When Backpressure Meets Predictive Scheduling

Motivated by the increasing popularity of learning and predicting human user behavior in communication and computing systems, in this paper, we investigate the fundamental benefit of predictive scheduling, i.e., predicting and pre-serving arrivals, in controlled queueing systems. Based on a lookahead window prediction model, we first establish a novel equivalence between the predictive queueing system with a \emph{fully-efficient} scheduling scheme and an equivalent queueing system without prediction. This connection allows us to analytically demonstrate that predictive scheduling necessarily improves system delay performance and can drive it to zero with increasing prediction power. We then propose the \textsf{Predictive Backpressure (PBP)} algorithm for achieving optimal utility performance in such predictive systems. \textsf{PBP} efficiently incorporates prediction into stochastic system control and avoids the great complication due to the exponential state space growth in the prediction window size. We show that \textsf{PBP} can achieve a utility performance that is within $O(\epsilon)$ of the optimal, for any $\epsilon>0$, while guaranteeing that the system delay distribution is a \emph{shifted-to-the-left} version of that under the original Backpressure algorithm. Hence, the average packet delay under \textsf{PBP} is strictly better than that under Backpressure, and vanishes with increasing prediction window size. This implies that the resulting utility-delay tradeoff with predictive scheduling beats the known optimal $[O(\epsilon), O(\log(1/\epsilon))]$ tradeoff for systems without prediction

Sharing delay information in service systems: a literature survey

Service providers routinely share information about upcoming waiting times with their customers, through delay announcements. The need to effectively manage the provision of these announcements has led to a substantial growth in the body of literature which is devoted to that topic. In this survey paper, we systematically review the relevant literature, summarize some of its key ideas and findings, describe the main challenges that the different approaches to the problem entail, and formulate research directions that would be interesting to consider in future work

LSTM Networks for Data-Aware Remaining Time Prediction of Business Process Instances

Predicting the completion time of business process instances would be a very helpful aid when managing processes under service level agreement constraints. The ability to know in advance the trend of running process instances would allow business managers to react in time, in order to prevent delays or undesirable situations. However, making such accurate forecasts is not easy: many factors may influence the required time to complete a process instance. In this paper, we propose an approach based on deep Recurrent Neural Networks (specifically LSTMs) that is able to exploit arbitrary information associated to single events, in order to produce an as-accurate-as-possible prediction of the completion time of running instances. Experiments on real-world datasets confirm the quality of our proposal.Comment: Article accepted for publication in 2017 IEEE Symposium on Deep Learning (IEEE DL'17) @ SSC

Conformance checking and performance improvement in scheduled processes: A queueing-network perspective

Service processes, for example in transportation, telecommunications or the health sector, are the backbone of today's economies. Conceptual models of service processes enable operational analysis that supports, e.g., resource provisioning or delay prediction. In the presence of event logs containing recorded traces of process execution, such operational models can be mined automatically.In this work, we target the analysis of resource-driven, scheduled processes based on event logs. We focus on processes for which there exists a pre-defined assignment of activity instances to resources that execute activities. Specifically, we approach the questions of conformance checking (how to assess the conformance of the schedule and the actual process execution) and performance improvement (how to improve the operational process performance). The first question is addressed based on a queueing network for both the schedule and the actual process execution. Based on these models, we detect operational deviations and then apply statistical inference and similarity measures to validate the scheduling assumptions, thereby identifying root-causes for these deviations. These results are the starting point for our technique to improve the operational performance. It suggests adaptations of the scheduling policy of the service process to decrease the tardiness (non-punctuality) and lower the flow time. We demonstrate the value of our approach based on a real-world dataset comprising clinical pathways of an outpatient clinic that have been recorded by a real-time location system (RTLS). Our results indicate that the presented technique enables localization of operational bottlenecks along with their root-causes, while our improvement technique yields a decrease in median tardiness and flow time by more than 20%

A Literature Review on Predictive Monitoring of Business Processes

Oleme läbi vaadanud mitmesuguseid ennetava jälgimise meetodeid äriprotsessides. Prognoositavate seirete eesmärk on aidata ettevõtetel oma eesmärke saavutada, aidata neil valida õige ärimudel, prognoosida tulemusi ja aega ning muuta äriprotsessid riskantsemaks. Antud väitekirjaga oleme hoolikalt kogunud ja üksikasjalikult läbi vaadanud selle väitekirja teemal oleva kirjanduse. Kirjandusuuringu tulemustest ja tähelepanekutest lähtuvalt oleme hoolikalt kavandanud ennetava jälgimisraamistiku. Raamistik on juhendiks ettevõtetele ja teadlastele, teadustöötajatele, kes uurivad selles valdkonnas ja ettevõtetele, kes soovivad neid tehnikaid oma valdkonnas rakendada.The goal of predictive monitoring is to help the business achieve their goals, help them take the right business path, predict outcomes, estimate delivery time, and make business processes risk aware. In this thesis, we have carefully collected and reviewed in detail all literature which falls in this process mining category. The objective of the thesis is to design a Predictive Monitoring Framework and classify the different predictive monitoring techniques. The framework acts as a guide for researchers and businesses. Researchers who are investigating in this field and businesses who want to apply these techniques in their respective field