DYNAMIC FREEWAY TRAVEL TIME PREDICTION USING SINGLE LOOP DETECTOR AND INCIDENT DATA

The accurate estimation of travel time is valuable for a variety of transportation applications such as freeway performance evaluation and real-time traveler information. Given the extensive availability of traffic data collected by intelligent transportation systems, a variety of travel time estimation methods have been developed. Despite limited success under light traffic conditions, traditional corridor travel time prediction methods have suffered various drawbacks. First, most of these methods are developed based on data generated by dual-loop detectors that contain average spot speeds. However, single-loop detectors (and other devices that emulate its operation) are the most commonly used devices in traffic monitoring systems. There has not been a reliable methodology for travel time prediction based on data generated by such devices due to the lack of speed measurements. Moreover, the majority of existing studies focus on travel time estimation. Secondly, the effect of traffic progression along the freeway has not been considered in the travel time prediction process. Moreover, the impact of incidents on travel time estimates has not been effectively accounted for in existing studies.The objective of this dissertation is to develop a methodology for dynamic travel time prediction based on continuous data generated by single-loop detectors (and similar devices) and incident reports generated by the traffic monitoring system. This method involves multiple-step-ahead prediction for flow rate and occupancy in real time. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model is developed with an embedded adaptive predictor. This predictor adjusts the prediction error based on traffic data that becomes available every five minutes at each station. The impact of incidents is evaluated based on estimates of incident duration and the queue incurred.Tests and comparative analyses show that this method is able to capture the real-time characteristics of the traffic and provide more accurate travel time estimates particularly when incidents occur. The sensitivities of the models to the variations of the flow and occupancy data are analyzed and future research has been identified.The potential of this methodology in dealing with less than perfect data sources has been demonstrated. This provides good opportunity for the wide application of the proposed method since single-loop type detectors are most extensively installed in various intelligent transportation system deployments

Various Methods for Queue Length and Traffic Volume Estimation Using Probe Vehicle Trajectories

Probe vehicles, like mobile sensors, can provide rich information about traffic conditions in transportation networks. The rapid development of connected vehicle technology and the emergence of ride-hailing services have enabled the collection of a huge amount of trajectory data of the probe vehicles. Attribute to the scale and the accessibility, the trajectory data have become a potential substitute for the widely used fixed-location sensors in terms of the performance measures of the transportation networks. There has been some literature estimating traffic volume and queue length at signalized intersections using the trajectory data. However, some of the existing methods require the prior information about the distribution of queue lengths and the penetration rate of the probe vehicles, which might vary a lot both spatially and temporally and usually are not known in real life. Some other methods can only work when the penetration rate of the probe vehicles is sufficiently high. To overcome the limitations of the existing literature, this paper proposes a series of novel methods for queue length and traffic volume estimation. The validation results show that the methods are accurate enough for mid-term and long-term performance measures and traffic signal control, even when the penetration rate is very low. Therefore, the methods are ready for large-scale real-field applications.Comment: Transportation network sensing using probe vehicle trajectorie

Methods for Utilizing Connected Vehicle Data in Support of Traffic Bottleneck Management

The decision to select the best Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) technologies from available options has always been a challenging task. The availability of connected vehicle/automated vehicle (CV/AV) technologies in the near future is expected to add to the complexity of the ITS investment decision-making process. The goal of this research is to develop a multi-criteria decision-making analysis (MCDA) framework to support traffic agencies’ decision-making process with consideration of CV/AV technologies. The decision to select between technology alternatives is based on identified performance measures and criteria, and constraints associated with each technology. Methods inspired by the literature were developed for incident/bottleneck detection and back-of-queue (BOQ) estimation and warning based on connected vehicle (CV) technologies. The mobility benefits of incident/bottleneck detection with different technologies were assessed using microscopic simulation. The performance of technology alternatives was assessed using simulated CV and traffic detector data in a microscopic simulation environment to be used in the proposed MCDA method for the purpose of alternative selection. In addition to assessing performance measures, there are a number of constraints and risks that need to be assessed in the alternative selection process. Traditional alternative analyses based on deterministic return on investment analysis are unable to capture the risks and uncertainties associated with the investment problem. This research utilizes a combination of a stochastic return on investment and a multi-criteria decision analysis method referred to as the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to select between ITS deployment alternatives considering emerging technologies. The approach is applied to an ITS investment case study to support freeway bottleneck management. The results of this dissertation indicate that utilizing CV data for freeway segments is significantly more cost-effective than using point detectors in detecting incidents and providing travel time estimates one year after CV technology becomes mandatory for all new vehicles and for corridors with moderate to heavy traffic. However, for corridors with light, there is a probability of CV deployment not being effective in the first few years due to low measurement reliability of travel times and high latency of incident detection, associated with smaller sample sizes of the collected data

