Quantifying Long-Term Scientific Impact

The lack of predictability of citation-based measures frequently used to gauge impact, from impact factors to short-term citations, raises a fundamental question: Is there long-term predictability in citation patterns? Here, we derive a mechanistic model for the citation dynamics of individual papers, allowing us to collapse the citation histories of papers from different journals and disciplines into a single curve, indicating that all papers tend to follow the same universal temporal pattern. The observed patterns not only help us uncover basic mechanisms that govern scientific impact but also offer reliable measures of influence that may have potential policy implications

Quantifying the impact of weak, strong, and super ties in scientific careers

Scientists are frequently faced with the important decision to start or terminate a creative partnership. This process can be influenced by strategic motivations, as early career researchers are pursuers, whereas senior researchers are typically attractors, of new collaborative opportunities. Focusing on the longitudinal aspects of scientific collaboration, we analyzed 473 collaboration profiles using an ego-centric perspective which accounts for researcher-specific characteristics and provides insight into a range of topics, from career achievement and sustainability to team dynamics and efficiency. From more than 166,000 collaboration records, we quantify the frequency distributions of collaboration duration and tie-strength, showing that collaboration networks are dominated by weak ties characterized by high turnover rates. We use analytic extreme-value thresholds to identify a new class of indispensable `super ties', the strongest of which commonly exhibit >50% publication overlap with the central scientist. The prevalence of super ties suggests that they arise from career strategies based upon cost, risk, and reward sharing and complementary skill matching. We then use a combination of descriptive and panel regression methods to compare the subset of publications coauthored with a super tie to the subset without one, controlling for pertinent features such as career age, prestige, team size, and prior group experience. We find that super ties contribute to above-average productivity and a 17% citation increase per publication, thus identifying these partnerships - the analog of life partners - as a major factor in science career development.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, 1 Tabl

Problematising upstream technology through speculative design: the case of quantified cats and dogs

There is growing interest in technology that quantifies aspects of our lives. This paper draws on critical practice and speculative design to explore, question and problematise the ultimate consequences of such technology using the quantification of companion animals (pets) as a case study. We apply the concept of ‘moving upstream’ to study such technology and use a qualitative research approach in which both pet owners, and animal behavioural experts, were presented with, and asked to discuss, speculative designs for pet quantification applications, the design of which were extrapolated from contemporary trends. Our findings indicate a strong desire among pet owners for technology that has little scientific justification, whilst our experts caution that the use of technology to augment human-animal communication has the potential to disimprove animal welfare, undermine human-animal bonds, and create human-human conflicts. Our discussion informs wider debates regarding quantification technology

Ocean Drilling Perspectives on Meteorite Impacts

Extraterrestrial impacts that reshape the surfaces of rocky bodies are ubiquitous in the solar system. On early Earth, impact structures may have nurtured the evolution of life. More recently, a large meteorite impact off the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico at the end of the Cretaceous caused the disappearance of 75% of species known from the fossil record, including non-avian dinosaurs, and cleared the way for the dominance of mammals and the eventual evolution of humans. Understanding the fundamental processes associated with impact events is critical to understanding the history of life on Earth, and the potential for life in our solar system and beyond. Scientific ocean drilling has generated a large amount of unique data on impact pro- cesses. In particular, the Yucatán Chicxulub impact is the single largest and most sig- nificant impact event that can be studied by sampling in modern ocean basins, and marine sediment cores have been instrumental in quantifying its environmental, cli- matological, and biological effects. Drilling in the Chicxulub crater has significantly advanced our understanding of fundamental impact processes, notably the formation of peak rings in large impact craters, but these data have also raised new questions to be addressed with future drilling. Within the Chicxulub crater, the nature and thickness of the melt sheet in the central basin is unknown, and an expanded Paleocene hemipelagic section would provide insights to both the recovery of life and the climatic changes that followed the impact. Globally, new cores collected from today’s central Pacific could directly sample the downrange ejecta of this northeast-southwest trending impact. Extraterrestrial impacts have been controversially suggested as primary drivers for many important paleoclimatic and environmental events throughout Earth history. However, marine sediment archives collected via scientific ocean drilling and geo- chemical proxies (e.g., osmium isotopes) provide a long-term archive of major impact events in recent Earth history and show that, other than the end-Cretaceous, impacts do not appear to drive significant environmental changes

