Construction IT in 2030: a scenario planning approach

Summary: This paper presents a scenario planning effort carried out in order to identify the possible futures that construction industry and construction IT might face. The paper provides a review of previous research in the area and introduces the scenario planning approach. It then describes the adopted research methodology. The driving forces of change and main trends, issues and factors determined by focusing on factors related to society, technology, environment, economy and politics are discussed. Four future scenarios developed for the year 2030 are described. These scenarios start from the global view and present the images of the future world. They then focus on the construction industry and the ICT implications. Finally, the preferred scenario determined by the participants of a prospective workshop is presented

Approaches for the anticipation of skill needs in the Transitional Labour Market perspecitve: The Austrian experience

A synthesis of studies regarding anticipation practices in Austria is provided. The theoretical approach combines concepts from transitional labour market theory, the foresight paradigm, institutional approaches to the coordination of education and employment, and the concept of an anticipation system as a social system of knowledge generation and management. The Analysis focuses on four main aspects: (1) the communication structure, (2) the current state of forecasting, (3) anticipation practices at the regional and sector level, and (4) the measurement and matching instruments. The Austrian system is an informal system which emphasises a professionalpolitical approach. It relies mainly on practitioner task forces which work at an informal level. The system also reflects the segmented structure of the education and training system. New developments at the regional level are related to the establishment of the Fachhochschule sector a decade ago. Another strand of development has been regional innovation policy. The regional level serves as a catalyst in setting up more elaborate systems for anticipating skill needs. The criteria for anticipation in a TLM perspective are not fulfilled. In sum, the foresight and transitional labour market approaches could provide several pathways for development. -- Das Paper enthält eine Synthese von Studien über das österreichische Antizipationssystem. Der theoretische Ansatz kombiniert Konzepte der Übergangsarbeitsmärkte, des Vorauschau-Paradigmas, der Koppelung von Bildung und Beschäftigung, und sozialer Wissensproduktion. Vier Aspekte stehen in Vordergrund: (1) die Kommunikationsstruktur, (2) formale Prognosen, (3) Praktiken auf regionaler und sektoraler Ebene, und (4) Mess- und Matching-Instrumente. Das österreichische Antizipationssystem ist ein informelles System auf Basis eines professionell-politischen Ansatzes. Es baut wesentlich auf informellen PraktikerInnen- Arbeitsgruppen auf und reflektiert die segmentierte Struktur des Bildungswesens. Wesentliche Entwicklungsimpulse gehen von der regionalen Ebene aus. Die Kriterien des Ansatzes der Übergangsarbeitsmärkte sind nicht erfüllt und können wichtige Impulse für die Weiterentwicklung geben.

The Diffusion of Regulatory Oversight

The idea of cost-benefit analysis has been spreading internationally for centuries — at least since an American named Benjamin Franklin wrote a letter in 1772 to his British friend, Joseph Priestley, recommending that Priestley weigh the pros and cons of a difficult decision in what Franklin dubbed a “moral or prudential algebra” (Franklin 1772) (more on this letter below). Several recent studies show that the use of benefit-cost analysis (BCA), for both public projects and public regulation of private activities, is now unfolding in countries on every habitable continent around the world (Livermore and Revesz 2013; Quah and Toh 2012; De Francesco 2012; Livermore 2011; Cordova-Novion and Jacobzone 2011). This global diffusion of BCA is intermingled with the global diffusion of regulatory capitalism, in which privatized market actors are supervised by expert regulatory agencies (Levi-Faur 2005; Simmons et al. 2008), and with the international spread of ex ante regulatory precautions to anticipate and prevent risks despite uncertainty (Wiener et al. 2011)

Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News From A Non-linear World

open4siCaggiano acknowledges the financial support received by the Visiting Research Scholar programme offered by the University of MelbourneWe estimate non-linear VARs to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are countercyclical in the US. We deal with the issue of non-fundamentalness due to fiscal foresight by appealing to sums of revisions of expectations of fiscal expenditures. This measure of anticipated fiscal shocks is shown to carry valuable information about future dynamics of public spending. Results based on generalised impulse responses suggest that fiscal spending multipliers in recessions are greater than one, but not statistically larger than those in expansions. However, non-linearities arise when focusing on 'extreme' events, that is, deep recessions versus strong expansionary periods.openCaggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Colombo, Valentina; Nodari, GabrielaCaggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Colombo, Valentina; Nodari, Gabriel

Environmental change and migration: implications for Australia

This paper argues that Australia needs a national policy framework on environmental migration, as climate change and natural disasters could displace potentially  thousands of people in coming years. In the Pacific Islands region, climate change and natural disasters could displace potentially  thousands of people in coming years.  A significant number of these people could end up as environmental migrants to Australia.  This paper argues that Australia needs a national policy framework on environmental migration to manage the new flow of migrants in ways that maximise the benefits, but also minimise the costs to the country, including any increase in irregular migration. Key points: It is likely that an increased number of migrants will arrive in Australia during the next decade as a result of the effects of environmental change in Pacific Island countries. Even if the scale of any environmental migration to Australia can be reduced by supporting adaptation to environmental change in the affected countries, some migration to Australia from the Pacific Island is still likely to occur. Australia needs a national policy framework on environmental migration that includes continuing support for multilateral initiatives on environmental migration, capacity-building in origin and transit countries, and national legislation that leverages existing labour migration programs and targets a limited number of countries

An Assessment of Health-Economic Burden of Obesity Trends with Population-Based Preventive Strategies in a Developed Economy

The burden of obesity varies with age, ethnicity, socio-economic status and state economies. All new projections should hence accommodate population ageing, and other population changes such as immigration, health-care system reform, or technological advances for disease treatment for a comprehensible assessment of global burden. The unfordable and expensive nature for reversing the obesity tide arises from policies developed to combat obesity. Most of these approaches aim at bringing the problem under control, rather than affecting a cure, and obviously require a multi-disciplinary and intensive regimen. Prevention is the only feasible option and is essential for all affected countries. Yet it is not simple to have population based UK-wide strategic framework for tackling obesity. Besides existence of multiple layers of governance, there are clear demarcations between targets in diet; nutrition and physical activity level between regions some of which are not realistic. Population based approaches target policies and process, aiming for a transition towards healthy population diets, activity levels and weight status. It is essential to understand these aspects differ culturally and between and within countries. There are still no clear and appropriate answers about answer when, where, why, and, how costs accrue in obese populations, further long term commitments are required for the same. Most population-based prevention policies are cost effective, largely paying for themselves through future health gains and resulting reductions in health expenditures. Therefore these prevention programs should be high on the scientific and political agendas