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationThe Active Traffic and Demand Management (ATDM) initiative aims to integrate various management strategies and control measures so as to achieve the mobility, environment and sustainability goals. To support the active monitoring and management of real-world complex traffic conditions, the first objective of this dissertation is to develop a travel time reliability estimation and prediction methodology that can provide informed decisions for the management and operation agencies and travelers. A systematic modeling framework was developed to consider a corridor with multiple bottlenecks, and a series of close-form formulas was derived to quantify the travel time distribution under both stochastic demand and capacity, with possible on-ramp and off-ramp flow changes. Traffic state estimation techniques are often used to guide operational management decisions, and accurate traffic estimates are critically needed in ATDM applications designed for reducing instability, volatility and emissions in the transportation system. By capturing the essential forward and backward wave propagation characteristics under possible random measurement errors, this dissertation proposes a unified representation with a simple but theoretically sound explanation for traffic observations under free-flow, congested and dynamic transient conditions. This study also presents a linear programming model to quantify the value of traffic measurements, in a heterogeneous data environment with fixed sensors, Bluetooth readers and GPS sensors. It is important to design comprehensive traffic control measures that can systematically address deteriorating congestion and environmental issues. To better evaluate and assess the mobility and environmental benefits of the transportation improvement plans, this dissertation also discusses a cross-resolution modeling framework for integrating a microscopic emission model with the existing mesoscopic traffic simulation model. A simplified car-following model-based vehicle trajectory construction method is used to generate the high-resolution vehicle trajectory profiles and resulting emission output. In addition, this dissertation discusses a number of important issues for a cloud computing-based software system implementation. A prototype of a reliability-based traveler information provision and dissemination system is developed to offer a rich set of travel reliability information for the general public and traffic management and planning organizations

Characterizing Queue Dynamics at Signalized Intersections From Probe Vehicle Data

Probe vehicles instrumented with location-tracking technologies have become increasingly popular for collecting traffic flow data. While probe vehicle data have been used for estimating speeds and travel times, there has been limited research on predicting queuing dynamics from such data. In this research, a methodology is developed for identifying the travel lanes of the GPS-instrumented vehicles when they are standing in a queue at signalized intersections with multilane approaches. In particular, the proposed methodology exploits the unequal queue lengths across the lanes to infer the specific lanes the probe vehicles occupy. Various supervised and unsupervised clustering methods were developed and tested on data generated from a microsimulation model. The generated data included probe vehicle positions and shockwave speeds predicated on their trajectories. Among the tested methods, a Bayesian approach that employs probability density functions estimated by bivariate statistical mixture models was found to be effective in identifying the lanes. The results from lane identification were then used to predict queue lengths for each travel lane. Subsequently, the trajectories for non-probe vehicles within the queue were predicted. As a potential application, fuel consumption for all vehicles in the queue is estimated and evaluated for accuracy. The accuracies of the models for lane identification. queue length prediction, and fuel consumption estimation were evaluated at varying levels of demand and probe-vehicle market penetrations. In general, as the market penetration increases, the accuracy improves. For example. when the market penetration rate is about 40%, the queue length estimation accuracy reaches 90%. The dissertation includes various numerical experiments and the performance of the models under numerous scenarios

Performance Predication Model for Advance Traffic Control System (ATCS) using field data

