ion battery health monitoring and prognostics with respect to continuous monitoring. The case study demonstrates the prognostic process based on the model and compares the possible approaches for estimating both the runtime and capacity fade. Proposed methodology is verified on real measured data.
Search based software engineering: Trends, techniques and applications
© ACM, 2012. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of ACM for your personal use. Not for redistribution. The definitive version is available from the link below.In the past five years there has been a dramatic increase in work on Search-Based Software Engineering (SBSE), an approach to Software Engineering (SE) in which Search-Based Optimization (SBO) algorithms are used to address problems in SE. SBSE has been applied to problems throughout the SE lifecycle, from requirements and project planning to maintenance and reengineering. The approach is attractive because it offers a suite of adaptive automated and semiautomated solutions in situations typified by large complex problem spaces with multiple competing and conflicting objectives.
This article provides a review and classification of literature on SBSE. The work identifies research trends and relationships between the techniques applied and the applications to which they have been applied and highlights gaps in the literature and avenues for further research.EPSRC and E
Software cost estimation
The paper gives an overview of the state of the art of software cost estimation (SCE). The main questions to be answered in the paper are: (1) What are the reasons for overruns of budgets and planned durations? (2) What are the prerequisites for estimating? (3) How can software development effort be estimated? (4) What can software project management expect from SCE models, how accurate are estimations which are made using these kind of models, and what are the pros and cons of cost estimation models
Failure mode prediction and energy forecasting of PV plants to assist dynamic maintenance tasks by ANN based models
In the field of renewable energy, reliability analysis techniques combining the operating time of the system with the observation of operational and environmental conditions, are gaining importance over time.
In this paper, reliability models are adapted to incorporate monitoring data on operating assets, as well as information on their environmental conditions, in their calculations. To that end, a logical decision tool based on two artificial neural networks models is presented. This tool allows updating assets reliability analysis according to changes in operational and/or environmental conditions.
The proposed tool could easily be automated within a supervisory control and data acquisition system, where reference values and corresponding warnings and alarms could be now dynamically generated using the tool. Thanks to this capability, on-line diagnosis and/or potential asset degradation prediction can be certainly improved.
Reliability models in the tool presented are developed according to the available amount of failure data and are used for early detection of degradation in energy production due to power inverter and solar trackers functional failures.
Another capability of the tool presented in the paper is to assess the economic risk associated with the system under existing conditions and for a certain period of time. This information can then also be used to trigger preventive maintenance activities
O&M Models for Ocean Energy Converters: Calibrating through Real Sea Data
Of the cost centres that combine to result in Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE), O&M costs play a significant part. Several developers have calculated component costs, demonstrating how they can become commercially competitive with other forms of renewable energy. However, there are uncertainties relating to the O&M figures that can only be reduced through lessons learned at sea. This work presents an O&M model calibrated with data from real sea experience of a wave energy device deployed at the Biscay Marine energy Platform (BiMEP): the OPERA O&M Model. Two additional case studies, utilising two other O&M calculation methodologies, are presented for comparison with the OPERA O&M Model. The second case study assumes the inexistence of an O&M model, utilising a Simplified Approach. The third case study applies DTOceanâs (a design tool for ocean energy arrays) O&M module. The results illustrate the potential advantages of utilising real sea data for the calibration and development of an O&M model. The Simplified Approach was observed to overestimate LCOE when compared to the OPERA O&M Model. This work also shows that O&M models can be used for the definition of optimal maintenance plans to assist with OPEX reduction.The authors are grateful to the European commission for funding the OPERA and EnFAIT projects as part of the Horizon 2020 framework. The authors also thankful to Oceantec-Idom for providing feedback to OPERA modelâs inputs. A special thanks to Shona Pennock and Donald Noble for their diligent proofreading of this paper
Software Measurement Activities in Small and Medium Enterprises: an Empirical Assessment
An empirical study for evaluating the proper implementation of measurement/metric programs in software companies in one area of Turkey is presented. The research questions are discussed and validated with the help of senior software
managers (more than 15 yearsâ experience) and then used for interviewing a variety of medium and small scale software companies in Ankara. Observations show that there is a
common reluctance/lack of interest in utilizing measurements/metrics despite the fact that they are well known in the industry. A side product of this research is that internationally recognized standards such as ISO and CMMI are pursued if they are a part of project/job
requirements; without these requirements, introducing those standards to the companies remains as a long-term target to increase quality
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