Ocean drilling perspectives on meteorite impacts

Extraterrestrial impacts that reshape the surfaces of rocky bodies are ubiquitous in the solar system. On early Earth, impact structures may have nurtured the evolution of life. More recently, a large meteorite impact off the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico at the end of the Cretaceous caused the disappearance of 75% of species known from the fossil record, including non-avian dinosaurs, and cleared the way for the dominance of mammals and the eventual evolution of humans. Understanding the fundamental processes associated with impact events is critical to understanding the history of life on Earth, and the potential for life in our solar system and beyond. Scientific ocean drilling has generated a large amount of unique data on impact processes. In particular, the Yucatán Chicxulub impact is the single largest and most significant impact event that can be studied by sampling in modern ocean basins, and marine sediment cores have been instrumental in quantifying its environmental, climatological, and biological effects. Drilling in the Chicxulub crater has significantly advanced our understanding of fundamental impact processes, notably the formation of peak rings in large impact craters, but these data have also raised new questions to be addressed with future drilling. Within the Chicxulub crater, the nature and thickness of the melt sheet in the central basin is unknown, and an expanded Paleocene hemipelagic section would provide insights to both the recovery of life and the climatic changes that followed the impact. Globally, new cores collected from today’s central Pacific could directly sample the downrange ejecta of this northeast-southwest trending impact. Extraterrestrial impacts have been controversially suggested as primary drivers for many important paleoclimatic and environmental events throughout Earth history. However, marine sediment archives collected via scientific ocean drilling and geochemical proxies (e.g., osmium isotopes) provide a long-term archive of major impact events in recent Earth history and show that, other than the end-Cretaceous, impacts do not appear to drive significant environmental changes

Quantifying trading behavior in financial markets using Google Trends

Crises in financial markets affect humans worldwide. Detailed market data on trading decisions reflect some of the complex human behavior that has led to these crises. We suggest that massive new data sources resulting from human interaction with the Internet may offer a new perspective on the behavior of market participants in periods of large market movements. By analyzing changes in Google query volumes for search terms related to finance, we find patterns that may be interpreted as “early warning signs” of stock market moves. Our results illustrate the potential that combining extensive behavioral data sets offers for a better understanding of collective human behavior

An Integrated Approach for Characterizing Aerosol Climate Impacts and Environmental Interactions

Aerosols exert myriad influences on the earth's environment and climate, and on human health. The complexity of aerosol-related processes requires that information gathered to improve our understanding of climate change must originate from multiple sources, and that effective strategies for data integration need to be established. While a vast array of observed and modeled data are becoming available, the aerosol research community currently lacks the necessary tools and infrastructure to reap maximum scientific benefit from these data. Spatial and temporal sampling differences among a diverse set of sensors, nonuniform data qualities, aerosol mesoscale variabilities, and difficulties in separating cloud effects are some of the challenges that need to be addressed. Maximizing the long-term benefit from these data also requires maintaining consistently well-understood accuracies as measurement approaches evolve and improve. Achieving a comprehensive understanding of how aerosol physical, chemical, and radiative processes impact the earth system can be achieved only through a multidisciplinary, inter-agency, and international initiative capable of dealing with these issues. A systematic approach, capitalizing on modern measurement and modeling techniques, geospatial statistics methodologies, and high-performance information technologies, can provide the necessary machinery to support this objective. We outline a framework for integrating and interpreting observations and models, and establishing an accurate, consistent, and cohesive long-term record, following a strategy whereby information and tools of progressively greater sophistication are incorporated as problems of increasing complexity are tackled. This concept is named the Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON). To encompass the breadth of the effort required, we present a set of recommendations dealing with data interoperability; measurement and model integration; multisensor synergy; data summarization and mining; model evaluation; calibration and validation; augmentation of surface and in situ measurements; advances in passive and active remote sensing; and design of satellite missions. Without an initiative of this nature, the scientific and policy communities will continue to struggle with understanding the quantitative impact of complex aerosol processes on regional and global climate change and air quality