Reductions in capital expenditure revenues have created greater demands from users for quality service from existing facilities at lower costs forcing agencies to evaluate the performance of projects in more comprehensive and greener ways. The use of Adaptive Traffic Controls Systems (ATCS) is a step in the right direction by enabling practitioners and engineers to develop and implement traffic optimization strategies to achieve greater capacity out of the existing systems by optimizing traffic signal based on real time traffic demands and flow pattern. However, the industry is lagging in developing modeling tools for the ATCS which can predict the changes in MOEs due to the changes in traffic flow (i.e. volume and/or travel direction) making it difficult for the practitioners to measure the magnitude of the impacts and to develop an appropriate mitigation strategy. The impetus of this research was to explore the potential of utilizing available data from the ATCS for developing prediction models for the critical MOEs and for the entire intersection. Firstly, extensive data collections efforts were initiated to collect data from the intersections in Marion County, Florida. The data collected included volume, geometry, signal operations, and performance for an extended period. Secondly, the field data was scrubbed using macros to develop a clean data set for model development. Thirdly, the prediction models for the MOEs (wait time and queue) for the critical movements were developed using General Linear Regression Modeling techniques and were based on Poisson distribution with log linear function. Finally, the models were validated using the data collected from the intersections within Orange County, Florida. Also, as a part of this research, an Intersection Performance Index (IPI) model, a LOS prediction model for the entire intersection, was developed. This model was based on the MOEs (wait time and queue) for the critical movements. In addition, IPI Thresholds and corresponding intersection capacity designations were developed to establish level of service at the intersection. The IPI values and thresholds were developed on the same principles as Intersection Capacity Utilization (ICU) procedures, tested, and validated against corresponding ICU values and corresponding ICU LOS

An artificial neural network model for predicting freeway work zone delays with big data

Lane closures due to road reconstruction and maintenance have resulted in a major source of non-recurring congestion on freeways. It is extremely important to accurately quantify the associated mobility impact so that a cost-effective work zone schedule and an efficient traffic management plan can be developed. Therefore, the development of a sound model for predicting delays or road users is desirable. A comprehensive literature review on existing work zone delay prediction models (i.e., deterministic queuing model and shock wave model) is conducted in this study, which explores the advantages, disadvantages, and limitations of different modeling approaches. The performance of those models seems restricted to predict congestion impact under space-varying (i.e., road geometry, number of lanes, lane width, etc.) and time-varying (i.e., traffic volume) conditions. To advance the delay prediction accuracy, a multivariate non-linear regression (MNR) model is developed first by incorporating big data to capture the relationship of speed versus the ratio of approaching traffic volume to work zone capacity for work zone delay prediction. The MNR model demonstrates itself able to predict spatio-temporal delays with reasonable accuracy. A more advanced model called ANN-SVM is developed later to further improve the prediction accuracy, which integrates a support vector machine (SVM) model and an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The SVM model is responsible to predict work zone capacity, and the ANN model is responsible to predict delays. The ultimate goal of ANN-SVM aims to predict spatio-temporal delays caused by a work zone on freeways in the statewide of New Jersey subject to road geometry, number of lane closure, and work zone duration in different times of a day and days of a week. There are 274 work zones with complete information for the proposed model development, which are identified by mapping data from different sources, including OpenReach, Plan4Safety, New Jersey Straight Line Diagram (NJSLD), New Jersey Congestion Management System (NJCMS), and INRIX. Big data analytics is used to examining this massive data for developing the proposed model in a reliable and efficient way. A comparative analysis is conducted by comparing the ANN-SVM results with those produced by MNR, RUCM (NJDOT Road User Cost Manual approach), and ANN-HCM (the ANN model with work zone capacity suggested by Highway Capacity Manual). It is found that ANN-SVM in general outperforms other models in terms of prediction accuracy and reliability. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model, an analysis tool, which adapts to ANN-SVM, is developed to produce graphical information. It is worth noting that the analysis tool is very user friendly and can be easily applied to assess the impact of any work zones on New Jersey freeways. This tool can assist transportation agencies visualize bottlenecks and congestion hot spots caused by a work zone, effectively quantify and assess the associated impact, and make suitable decisions (i.e., determining the best starting time of a work zone to minimize delays to the road users). Furthermore, ANN-SVM can be applied to develop, evaluate, and improve traffic management and congestion mitigation plans and to calculate contractor penalty based on cost overruns as well as incentive reward schedule in case of early work competition

What Is an Effective Way to Measure Arterial Demand When It Exceeds Capacity?

This project focused on developing and evaluating methods for estimating demand volume for oversaturated corridors. Measuring demand directly with vehicle sensors is not possible when demand is larger than capacity for an extended period, as the queue grows beyond the sensor, and the flow measurements at a given point cannot exceed the capacity of the section. The main objective of the study was to identify and develop methods that could be implemented in practice based on readily available data. To this end, two methods were proposed: an innovative method based on shockwave theory; and the volume delay function adapted from the Highway Capacity Manual. Both methods primarily rely on probe vehicle speeds (e.g., from INRIX) as the input data and the capacity of the segment or bottleneck being analyzed. The proposed methods were tested with simulation data and validated based on volume data from the field. The results show both methods are effective for estimating the demand volume and produce less than 4% error when tested with field data